Busch Clash DraftKings Projections, Picks, & Strategy Breakdown

We have a 35-lap shootout on tap for Tuesday night at the Daytona Road Course as the 2021 NASCAR season (and Daytona Speedweeks) gets underway. This race has no bearing on the actual season itself–it’s an exhibition race–but it’ll be nice to finally see some cars back on track, plus this will give us a nice preview into who will be fast in the second race of the season, since we’ll be right back here at the road course.

For similar tracks, we got the Charlotte ROVAL, which is the only other road course/oval mix that the Cup Series has ran on. You can also throw in Sonoma and Watkins Glen, but we didn’t run there last year, so you have to go back to 2019. If you didn’t read my Fantasy/Betting Preview for this race, I’d recommend doing so by clicking here.

Also Check Out My Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order For This Race (click here)

Ryan Blaney is on the pole for Tuesday night’s race at the Daytona Road Course and you can see the full starting lineup by clicking here. Now let’s gooo!!!!

Road Course Speed Report

Road courses haven’t been plentiful on the Cup Series schedule in prior years, so we’re really dealing with some limited data for this race. Looking at the past two full seasons, there are only five road course races that we can analyze: one race here at the Daytona Road Course in 2020, two races at the Charlotte ROVAL (2019 and 2020), and then a race at Sonoma and a race at Watkins Glen, both held in 2019.

Here are the top 5 drivers in terms of Driver Rating over those five road course races:

1. Chase Elliott (129.76 average driver rating)
2. Martin Truex, Jr. (121.60 average driver rating)
3. William Byron (99.48 average driver rating)
4. Kevin Harvick (96.98 average driver rating)
5. Denny Hamlin (94.94 average driver rating)

The number of laps led over that same time span are, as expected, the exact same order:

1. Chase Elliott (179 laps led)
2. Martin Truex, Jr. (71 laps led)
3. William Byron (71 laps led)
4. Kevin Harvick (34 laps led)
5. Denny Hamlin (20 laps led)

And when it comes to fastest laps, the gap between the top cars and the rest of the field widens even more:

1. Chase Elliott (99 fastest laps)
2. Martin Truex, Jr. (70 fastest laps)
3. William Byron (31 fastest laps)
4. Ryan Blaney (28 fastest laps)
5. Kyle Busch (19 fastest laps)

And of course, the ever valuable Green Flag Speed. Below you will find the top 5 drivers in term of average rank in green flag speed over the last five road course races.

1. Martin Truex, Jr. (3.0 average rank)
2. Chase Elliott (4.6 average rank)
3. Cole Custer (6.5 average rank) **only two races**
4. Kevin Harvick (8.2 average rank)
5. William Byron (9.0 average rank)

If you’d like to see the Loop Data & Green Flag Speed reports for the recent road course races, just click the links below alongside the corresponding race you want to see:

DraftKings Strategy for the Busch Clash

GPP / Tournament Picks

Chase Elliott ($10,500) – The safest pick on this slate is Chase Elliott, but with how the random qualifying draw turned out (with drivers like Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex, Jr. all starting near the back) I think Chase could end up being lower owned than he should be. The #9 Chevrolet will roll off from 7th on Tuesday night, which means he has place differential upside in addition to dominator potential. As I wrote in my Preview article this week, nobody is really even close to Chase right now on this track type. He’s beyond good. He’s dominant. He’s better at these tracks than Jimmie Johnson was during his prime at Martinsville. If Chase Elliott isn’t in victory lane here on Tuesday night in the Busch Clash, it’ll likely be due to a mechanical issue or strategy gone wrong.

Chase Elliott will have to start from the rear tonight.

It obviously lowers his dominator potential a little bit but other than that not much changes. He'll be fine.#FantasyNASCAR #NASCAR #DFS #DraftKings #FanDuel

— Fantasy Racing Online (@FanRacingOnline) February 9, 2021

Denny Hamlin ($9,600) – With how the DraftKings driver pricing ended up this week, Denny Hamlin is smack dab between the two best road course racers (Elliott and Truex) and two great place differential options (Harvick and Kyle Busch). Hamlin is also the highest-starting among these five, pulling the 3rd starting spot in the random qualifying draw on Monday night. All of these variables point to a lower-owned Denny Hamlin slate, which means there’s a lot of upside in being overweight on him in tournaments/GPPs. Denny finished 2nd here at the Daytona Road Course last season and has three top 5s in his last four road course starts. He’s probably going to need to get up there and lead in order for this gamble to pay off, which is going to be tough since Blaney is on the pole and Elliott will make his way through the field quickly, but I’m all on board for being overweight on Hamlin–and if you know me, you know how surprising that is.

Cole Custer ($5,800) – I’m intrigued by Cole Custer on Tuesday night. There’s no doubt that he has the equipment to run well in this race, but how will he do starting 8th in a field filled with the top drivers in the series? There’s no doubt that this pick is extremely risky, but you’re going to need to take a risk to differentiate your lineup from everyone else’s in GPPs. The reason I’m intrigued by Custer? He ranked 4th and 9th in Green Flag Speed in the two road course races last season, and ended up finishing 9th at the Charlotte ROVAL. I don’t think it’s wise to lean heavy on Custer Tuesday night but he makes a great tournament differentiator option, in my opinion.

Cash Core Drivers

Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,000) – Martin Truex, Jr., who pulled the 18th starting spot in the random qualifying draw (out of 21 drivers), which means he has major place differential upside. Right now, Chase Elliott and Martin Truex are in a league of their own on the road courses, and with this race on Tuesday night being so short, place differential and finishing position is going to be key. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if Truex is the highest-scoring driver on the slate–and by a good margin, too. When we raced here at the Daytona Road Course last season, the #19 Toyota had the best Green Flag Speed and ranked 4th in average running position.

Joey Logano ($8,100) – DraftKings went soft on the driver pricing for this slate and Joey Logano is definitely one of the mis-priced drivers in the field. He starts 10th on Tuesday night but has top 5 potential–at least according to my algorithm (click here to see the predicted finishing order). It’s pretty easy to overlook Logano’s seemingly average stats on road courses, but he does have three top 10s in the last five races on this track type, including a 2nd-place finish in the Charlotte ROVAL event last season. If they bring a car with similar speed for this race, Logano could be a true contender.

Kurt Busch ($7,400) – Honestly, don’t be afraid to make your cash lineup build similar to how you would a superspeedway race. Starting 15th through 18th, we have four very good road course racers: Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex, Jr. Stuffing those four drivers into one lineup still leaves you $14,500 in remaining salary for the last two spots. As far as Kurt goes, my algorithm (click here) has him projected to finish 8th, and he ranks 8th-best in driver rating over the last five road course races among the 21 drivers in this Busch Clash field.

Busch Clash at the Daytona Road Course DraftKings Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from six different ranking systems. Also factored in are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.