Dover International Speedway is the site of this weekend’s Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series race, and we’re set to run 400 laps for the Gander RV 400 on Sunday (hopefully). Right now, it looks like there’s going to be plenty of rain to go around on race day, so we may be looking at a Monday race. Either way, the rain is going to wash all of the rubber off the track, so teams will be going into the race with a completely different track surface than they practiced on on Saturday.

Here are some helpful links to the qualifying results and practice speeds from this weekend:

DraftKings Strategy Tactics for Dover

Chase Elliott Jimmie Johnson Fantasy NASCAR 2018
Photo Credit: Robert Laberge/Getty Images

We have 400 laps to run around this concrete oval, and the one question everyone is trying to figure out is this: who is going to be the main dominator? Chase Elliott ($9,800) is on the pole and won this race in the fall, but Kyle Larson ($8,000) is starting 3rd and looking absolutely blazing fast in practice on Saturday. Still, we’ve seen time and time again this season that it’s incredibly difficult to pass the leader, and a few drivers mentioned that that will be the case here at Dover as well. Of course, there’s always the possibility that both Elliott and Larson dominate this weekend, and with their prices, it’s very easy to fit them both into the same lineup.

But let’s take a look at recent pole winners at Dover for a minute. I went through this a bit on Twitter on Saturday, but it’s something that deserves to be mentioned again.

Plain and simple: pole winners haven’t faired well at Dover lately. Looking at the chart below, you can see that, on average, the pole sitter only leads 58.3 laps per race (out of a scheduled 400 at Dover) and has an average finish of 10th. Further, we haven’t had a pole winner lead over 51 laps since Kevin Harvick did it back in 2016–six Dover races ago.

Speed-wise, Chase Elliott is a top 10 car on Sunday. The unknown is just how important track position is going to be. If it’s going to be difficult to pass the leader–which is expected–he’s probably going to put up plenty of laps led. But as far as fastest laps? It’s hard to see the #9 Chevrolet capturing many of those. Pole sitter history isn’t on Chase’s side this weekend, so strategy wise I don’t mind being underweight on the guy starting 1st on Sunday.

RaceDriverLaps
Led
Finish
2018-2Kyle Busch218
2018-1Kyle Larson010
2017-2Martin Truex, Jr.514
2017-1Kyle Busch1916
2016-2Brad Keselowski74
2016-1Kevin Harvick11715
2015-2Matt Kenseth267
2015-1Denny Hamlin11821
2014-2Kevin Harvick22313
2014-1Brad Keselowski12
AVERAGES58.310.0

GPP Drivers I Love for the Gander RV 400

William Byron 24 Car 2018 Fantasy NASCAR
Photo Credit: Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,500) – This price range is interesting, because sitting just above Stenhouse is Daniel Suarez ($7,700) this weekend, and I really like the #41 Ford as a solid top 10 finisher. However, I like Stenhouse as a more off-sequence play, just because Suarez’s track history has been so heavily promoted this week. When the practice telecast mentions that he’s never finished worse than 10th at Dover, that’s naturally going to shift his ownership percentage up a notch. Looking at Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.’s history here at Dover, it’s actually pretty impressive–at least by Stenhouse’s standards. He finished 9th in the fall race here last season and has just one result worse than 19th in the last seven races at “The Monster Mile.” Additionally, Ricky has two top 10s and five top 15s over that seven-race span, and he starts back in 20th this weekend. My only concern is that neither Roush-Fenway car made a long run during practice on Saturday, but that should allow Stenhouse to fly even more under the radar in DraftKings. Hopefully the #17 team can find their usual Dover speed when the Gander RV 400 goes green.

William Byron ($6,700) – Typically a driver starting up front with a low chance of dominating is an automatic fade in DraftKings, but I actually don’t mind being overweight on William Byron this weekend. In fact, I like him as an alternate dominator and pivot off of pole sitter Chase Elliott. Speed-wise, I think the #9 and #24 Chevrolets are similar, and as mentioned before, track position is probably going to be king here on Sunday. Byron had respectable runs of 14th and 19th in the two Dover races last season, and he’s finished 16th or better in four of the last six Cup races overall. I’m not saying go super heavy on Byron this weekend, but I definitely don’t mind being in the 10-15% range with him. As far as teammate Alex Bowman ($7,100), I like sprinkling him into lineups as well. He starts 5th and has an awful track history here at Dover, but Bowman put up a combined 36 fastest laps in the two races here last season, and, again, track position. Both Byron and Bowman are cheap enough options that it’s not a bad idea to take a risk there.

Dover Gander RV 400 DraftKings Projections

You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by average projected FPTS.

DriverStarting PositionDraftKings SalaryAvg Proj FPTSAvg. Projected FinishProj Laps LedDollar Per FPT
Kyle Busch22$12,400 64.904.025$191
Chase Elliott1$9,800 61.804.299$159
Martin Truex Jr13$10,200 60.402.636$169
Kyle Larson3$8,000 57.405.476$139
Kevin Harvick6$11,300 49.805.044$227
Kurt Busch19$8,900 44.509.62$200
Erik Jones15$8,700 43.209.64$201
Joey Logano4$11,800 42.105.222$280
Jimmie Johnson12$8,200 40.909.05$201
Aric Almirola7$8,300 38.308.29$217
Brad Keselowski9$10,700 35.609.212$301
Ricky Stenhouse Jr20$7,500 35.615.20$211
Daniel Suarez14$7,700 34.810.80$221
Denny Hamlin8$9,500 33.010.215$288
Ryan Blaney11$9,200 32.412.211$284
Austin Dillon16$7,400 32.014.00$231
Ryan Newman21$7,900 31.216.60$253
Clint Bowyer10$8,500 29.911.86$284
Chris Buescher30$7,300 29.422.20$248
William Byron2$6,700 28.912.422$232
Paul Menard18$6,900 27.418.00$252
Ty Dillon25$6,400 27.221.00$235
Ryan Preece29$6,500 22.624.80$288
Bubba Wallace27$5,900 22.424.20$263
Alex Bowman5$7,100 20.616.612$345
Ross Chastain36$6,000 18.830.60$319
Michael McDowell26$5,300 18.426.20$288
Daniel Hemric23$6,200 17.424.80$356
Matt Tifft32$5,600 15.429.80$364
Corey Lajoie28$5,400 14.429.20$375
Landon Cassill31$5,000 14.030.60$357
Matt DiBenedetto17$7,200 13.824.20$522
BJ McLeod34$4,900 13.632.40$360
David Ragan24$5,700 12.427.60$460
Cody Ware33$5,100 11.232.80$455
Reed Sorenson37$5,200 08.036.40$650
Quin Houff35$4,800 07.835.60$615
As someone who has always been obsessed with numbers, Fantasy NASCAR has been the perfect fit with me. I pride myself on the quality of my analysis for each race, and am glad that I have been able to help others along the way. I've been a serious Fantasy NASCAR player for over 10 years now, and I'm just getting started.