Kentucky DraftKings NASCAR DFS Projections, Plays, & Strategy Tactics

We’re at Kentucky Speedway this weekend for all three series, and the Cup boys will race for 267 laps on Sunday for the Quaker State 400. Kentucky is a “cookie cutter” 1.5-mile track that was recently repaved before the 2016 season. The one good thing about these cookie cutters is that we have a lot of data to look at since we race on these so often. Well… it could be a good thing. It also opens the door for over-analyzing. Anyway, we have a bunch of data to discuss, so let’s get to it. Kyle Busch and Joey Logano pulled front row starting spots this week and you can click here to see the starting lineup for Sunday’s race at Kentucky.

Don’t miss my driver-by-driver DraftKings breakdown for this race! Click here to see it.

Speed Report in 2020 After Indianapolis

There’s not much good in looking back at Indianapolis and Pocono in terms of Green Flag Speed, but since we always go over the full season rankings in that category, we’ll talk about them quickly. Christopher Bell got the “win” in Green Flag Speed at Indy with Hamlin, Harvick, Elliott, and Kenseth filling out the top 5. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bell had the best speed because of an extra stop or something, but I’m not sure.

Looking at the recent races (I’m going with the last six) here are the fastest drivers in terms of Green Flag Speed:

1. Kevin Harvick (4.8 average rank)
2. Denny Hamlin (7.2 average rank)
3. Kyle Busch (7.5 average rank)
4. Chase Elliott (7.8 average rank)
5. Ryan Blaney (9.0 average rank)

You can click here to check out the updated Cheat Sheet on Green Flag Speed and see how every driver ranks in that category plus more, not only for the last six races but for the whole season.

Now let’s look at 1.5-mile tracks specifically since we’re racing at Kentucky. This year, we’ve had a race at Las Vegas, two races at Charlotte, a race at Atlanta, and a race at Homestead. All of these are technically 1.5-mile tracks, but Las Vegas compares the most similarly. Homestead I wouldn’t compare because of it’s different, but we will include it, along with Atlanta even though both fo those are “high wear” tracks.

So here are the fastest drivers in terms of Green Flag Speed on the 1.5-mile tracks this season:

1. Chase Elliott (4.0 average rank)
2. Ryan Blaney (4.6 average rank)
3. Kevin Harvick (7.2 average rank)
4. Martin Truex, Jr. (8.2 average rank)
5. William Byron (9.0 average rank)

The Penske teammates of Brad Keselowski (10.0 average rank) and Joey Logano (10.8 average rank) are close behind, as well as Alex Bowman (11.0 average rank), Kurt Busch (11.4 average rank), and Jimmie Johnson (11.8 average rank). Surprisingly, Matt DiBenedetto is ranked 11th, with an average Green Flag Speed ranking of 12.0 on the 1.5-mile tracks this year.

Let’s also talk about fastest laps. Once again we’re just looking at this 1.5-mile tracks that we’ve raced on this year, and the drivers that have the most are:

1. Chase Elliott (30.6 fastest laps per race)
2. Martin Truex, Jr. (27.4 fastest laps per race)
3. Kevin Harvick (22.6 fastest laps per race)
4. Alex Bowman (21.0 fastest laps per race)
5. Ryan Blaney (18.0 fastest laps per race)
6. Denny Hamlin (15.0 fastest laps per race)
7. Brad Keselowski & Erik Jones (12.6 fastest laps per race)
8. ***tie for 7th***
9. Joey Logano (11.2 fastest laps per race)
10. Tyler Reddick (10.6 fastest laps per race)
11. William Byron (10.4 fastest laps per race)

Everyone else is averaging less than 10 fastest laps per race on this track type.

Looking at DraftKings dominator points per race (fastest laps plus laps led), here are the top drivers on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2020:

1. Kevin Harvick (26.6 dominator points per race)
2. Chase Elliott (24.8 dominator points per race)
3. Martin Truex, Jr. (21.4 dominator points per race)
4. Alex Bowman (21.3 dominator points per race)
5. Denny Hamlin (14.4 dominator points per race)
6. Ryan Blaney (13.7 dominator points per race)
7. Joey Logano (13.6 dominator points per race)

All other drivers are averaging less than 10 DraftKings dominator points per race on this track type.

DraftKings Strategy for Kentucky

NEWS: Martin Truex, Jr. and Matt Kenseth failed inspection. They will drop to the rear on the pace laps but still be scored from their original starting spots. Even with this, not much changes with them, although it limits Truex’s dominator potential a bit.

As mentioned before, Kentucky is a “cookie cutter” 1.5-mile track, which means we have a ton of data we can compare and analyze. Las Vegas would be my top pick this season, especially since Goodyear is bringing the same tire this weekend, and then the two Charlotte races are comparable as well. As far as how the races at the 1.5-mile tracks have played out this year, we have had 3 or more dominators each race. Here’s a look at those numbers:

• Las Vegas = Elliott with 41.5 total DraftKings dominator points, Harvick with 38.5, and Logano with 54 laps led and the win
• Charlotte-1 = Bowman with 67 DraftKings dominator points, Truex with 49.75, Elliott with 34.5
• Charlotte-2 = Harvick had 34.25 DraftKings dominator points, Bowman had 26.75, then Elliott got the win with 15.5 dominator points (remember this was a short race)
• Atlanta = Harvick had 57.25 DraftKings dominator points, Truex had 42.75, and Clint Bowyer had 29.5
• Homestead = Hamlin had 49.75 DraftKings dominator points, Blaney had 31, Reddick had 24.75, and Elliott had 20.75

Kentucky was repaved before the 2016 race, so the events here from 2011 to 2015 can be thrown out when you’re analyzing history. That leaves us four races to look at, so let’s take a look at how those played out:

• 2016 = 3 dominator race. Harvick and Keselowski dominated most (128 and 75 laps led, respectively), with Truex the third dominator. Five drivers had >10 fastest laps (Truex with 69, Harvick with 44, Kyle Busch with 25, Austin Dillon with 16, Keselowski with 14)
• 2017 = 2 dominator race. Truex led 152 laps, Kyle Busch led 112 laps. They led in fastest laps too (84 and 49, respectively).
• 2018 = 1 dominator race. Truex led 174, next highest was Kurt Busch with 45 and then Keselowski with 38. Fastest laps had Truex up top with 65, then Blaney with 23, Kyle Busch with 22, Harvick with 21, and then Keselowski and Kurt Busch with 13.
• 2019 = 4 dominator race. Kyle Busch led 72, Suarez led 52, Kurt Busch led 41, and Bowyer led 40. Four drivers also had 20+ fastest laps: Kyle Busch (40), Logano (37), Kurt Busch (36), and Erik Jones (21)

So what does this tell us?

This is likely going to be a 3 dominator race, especially with the random draw qualifying, and that’s how I’m going to build my lineups (or with two if I go with two high-priced guys). We could definitely see Kevin Harvick ($11,600) end up pulling a Truex from 2018 and just putting another whooping on the field, but his lack of being great here at Kentucky is concerning (just one top 5 finish in nine starts). The biggest question mark for me is Kyle Busch ($10,100), who starts on the pole and has been unbelievable at this track, with a 4.7 average finish, two wins, and seven top 5s in nine starts. We have seen the masses over-value track history this season, though, and Kyle Busch is averaging a measly 5.1 DraftKings dominator points on the 1.5-mile tracks this year. His decently low salary could over-inflate his ownership, so the contrarian in my likes being underweight on Rowdy.

Others with legitimate dominating potential on Sunday include: Chase Elliott ($10,500), Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,200), Joey Logano ($9,600), and Alex Bowman ($7,400). Those that have a chance but I don’t love their odds of doing so include: Ryan Blaney ($9,800), Brad Keselowski ($9,000), Kurt Busch ($7,600),and Denny Hamlin ($10,900).

Picks I Love for the Quaker State 400

Chase Elliott ($10,500) – Disclaimer: as I always say, I’m awful at predicting ownership percentage. But with Kevin Harvick priced up at $11,600 and Kyle Busch at $10,100, I could definitely see most DraftKings players opting for Ryan Blaney ($9,800) or Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,200) instead of Chase Elliott to save some cap. And don’t get me wrong, I love both of those plays, but you just can’t ignore the speed of the #9 Chevrolet. Additionally, looking at the races on 1.5-mile tracks, Chase put up 48 fastest laps at Las Vegas, 50 and 17 in the two Charlotte races, 10 at Atlanta (where he’s not great), and then 28 at Homestead. That’s called consistency. There’s a very good chance that Elliott ends up being one of the dominators on Sunday.

Erik Jones ($8,400) – This price range is where things get fun this weekend. You have Jones stuck in the middle between William Byron ($8,600) and Tyler Reddick ($8,200). Byron has had one of the fastest cars on 1.5-mile tracks this season, but just one top 10 finish (9th at Homestead). Reddick is always a threat to surprise on race day, and he’s the safest option of the three, with two top 10 finishes and no result worse than 18th on this track type in 2020. He also starts the furthest back of these three, and he’s the cheapest, so a good option for a cash lineup. But Erik Jones is my boy and even though he’s killed me a lot this year, the bad luck is going to stop. He has a fast car, and he’s awesome here at Kentucky, with finishes of 3rd, 7th, and 6th in his three Cup starts. Yes, I mentioned earlier how people over-value track history with no practice, but people are also hesitant to pick Erik Jones right now, especially if they can go with someone like Byron or Reddick and have more place differential potential. Strategy-wise, I like being heavier on Jones, who starts 16th and can still move up a good ways.

Austin Dillon ($6,500) – DraftKings priced the drivers very well this weekend, and because of that, the sub-$7,000 range is pretty slim pickings. Cole Custer ($6,900) is running better right now and starts 29th, so I feel like he’s too chalky to be heavy on in GPPs, so Austin Dillon would be a guy you could combine with McDowell or Nemechek (more on those below) to fill out your lineup. His record here at Kentucky isn’t great, but Austin has been awesome on the 1.5-mile tracks recently, with a 5th at Homestead, an 11th at Atlanta, 8th- and 14th-place finishes at Charlotte, and a 4th-place result at Las Vegas this season. Even going back to last year, Austin finished 8th at Homestead to end the year and ended up 14th or better in four of the last six 1.5-mile races in 2019.

My Low-Dollar Lock is, as it has been most weeks, Michael McDowell ($5,700), and I don’t hate his teammate, John Hunter Nemechek ($5,300). McDowell starts back in 30th so that’s a no-brainer, but Nemecehk starts up in 22nd, which should keeps his ownership relatively low. Remember, John Hunter finished 17th and 13th in the Charlotte races and also came home 19th at Homestead.

Kentucky DraftKings Projections

The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems. Also included are projected laps led and fastest laps for each driver. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.