DraftKings Dover NASCAR Projections, Plays, and Strategy Tactics

Dover International Speedway is the site of this weekend’s Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race, and we’re set to run 400 laps for the Gander RV 400 on Sunday (hopefully). Right now, it looks like there’s going to be plenty of rain to go around on race day, so we may be looking at a Monday race. Either way, the rain is going to wash all of the rubber off the track, so teams will be going into the race with a completely different track surface than they practiced on on Saturday.

Here are some helpful links to the qualifying results and practice speeds from this weekend:

• Starting Lineup
• Practice #1 Speeds and Averages
• Practice #2 (Happy Hour )Speeds and Averages

DraftKings Strategy Tactics for Dover

We have 400 laps to run around this concrete oval, and the one question everyone is trying to figure out is this: who is going to be the main dominator? Chase Elliott ($9,800) is on the pole and won this race in the fall, but Kyle Larson ($8,000) is starting 3rd and looking absolutely blazing fast in practice on Saturday. Still, we’ve seen time and time again this season that it’s incredibly difficult to pass the leader, and a few drivers mentioned that that will be the case here at Dover as well. Of course, there’s always the possibility that both Elliott and Larson dominate this weekend, and with their prices, it’s very easy to fit them both into the same lineup.

But let’s take a look at recent pole winners at Dover for a minute. I went through this a bit on Twitter on Saturday, but it’s something that deserves to be mentioned again.

Plain and simple: pole winners haven’t faired well at Dover lately. Looking at the chart below, you can see that, on average, the pole sitter only leads 58.3 laps per race (out of a scheduled 400 at Dover) and has an average finish of 10th. Further, we haven’t had a pole winner lead over 51 laps since Kevin Harvick did it back in 2016–six Dover races ago.

Speed-wise, Chase Elliott is a top 10 car on Sunday. The unknown is just how important track position is going to be. If it’s going to be difficult to pass the leader–which is expected–he’s probably going to put up plenty of laps led. But as far as fastest laps? It’s hard to see the #9 Chevrolet capturing many of those. Pole sitter history isn’t on Chase’s side this weekend, so strategy wise I don’t mind being underweight on the guy starting 1st on Sunday.

Race	Driver	Laps Led	Finish
2018-2	Kyle Busch	21	8
2018-1	Kyle Larson	0	10
2017-2	Martin Truex, Jr.	51	4
2017-1	Kyle Busch	19	16
2016-2	Brad Keselowski	7	4
2016-1	Kevin Harvick	117	15
2015-2	Matt Kenseth	26	7
2015-1	Denny Hamlin	118	21
2014-2	Kevin Harvick	223	13
2014-1	Brad Keselowski	1	2
AVERAGES	—	58.3	10.0

GPP Drivers I Love for the Gander RV 400

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,500) – This price range is interesting, because sitting just above Stenhouse is Daniel Suarez ($7,700) this weekend, and I really like the #41 Ford as a solid top 10 finisher. However, I like Stenhouse as a more off-sequence play, just because Suarez’s track history has been so heavily promoted this week. When the practice telecast mentions that he’s never finished worse than 10th at Dover, that’s naturally going to shift his ownership percentage up a notch. Looking at Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.’s history here at Dover, it’s actually pretty impressive–at least by Stenhouse’s standards. He finished 9th in the fall race here last season and has just one result worse than 19th in the last seven races at “The Monster Mile.” Additionally, Ricky has two top 10s and five top 15s over that seven-race span, and he starts back in 20th this weekend. My only concern is that neither Roush-Fenway car made a long run during practice on Saturday, but that should allow Stenhouse to fly even more under the radar in DraftKings. Hopefully the #17 team can find their usual Dover speed when the Gander RV 400 goes green.

William Byron ($6,700) – Typically a driver starting up front with a low chance of dominating is an automatic fade in DraftKings, but I actually don’t mind being overweight on William Byron this weekend. In fact, I like him as an alternate dominator and pivot off of pole sitter Chase Elliott. Speed-wise, I think the #9 and #24 Chevrolets are similar, and as mentioned before, track position is probably going to be king here on Sunday. Byron had respectable runs of 14th and 19th in the two Dover races last season, and he’s finished 16th or better in four of the last six Cup races overall. I’m not saying go super heavy on Byron this weekend, but I definitely don’t mind being in the 10-15% range with him. As far as teammate Alex Bowman ($7,100), I like sprinkling him into lineups as well. He starts 5th and has an awful track history here at Dover, but Bowman put up a combined 36 fastest laps in the two races here last season, and, again, track position. Both Byron and Bowman are cheap enough options that it’s not a bad idea to take a risk there.

Dover Gander RV 400 DraftKings Projections

You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.