Phoenix Raceway is the site of this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race, and it will be the Penske Racing driver of Ryan Blaney that leads the field to the green as the #12 Ford looked blazing fast off the truck during both practice and qualifying on Saturday. The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota of Denny Hamlin will start in 2nd, as he looks to get his season back on track after starting off the year with three straight bad results.
Make sure you check out the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for this race by clicking here!
DraftKings Strategy & Dominators for Phoenix Raceway
- Phoenix is 1-mile flat track, which compares best to Richmond Raceway as well as New Hampshire Motor Speedway. You can also throw in Nashville Superspeedway when analyzing into shorter, flat tracks. Some people also include Martinsville when looking at short, flat tracks, but Martinsville is so much different than Phoenix that I personally am not weighing it very heavily this weekend.
- This is a 312 lap race scheduled for Sunday afternoon, which means we’re looking at 78 FPTS up for grabs for laps led and probably around 120 FPTS for fastest laps, depending on the cautions. With so many dominator points available, that needs to be a focus with your DraftKings lineup.
- Make sure you check out Dustin Maybin’s DraftKings preview for this race by clicking here. It has a ton of great information and history on top lineup construction tactics here at Phoenix.
Dominators
These are the potential dominators for this weekend’s race at Phoenix, and are listed in the order of likelihood according to my projections:
- Ryan Blaney
- Denny Hamlin
- Kyle Busch
- Kyle Larson
- William Byron
- Joey Logano
- Chase Elliott
Some “surprise” dominators that could happen on Sunday include: Martin Truex, Jr., Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Kevin Harvick, and Austin Cindric.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal DraftKings lineup for Phoenixx on Sunday according to my Projections is:
- Denny Hamlin
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Ryan Blaney
- Kevin Harvick
- Bubba Wallace
- Todd Gilliland
DraftKings NASCAR Picks for the Ruoff Mortgage 500
Ryan Blaney ($9,600) – The Penske Fords are always fast at short, flat tracks and this weekend is no exception. Ryan Blaney won the pole on Saturday and also put up some really fast lap times in practice, ranking 2nd-fastest behind Kyle Larson in 15-, 20-, 25-, and 30-lap averages. As far as Phoenix Raceway goes, Young Ryan Blaney struggled here to start out but then in 2019 he started to figure it out. In the last six races at this track, Blaney has four results of 6th or better, three of which were finishes of 4th or better as well. He also led 30+ laps in both Phoenix races last season and should be able to put up a good amount of dominator points from the pole here on Sunday.
Kevin Harvick ($9,100) – Kevin Harvick is masterful at Phoenix Raceway, and with him starting back in 16th on Sunday, his $9,100 salary becomes even more attractive considering the place differential potential. Harvick is a nine-time winner here at Phoenix and hasn’t finished outside of the top 10 in seventeen (not a typo) straight races at this track. Even last year, when this #4 team struggled quite a bit, Harvick finished 7th or better in all four Phoenix Stages and came home with results of 6th and 8th in. when the checkered flag waved over the two races. Looking at practice times this weekend, the #4 Ford ranked 4th or better in 20-, 25-, and 30-lap averages. Don’t over-think this one.
Todd Gilliland ($4,900) – As RotoDoc pointed out in his Action Network betting article this week, Todd Gilliland has a solid history on short, flat tracks in his racing career, and it’s not like he’s racing a back marker car here in the Cup Series even though sportsbooks (and DraftKings) continue to act like he is. At $4,900 and starting back in 33rd, Gilliland basically just needs to get through the entire race here at Phoenix on Sunday and he’s going to deliver sufficient FPTS for his salary with a good amount of upside considering he’s finished 23rd and 20th over the last two weeks. I’ll continue riding the #GillyGang train here as long as DraftKings keeps pricing Todd this low. This is an excellent week to use him and stock up on the “heavy hitter” drivers priced higher.
Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan & RotoDoc
Phoenix Ruoff Mortgage 500 DraftKings Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | DK Salary | Avg Proj FPTS | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | $9,600 | 71.33 | 1 | 04.0 | $135 |
| Kyle Larson | $11,800 | 62.37 | 7 | 03.8 | $189 |
| Chase Elliott | $10,700 | 60.50 | 19 | 06.5 | $177 |
| Joey Logano | $10,400 | 59.43 | 10 | 04.8 | $175 |
| Kyle Busch | $11,200 | 58.65 | 11 | 07.0 | $191 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $9,800 | 58.55 | 20 | 08.2 | $167 |
| Denny Hamlin | $10,100 | 58.42 | 2 | 04.3 | $173 |
| Kevin Harvick | $9,100 | 53.60 | 16 | 05.7 | $170 |
| William Byron | $9,400 | 42.05 | 3 | 08.3 | $224 |
| Christopher Bell | $8,300 | 39.92 | 4 | 08.3 | $208 |
| Tyler Reddick | $8,500 | 38.35 | 12 | 11.8 | $222 |
| Ross Chastain | $8,100 | 38.32 | 17 | 12.7 | $211 |
| Aric Almirola | $7,900 | 35.80 | 5 | 12.7 | $221 |
| Austin Cindric | $7,700 | 35.50 | 8 | 12.0 | $217 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,900 | 33.13 | 15 | 13.8 | $269 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,000 | 33.00 | 36 | 22.3 | $212 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,600 | 28.18 | 13 | 15.5 | $270 |
| Brad Keselowski | $8,200 | 27.78 | 18 | 17.8 | $295 |
| Alex Bowman | $8,700 | 27.67 | 9 | 12.3 | $314 |
| Daniel Suarez | $6,600 | 27.47 | 23 | 21.0 | $240 |
| Bubba Wallace | $6,400 | 25.73 | 27 | 21.2 | $249 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $7,200 | 24.00 | 29 | 23.0 | $300 |
| Cole Custer | $6,200 | 21.67 | 25 | 23.2 | $286 |
| Justin Haley | $6,000 | 21.50 | 28 | 24.0 | $279 |
| Harrison Burton | $5,700 | 21.17 | 24 | 23.2 | $269 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,700 | 20.83 | 26 | 24.2 | $322 |
| Erik Jones | $7,400 | 19.73 | 14 | 19.3 | $375 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,900 | 17.67 | 21 | 22.8 | $334 |
| Todd Gilliland | $4,900 | 15.50 | 33 | 29.7 | $316 |
| Corey Lajoie | $5,300 | 13.00 | 30 | 29.3 | $408 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,100 | 11.83 | 22 | 26.2 | $431 |
| Chase Briscoe | $6,900 | 09.93 | 6 | 20.3 | $695 |
| BJ McLeod | $4,600 | 08.50 | 34 | 33.3 | $541 |
| Garrett Smithley | $4,700 | 07.33 | 35 | 34.3 | $641 |
| Cody Ware | $4,500 | 05.67 | 32 | 33.7 | $794 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,500 | 05.67 | 31 | 33.0 | $971 |
