DraftKings Slate Breakdown for the Daytona Road Course

Chaos. Carnage. Survival.

Those are three words that typically describe a superspeedway race at Daytona or Talladega, but I think they will end up describing Sunday’s race at the road course of Daytona as well. And with those superspeedways, success in DraftKings often comes down to strategy and not necessarily the best drivers. There’s a very good chance that happens again this weekend.

Sunday’s Go Bowling 235 is an extremely short race–only 65 scheduled laps–which means place differential and finishing FPTS are a lot more important than nailing the dominator(s). Not to mention, don’t forget that caution laps do not trigger fastest laps. Looking back at last year’s Charlotte Roval race, there were 75 green flag laps out of the total 109 (or 68.8%) and in the 2018 race there is was 87 out of a total 109 (or 79.8%). If this weekend’s race is green for 75% of the time we’re looking at 49 green flag laps, so 24.5 DraftKings FPTS for fastest laps.

You’re going to need the winner in your lineup on Sunday, there’s no doubt about that. But I think the rest of the lineup should be built with place differential in mind (or top 5 finish potential if they start too high to get a lot of place differential points). Just look at what we saw on Saturday in the Xfinity race: plenty of action, ending with just 25 cars on the lead lap and the pole sitter (Austin Cindric) in victory lane. And in case you were wondering what the top DraftKings lineup looked like for that race, it was:

• Austin Cindric / Started 1st / Finished 1st
• A.J. Allmendinger / Started 11th / Finished 4th
• Jeremy Clements / Started 18th / Finished 6th
• Myatt Snider / Started 27th / Finished 10th
• Bayley Currey / Started 34th / Finished 14th
• Kyle Weatherman / Started 26th / Finished 17th

The top lineup for the Truck race on Sunday afternoon looked like this (below). As you can see, both the Xfinity and Truck top lineups only had one driver starting in the top 10, and both had a worst finisher of 17th.

• Sheldon Creed / Started 14th / Finished 1st
• Brett Moffitt / Started 3rd / Finished 2nd
• Parker Kligerman / Started 16th / Finished 8th
• Scott Lagasse / Started 30th / Finished 9th
• Stewart Friesen / Started 22nd / Finished 10th
• Spencer Boyd / Started 24th / Finished 17th

It took the Xfinity drivers about 30 laps to get a full handle on this race track, and even then we saw guys constantly just screw up corners, or even spin out while leading and slightly getting off track like Noah Gragson, or Gregson, if you’re Rick Allen. Anyway, there’s footage below, and that’s why I mentioned survival in the beginning of this article. If a driver makes a mistake on Sunday, he needs to make it early so he can recover, and hope the damage isn’t too bad.

Driver-by-Driver Breakdown for the Go Bowling 235 at the Daytona Road Course

1. Kevin Harvick ($9,600) – 45.4 projected FPTS
   – Kevin Harvick is a contender to win on Sunday, and at just $9,600 he makes an interesting option. I think it’s super risky to take the pole sitter here but if you think Harvick will win, it’ll be worth it. Over the last six road course races, Harvick has the 3rd-best average running position (7.9) and at the Charlotte Roval he ranks 1st in category with an average of 6.4. He has the 2nd-best average finish (6.2) over the last two years at road course tracks. A word of caution, though: I bet on Harvick to win this race, and that has been a major jinx for the last couple months or so.
2. Denny Hamlin ($9,400) – 37.6 projected FPTS
   – I think Denny Hamlin has top 5 potential but I don’t see him winning this race. For that reason, I’ll probably be going underweight on him since he starts 2nd. He finished 3rd at Watkins Glen last year as well as 5th at Sonoma.
3. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,100) – 51.7 projected FPTS
   – I wrote Martin Truex, Jr. up in my Projections article. Click here to read that.
4. Kyle Busch ($9,800) – 42.0 projected FPTS
   – There’s race winning potential here with Kyle Busch but I’ll still probably end up underweight here. I just don’t like the price point, and with Rowdy starting 4th, it’ll take a win for him to be in the optimal lineup. And with how his season is going, I wouldn’t be surprised if he ran into issues on Sunday, like he’s done in both Charlotte Roval races thus far. On a positive note, Kyle Busch has an average finish of 5.8 at Sonoma and Watkins Glen over the last four years.
5. Joey Logano ($9,200) – 26.8 projected FPTS
   – It’s been a while since Joey Logano has had a great road course race. He’s finished 23rd, 37th, and 24th the last three years at Watkins Glen and 23rd, 19th, and 12th the last three years at Sonoma. I’ll probably end up fully fading him in DraftKings this weekend.
6. Aric Almirola ($7,900) – 31.8 projected FPTS
   – A decent GPP option here. Almirola has finished between 8th and 14th in four of the last six road course races, and right now he’s running better than he ever has in his career. The 6th-place starting spot is really risky but the $7,900 price tag makes it a little more tolerable.
7. Chase Elliott ($10,300) – 52.5 projected FPTS
   – I wrote Chase Elliott up in my Projections article. Click here to read that.
8. Kurt Busch ($8,400) – 36.0 projected FPTS
   – Kurt Busch can be counted on for a top 10 finish on Sunday. He’s going to need to be better than that to be in the optimal lineup, though. Busch finished 5th, 6th, and 9th in the three road course races in 2018, but was 20th, 13th, and 10th in the three last year. Kurt will likely be the lowest owned in this price range so I like being overweight on him but nothing excessive.
9. Matt DiBenedetto ($7,800) – 30.2 projected FPTS
   – I wrote Matt DiBenedetto up in my Projections article. Click here to read that.
10. Kaz Grala ($6,000) – 05.7 projected FPTS
    – Kaz is replacing Austin Dillon on Sunday and will be scored from 10th but have to start from the rear. So we have a guy making his first ever Cup start on a track where no Cup driver has ever raced before. Sounds like a disaster. I’d give Grala a shot if DraftKings priced him super cheap but at $6,000 I see no reason to put him in any lineups. For his road course history in Xfinity, you can click here to read that.
11. Jimmie Johnson ($8,100) – 34.7 projected FPTS
    – I really like this little cluster of drivers starting 11th through 13th. They’re all good GPP plays. Looking at Johnson, he just needs to finish. He has the 4th-best average running position at the Charlotte Roval (9.4) and when you include the four races at Sonoma and Watkins Glen, he goes back just one position to 5th-best with an average of 11.9.
12. Clint Bowyer ($8,800) – 41.2 projected FPTS
    – In my Slingshot article this week (click here), I explained why I like Clint Bowyer in that fantasy game. The same thinking applies. in DraftKings. Bowyer’s average finish on road courses over the last two years is 8.7 and he’s swept the top 5 at the Charlotte Roval.
13. William Byron ($8,600) – 32.5 projected FPTS
    – I wrote William Byron up in my Projections article. Click here to read that.
14. Ryan Newman ($6,300) – 17.5 projected FPTS
    – He’s a Single Entry or tournament play but I’ll personally be staying away from Newman this week. He’s just not running well this season. He has an average finish of 18.2 on road courses over the last ten events with two top 10s at Sonoma, though, so there’s a little optimism there.
15. Christopher Bell ($7,200) – 27.5 projected FPTS
    – A GPP target for sure. Bell won the Xfinity race at Road America last year and also finished 2nd at Watkins Glen and Mid-Ohio. His ownership should be pretty low this week, so a good option for Single Entry contests as well if you want to pivot off of Gaughan or McDowell.
16. Matt Kenseth ($6,700) – 16.5 projected FPTS
    – Matt Kenseth isn’t great at road courses. He has just one top 10 finish in 18 career starts at Sonoma, and while he does have eight top 10s at Watkins Glen in 19 starts, he has just two top 5s. One interesting thing to consider is how strong this #42 Chevrolet was in the Charlotte Roval race last year, though… His price is low enough to take a shot in Single Entry contests and GPPs.
17. Brad Keselowski ($10,600) – 45.2 projected FPTS
    – If you’re looking at Watkins Glen as the most comparable track for this Sunday’s race at the Daytona Road Course, Keselowski is a great option, as he’s finished 2nd or 3rd there in four of his ten career starts. At Sonoma, the opposite is true: one top 5 in ten starts. Kez finished 5th at Charlotte Roval last year and has that potential this weekend. A cash lineup target for sure.
18. Tyler Reddick ($7,400) – 32.0 projected FPTS
    – Another pivot option off of Gaughan or McDowell. Reddick is definitely talented and offers a little more place differential room than Christopher Bell at only $200 more in salary. In the Xfinity Series last year he finished inside the top 5 in every single road course race.
19. Bubba Wallace ($6,100) – 10.8 projected FPTS
    – I see no upside here. Bubba hasn’t finished better than 25th on a road course in the Cup Series and he starts 19th. Of course, a top 15 would be a pretty good day out of a $6,100 driver, but I just don’t think it’s that likely.
20. Erik Jones ($9,000) – 37.0 projected FPTS
    – It probably won’t surprise you very much but I like being heavy on Erik Jones this weekend. He’s finished between 4th and 8th at Sonoma and Watkins Glen over the last two years, and has shown promise in the two Charlotte Roval races but had issues.
21. Chris Buescher ($6,600) – 27.5 projected FPTS
    – Honestly I think Buescher is a relatively safe option on Sunday and could end up being a sneaky play. Over the last six road course races, Buescher hasn’t finished worse than 20th and has an average result of 16th.
22. Ryan Preece ($5,100) – 15.5 projected FPTS
    – I love this salary for Ryan Preece, and with the possibility of major attrition on Sunday, I don’t hate being overweight on him. He started 14th and finished 21st at the Charlotte Roval last year, but was awful at Sonoma (29th) and Watkins Glen (36th). Preece does have two top 5s and three top 10s in five road course starts in the Xfinity Series. This guy could very well kill your lineup but it’s hard not to gamble on a $5,100 driver that could luck his way into a teens finish. Preece’s average Green Flag Speed ranking this year is 22.6, for what it’s worth.
23. Ty Dillon ($5,800) – 17.0 projected FPTS
    – Ty has been getting progressively better at road courses as the years go by. He wound up 15th at the Charlotte Roval last year, and could sneak in a finish similar to that on Sunday as well. If you don’t feel great about rolling the dice with Preece, Ty Dillon is another cheap option in this price range.
24. Ryan Blaney ($11,000) – 59.3 projected FPTS
    – Definitely a cash lineup option this week, but in GPPs I think it’s going to take a top 3-5 finish for that $11,000 to be worth it. Blaney won the first race at the Charlotte Roval (with a little luck) and has finished 8th or better in four of the last six road course races overall so he’s definitely capable. Of course, my contrarian brain loves being underweight here in GPPs.
25. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,500) – 23.7 projected FPTS
    – Ricky Wreckhouse could easily be one of the drivers that just f’n sends it on lap one and wrecks half the field, but if he can keep his #47 Chevrolet in one piece I think he has definite potential in DraftKings. He’s finished between 15th and 18th in four of the last six road course races and is priced well here at $6,500.
26. Cole Custer ($7,600) – 30.5 projected FPTS
    – This seems like a great pivot off of Brendan Gaughan to me. In the Xfinity Series, Custer has finishes of 12th, 6th, and 7th at Watkins Glen, finishes of 35th, 7th, and 8th at Mid-Ohio, and finishes of 7th and 8th at the Charlotte Roval. At Elkhart Lake, Cole finished 8th, 4th, anbd 10th in the lower series.
27. Alex Bowman ($8,200) – 49.0 projected FPTS
    – I wrote Alex Bowman up in my Projections article. Click here to read that.
28. John Hunter Nemechek ($6,400) – 22.8 projected FPTS
    – There’s always upside with John Hunter Nemechek, especially when he starts 28th. This will be his first Cup Series start on a road course but he finished 12th at Watkins Glen in the Xfinity Series last year and 7th at the Charlotte Roval. A finish around 20th wouldn’t surprise me out of John Hunter on Sunday.
29. Corey LaJoie ($5,900) – 14.5 projected FPTS
    – I’m expecting LaJoie to garner a decent amount of ownership on Sunday just because of his price point and he’s really the only guy you have a little bit of confidence in under $6,000… but I’m just not seeing major upside here. Yes, LaJoie is running better this year thanks to the alliance with Stewart-Haas but he’s still a mid-20s car most weeks. Now on road courses, Corey has a best finish of 27th at the Charlotte Roval, a best finish of 32nd at Sonoma, and a best finish of 33rd at Watkins Glen. He has no road course starts in the Xfinity Series. I think it’s worth going underweight here.
30. Michael McDowell ($7,000) – 34.3 projected FPTS
    – I wrote Michael McDowell up in my Projections article. Click here to read that.
31. Daniel Suarez ($6,900) – 24.8 projected FPTS
    – I really like Michael McDowell this week but Daniel Suarez is a viable pivot (or someone to pair with if you’d like). This #96 team is running better since we’ve crossed the halfway point of the season, and Suarez isn’t a bad road course racer; over the last six races on this track type he has an average running position of 15.5, which is 13th-best in the series. Obviously those races were in much better equipment but weird races like this can be an equalizer for smaller teams. Suarez is a safe cash option too since he starts so far back.
32. JJ Yeley ($5,600) – 14.5 projected FPTS
    – Without major carnage, it’s hard to imagine these cars from 32nd through 38th cracking the top 30. Even with a lot of wrecks, they’ll be at the back of the pack. I’d use sparingly and limit exposure to about 10% of total lineups with these guys.
33. Brennan Poole ($5,500) – 12.2 projected FPTS
    – See note under JJ Yeley.
34. Stanton Barrett ($5,400) – 11.0 projected FPTS
    – See note under JJ Yeley.
35. Quin Houff ($4,600) – 13.0 projected FPTS
    – See note under JJ Yeley.
36. Garrett Smithley ($4,700) – 13.8 projected FPTS
    – See note under JJ Yeley.
37. Timmy Hill ($4,900) – 12.5 projected FPTS
    – See note under JJ Yeley.
38. James Davison ($5,200) – 17.5 projected FPTS
    – See note under JJ Yeley.
39. Brendan Gaughan ($7,500) – 22.3 projected FPTS
    – Definitely a solid cash option, and deserves exposure in GPPs, too. I just don’t like the price point. Gaughan is running for Beard Motorsports, and they just had a car delivered to them from Richard Childress Racing specifically for this race. As far as Cup starts on road courses, Gaughan started 33rd and finished 26th at Sonoma in 2004, and started 30th and finished 34th at Watkins Glen in 2004. So nothing recent. In the Xfinity Series, Gaughan ran 17th in the 2018 Charlotte Roval race and has finished between 7th and 12th in his last four starts at Mid-Ohio (2015-2018). At Watkins Glen, he’s finished top 10 in his last three starts in the Xfinity Series (2015-2017).