We’re at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas this weekend, and because it is a brand new race track that the drivers have no experience with, NASCAR gave the teams a practice session on Saturday morning as well as qualifying here on Sunday morning. Unfortunately, same day qualifying makes it absolutely awful for NASCAR Fantasy and DFS players, as we are now into a major time crunch. This week’s DraftKings article is majorly condensed compared to my “normal” stuff, but we’ll get back to the regular breakdowns next week.
Be sure to check out the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for this race by clicking here! Also, enjoy the FREE content that this site offers each week? Consider donating to support by clicking here.
DraftKings Strategy & Dominators for COTA
This race is only scheduled to be 68 laps long, so finishing position and place differential should be more important in our minds when building lineups than a typical race. In recent road course races, we’ve basically seen two drivers pick up the majority of the dominator points: Chase Elliott and Martin Truex, Jr.
With that being said, at the Daytona Road Course race earlier this year, we saw Christopher Bell pick up the 2nd-most fastest laps, although he only ended up with five laps led with that race win.
Optimal Lineup According to Jordan’s Projections
The optimal DraftKings lineup for COTA according to my Projections is:
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Denny Hamlin
- Christopher Bell
Chris Buescher - Michael McDowell
- Chase Briscoe
Confidence Rating = 7.1/10. I like this as a lineup if you want to get off of the Chase Elliott chalk. Not that I would recommend that by any means, but strategy-wise, there’s an opportunity there for you to be different than most. Still, the fact of the matter is that Elliott and Truex are the best road course racers out there, and they both have place differential potential this weekend. The top lineup with those two according to my projections is: Truex, Elliott, Bell, Buescher, Briscoe, and Preece.
GPP / Tournament Picks
Kevin Harvick ($9,700) – Understandably, a lot of people are going to be on Kyle Busch ($9,900) this weekend, as he’s a great road course racer and looked awesome in the Xfinity race on Saturday. But give me the pivot to Kevin Harvick in some lineups. Again, I like Rowdy today, but Harvick intrigues me as well. Looking back over the last two years of Sonoma and Watkins Glen data, Harvick averaged the 3rd-most fastest laps, and he starts 11th here at Circuit of the Americas today, so there’s some place differential potential there.
Christopher Bell ($8,300) – DraftKings under-priced Christopher Bell this weekend, and even though he’s starting inside the top 10, he has top 5 finishing potential and might even win this race today. My projections love Christopher Bell this weekend and he’s actually the 4th-highest projected driver on the slate in terms of average points and 3rd-best when it comes to dollar-per-FPT. Yeah, I’m writing up the most recent road course winner; sue me. I know it’s cliché.
Cash Core Drivers
***NOTE*** I’m not going to waste time writing up Chase Elliott and Martin Truex, Jr. here. We all know they’re the best on this track type, and neither of them are starting inside the top 5.
Chris Buescher ($6,900) – My projections love Chris Buescher this weekend, and it’s not just because he comes it at a nice salary of $6,900. Buescher is a very strong road course racer and ended up qualifying back in 28th, so… yeah. I’m not sure what happened to this #17 Ford in qualifying on Sunday, but Buescher has solid teens potential and could even steal a top 10. He would be a staple in all of my lineups if I was playing today. EDIT: It was a brake issue for Buescher in qualifying. He will drop to the rear on the pace laps if they fix the issue, but that’s not a huge deal.
Chase Briscoe ($6,400) – Another guy that whiffed in qualifying on Sunday was Chase Briscoe, who will roll off the grid from 27th when the EchoPark Texas Grand Prix goes green. Briscoe has a strong road course resumé in the Xfinity Series, and don’t forget that he was running up near and inside the top 10 at the Daytona Road Course earlier this year before his hood flew over his windshield. Oh, and did I mention that he was doing that with no power steering? I put a small bet on Briscoe at 125-to-1 to win earlier this week, so obviously I’m going to love him in DFS, too.
EchoPark Texas Grand Prix DraftKings Driver Projections
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.
| Driver | DraftKings Salary | Avg Proj FPTS | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Truex Jr | $10,600 | 58.32 | 17 | 03.7 | $182 |
| Chase Elliott | $10,500 | 57.32 | 8 | 02.3 | $183 |
| Denny Hamlin | $10,100 | 49.73 | 19 | 06.5 | $203 |
| Christopher Bell | $8,300 | 46.18 | 10 | 05.8 | $180 |
| Kyle Busch | $9,900 | 45.62 | 4 | 04.3 | $217 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,300 | 44.67 | 24 | 11.5 | $208 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,900 | 42.33 | 28 | 14.8 | $163 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,200 | 41.33 | 2 | 04.7 | $247 |
| William Byron | $9,200 | 39.18 | 5 | 05.7 | $235 |
| Chase Briscoe | $6,400 | 38.33 | 27 | 16.3 | $167 |
| Michael McDowell | $7,400 | 37.00 | 23 | 15.3 | $200 |
| Ryan Blaney | $9,100 | 36.98 | 9 | 08.5 | $246 |
| Alex Bowman | $8,900 | 34.95 | 12 | 10.7 | $255 |
| Kevin Harvick | $9,700 | 31.33 | 11 | 11.3 | $310 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,100 | 30.83 | 13 | 12.3 | $263 |
| Joey Logano | $9,500 | 30.17 | 6 | 08.8 | $315 |
| Austin Cindric | $8,700 | 29.42 | 3 | 11.7 | $296 |
| Ryan Preece | $5,700 | 27.33 | 36 | 26.5 | $209 |
| Erik Jones | $7,500 | 27.17 | 29 | 22.7 | $276 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $8,500 | 26.40 | 7 | 13.0 | $322 |
| Cole Custer | $7,800 | 26.33 | 14 | 16.2 | $296 |
| Ryan Newman | $6,700 | 25.83 | 34 | 25.7 | $259 |
| Aric Almirola | $7,600 | 25.50 | 26 | 22.2 | $298 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $7,900 | 23.83 | 22 | 20.5 | $331 |
| Ross Chastain | $6,000 | 22.50 | 20 | 20.3 | $267 |
| Tyler Reddick | $7,200 | 19.73 | 1 | 14.7 | $365 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,500 | 18.50 | 33 | 28.5 | $297 |
| Daniel Suarez | $6,600 | 15.00 | 15 | 21.7 | $440 |
| Kyle Tilley | $4,900 | 13.83 | 39 | 33.5 | $354 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $6,200 | 12.83 | 21 | 25.0 | $483 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $5,100 | 12.33 | 37 | 33.2 | $414 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,000 | 11.33 | 16 | 23.0 | $618 |
| Justin Haley | $5,400 | 11.17 | 30 | 30.7 | $484 |
| James Davison | $5,000 | 09.33 | 32 | 32.3 | $536 |
| Quin Houff | $4,500 | 09.33 | 40 | 36.5 | $482 |
| Garrett Smithley | $4,700 | 08.17 | 38 | 36.2 | $576 |
| Cody Ware | $4,800 | 07.83 | 35 | 34.7 | $613 |
| Bubba Wallace | $5,800 | 06.33 | 18 | 26.5 | $916 |
| Corey Lajoie | $5,200 | 05.67 | 25 | 31.0 | $918 |
| Josh Bilicki | $4,600 | 01.33 | 31 | 36.2 | $3,450 |
