With Joey Logano bumping his way into the Championship Race at Homestead, we shift our focus to Texas Motor Speedway where Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 will occur. This is the 10th race of the season on a 1.5-mile track, and “The Big Three” of Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex, Jr. have pretty much dominated them. The most recent two, though, we’ve had some surprises: Chase Elliott in victory lane at Kansas 2, and Brad Keselowski in victory lane at Las Vegas 2.
As far as DraftKings goes this week, we have another large GPP that has $20,000 going to first, with the entry fee for the Piston contest remaining at $10. Pricing-wise, DraftKings is pretty spot on when it comes to the drivers this week, at least when it comes to how they have scored on this track type thus far in 2018. Most of the mis-pricing is down in the sub-$6,000 range this weekend, and I touch on those a little further down in the article. First you will find the average DraftKings points scored at Texas over the last two and a half years.
As always, be sure to check out the 1.5-mile Fantasy NASCAR Cheat Sheet, found by clicking here.
Average DraftKings Points Scored at Texas Over Last 5 Races
| Driver | DK Salary | # of Races | Avg DK Pts Per Race | Avg Finish | Avg Fastest Laps Per Race | Avg Laps Led Per Race | Avg Start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | $11,700 | 5 | 69.35 | 04.60 | 35.20 | 40.60 | 06.20 |
| Kyle Busch | $12,200 | 5 | 68.55 | 08.20 | 29.20 | 31.80 | 17.20 |
| Joey Logano | $10,500 | 5 | 63.75 | 04.20 | 14.20 | 43.40 | 10.20 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $11,100 | 5 | 62.95 | 11.20 | 32.40 | 72.60 | 07.00 |
| William Byron | $5,800 | 1 | 57.75 | 10.00 | 01.00 | 01.00 | 33.00 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,700 | 5 | 55.15 | 07.40 | 10.20 | 01.80 | 20.40 |
| Erik Jones | $8,300 | 3 | 48.50 | 12.00 | 05.67 | 21.33 | 20.33 |
| Bubba Wallace | $6,000 | 1 | 43.00 | 08.00 | 00.00 | 00.00 | 15.00 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,700 | 5 | 40.80 | 12.80 | 18.40 | 29.60 | 05.80 |
| Ross Chastain | $4,800 | 1 | 39.00 | 18.00 | 00.00 | 00.00 | 31.00 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,900 | 5 | 37.00 | 11.00 | 08.80 | 08.00 | 08.60 |
| Jamie McMurray | $7,100 | 5 | 36.30 | 12.00 | 02.20 | 00.00 | 15.20 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $8,500 | 5 | 35.30 | 15.60 | 13.20 | 03.60 | 14.40 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,200 | 5 | 31.60 | 21.40 | 02.40 | 00.00 | 29.20 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,000 | 5 | 31.20 | 20.80 | 19.00 | 14.80 | 15.60 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,600 | 4 | 30.88 | 18.50 | 00.75 | 00.00 | 23.50 |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,100 | 5 | 28.20 | 16.60 | 08.20 | 15.60 | 09.40 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,000 | 5 | 27.10 | 16.60 | 02.00 | 02.00 | 14.80 |
| Trevor Bayne | $6,600 | 5 | 27.10 | 19.60 | 03.40 | 02.40 | 20.00 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,500 | 4 | 26.50 | 20.25 | 00.00 | 01.00 | 22.75 |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,500 | 5 | 24.30 | 15.20 | 05.80 | 00.80 | 07.60 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,500 | 5 | 23.55 | 20.00 | 00.60 | 00.20 | 19.20 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,900 | 5 | 22.80 | 19.80 | 00.40 | 00.00 | 18.20 |
| Alex Bowman | $7,600 | 2 | 22.75 | 20.50 | 07.50 | 00.00 | 16.00 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,100 | 5 | 20.80 | 26.00 | 02.00 | 00.00 | 27.80 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,300 | 4 | 19.63 | 26.50 | 00.75 | 00.00 | 28.25 |
| Aric Almirola | $8,100 | 5 | 18.60 | 22.20 | 00.80 | 00.00 | 18.60 |
| Regan Smith | $6,800 | 2 | 17.00 | 28.50 | 00.00 | 00.00 | 30.00 |
| JJ Yeley | $5,200 | 1 | 17.00 | 27.00 | 00.00 | 00.00 | 27.00 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,300 | 3 | 16.50 | 20.67 | 01.00 | 00.00 | 13.33 |
| Clint Bowyer | $9,300 | 5 | 15.60 | 23.80 | 02.80 | 00.00 | 17.80 |
| David Ragan | $6,400 | 5 | 14.50 | 29.40 | 02.00 | 00.40 | 28.20 |
| Reed Sorenson | $5,000 | 5 | 14.40 | 33.60 | 02.00 | 00.00 | 36.60 |
| Joey Gase | $4,600 | 2 | 10.50 | 34.00 | 00.00 | 00.00 | 34.50 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,700 | 5 | 09.45 | 25.60 | 05.40 | 01.40 | 13.60 |
| Paul Menard | $7,900 | 5 | 07.20 | 28.60 | 03.60 | 00.00 | 18.60 |
| Timmy Hill | $4,500 | 1 | 05.00 | 39.00 | 00.00 | 00.00 | 39.00 |
| Corey Lajoie | $4,700 | 2 | 04.00 | 35.50 | 00.00 | 00.00 | 31.00 |
Potential DraftKings Bargains for Texas 2
Brad Keselowski ($9,500) – I love this pricing of Brad Keselowski this weekend, simply because if he’s not a clear dominating or place differential stud, he’s bound to be overlooked and go under-owned. Statistically, the price is pretty reasonable–Kez is 5th-best in DraftKings points per race on 1.5-mile tracks this year and 7th-highest in price this week–but $9,500 could actually end up being a bargain, especially when you consider that Brad put up 28 fastest laps and 26 laps led at Kansas 2 a couple weeks ago, and also won at Las Vegas 2 with 36 fastest laps and 75 laps led. Those are the two most recent races at 1.5-mile tracks. Additionally, Keselowski is one of the most consistent finishers here at Texas Motor Speedway, with six top 6 finishes in the last ten races–and who can forget his dominating performance in 2015, when he led 312 of 334 laps before ultimately finishing 2nd to Jimmie Johnson? Brad has a pretty good chance at getting his first career Texas victory this weekend.
Michael McDowell ($5,500) – This week, Michael McDowell comes in as the 30th-highest-priced driver in DraftKings, but he has actually been the 22nd-best in the series when it comes to average DraftKings points per race on the 1.5-mile tracks this season. That +8 difference makes him one of the best implied bargains in DFS this weekend. The thing about McDowell, though, is that he tends to qualify near that top 20 mark, so it makes it quite difficult going to heavy on him. With that being said, the #34 team tends to finish right around where they start, as they have an average starting position of 24.6 and an average finish of 23.8 on this track type in 2018. We’ll have to see how qualifying turns out this weekend, but it’s worth noting that McDowell has finished between 14th and 23rd in each of his last four starts here at Texas Motor Speedway.
Ross Chastain ($4,800) – As mentioned before, DraftKings isn’t too far off on their pricing this week. One driver that really stood out when I first looked at this week’s driver salaries, though, was Ross Chastain. This #15 team have been the model of consistency this season, especially on the 1.5-mile tracks. I also have a bit of a soft spot for them since they helped me win that $10,000 at Kentucky. Anyway, Chastain is averaging 20.2 DraftKings points per race on this track type in 2018 with an average finish of 27.1. Overall he has been the 30th-best when it comes to DraftKings points on this track type this season, and he’s the 37th-highest-priced for Texas 2 this Sunday. That +7 differential makes Chastain one of the highest implied bargains heading into the AAA Texas 500 weekend. He finished 18th here at Texas in the spring after starting 31st, and although it’s highly unlikely that that happens again, Ross should put up a good amount of points on Sunday for his extremely low salary.
Over-Priced DraftKings “Bust” at Texas 2
William Byron ($5,800) – Yes, even at $5,800. William Byron started 33rd here at Texas in the spring and came home with a top 10 finish, which is obviously great–but that’s a small sample size. And it actually makes it more astonishing that even with that great DraftKings day of 57.75 points back in April that Byron is still averaging just 10.25 DraftKings points per race on 1.5-mile tracks this season. Of course, a large part of this is the fact that he tends to qualify much higher than where he ends up racing, but having an average finish of 26.9 on this track type obviously isn’t good, especially for a Hendrick Motorsports car. Byron should be an easy plug-in option for DraftKings this weekend because of his name and super-low price, but I’ll gladly be under-weight on him–unless, of course, he qualifies dead last, although even then I’d consider it. Momentum-wise, this #24 team has been garbage for months now, with no result better than 19th since Watkins Glen in August.
