The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series rolls into Kansas Speedway this weekend for the Hollywood Casino 400, the second race at this track this season and 9th race on a 1.5-mile track in 2018. As far as DraftKings goes, they (expectedly) decreased the large GPP this weekend, as we have a $100,000 Track Record contest ($9 entry) with $20,000 going to 1st. About the only thing we can do is continue to fill the contests early, and then maybe somehow, some way, DraftKings will learn that the demand for Fantasy NASCAR is abundant, and they can bump up those contests.
The 1.5-mile tracks tend to be pretty predictable, with the same drivers consistently finishing up front. This season it has been The Big Three of Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex, Jr. that have pretty much dominated every race on this track type. As you can see on my 1.5-Mile Track Fantasy NASCAR Cheat Sheet, those three drivers have combined to take 44.7% of the fastest laps on these tracks in 2018, and have led a whopping 66.6% of the eight races (thus far).
The chances of this weekend’s optimal lineup in the Kansas 2 race not including Kyle Busch, Harvick, or Truex are slim to none. But let’s take a look at how all drivers are performing on the 1.5-mile tracks this year in DraftKings, as well as who to keep an eye on as we head into the Hollywood Casino 400 race weekend.
Average DraftKings Points Scored on 1.5-Mile Tracks in 2018
| Driver | Avg DraftKings Points Per Race | Avg Finish | Avg Fast Laps Per Race | Avg Laps Led Per Race | Avg Place Differenial |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | 80.69 | 04.13 | 41.38 | 72.63 | 02.25 |
| Kevin Harvick | 72.50 | 11.50 | 52.63 | 101.75 | -03.25 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 68.13 | 07.25 | 23.13 | 25.00 | 07.00 |
| Kyle Larson | 55.63 | 09.00 | 23.38 | 13.50 | 03.88 |
| Brad Keselowski | 46.34 | 09.00 | 12.13 | 11.75 | -01.75 |
| Joey Logano | 42.59 | 08.25 | 04.25 | 09.25 | 01.38 |
| Clint Bowyer | 37.84 | 12.13 | 06.88 | 02.63 | 01.88 |
| Denny Hamlin | 36.06 | 14.75 | 10.75 | 05.88 | 00.38 |
| Aric Almirola | 33.38 | 14.50 | 07.25 | 08.75 | -02.13 |
| Erik Jones | 33.06 | 12.75 | 09.50 | 08.00 | -04.25 |
| Kurt Busch | 32.66 | 13.75 | 08.63 | 19.63 | -06.75 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 30.84 | 18.50 | 05.00 | 00.38 | 03.13 |
| Ryan Blaney | 29.84 | 15.00 | 14.38 | 09.50 | -08.00 |
| Paul Menard | 29.25 | 13.75 | 01.50 | 00.00 | -01.50 |
| Kasey Kahne | 28.21 | 21.43 | 04.00 | 00.00 | 03.71 |
| 72 car | 24.63 | 25.75 | 00.50 | 00.00 | 06.13 |
| Chase Elliott | 24.19 | 18.25 | 03.75 | 00.50 | -03.50 |
| Michael McDowell | 23.59 | 23.38 | 03.75 | 02.75 | 01.25 |
| Chris Buescher | 23.38 | 22.25 | 02.13 | 00.00 | 00.88 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 23.31 | 18.50 | 02.25 | 02.50 | -04.00 |
| Alex Bowman | 23.28 | 19.88 | 03.63 | 00.13 | -02.50 |
| Ross Chastain | 23.00 | 25.63 | 00.00 | 00.00 | 04.63 |
| Trevor Bayne | 22.50 | 21.20 | 01.40 | 00.00 | -01.00 |
| Jamie McMurray | 22.16 | 19.88 | 00.88 | 00.00 | -02.75 |
| Daniel Suarez | 21.81 | 18.38 | 04.25 | 00.00 | -05.88 |
| David Ragan | 21.31 | 23.75 | 01.75 | 00.00 | 00.50 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 21.25 | 23.75 | 01.88 | 00.00 | 00.25 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 21.00 | 27.25 | 00.25 | 00.00 | 04.13 |
| Ryan Newman | 20.75 | 21.25 | 06.63 | 02.50 | -06.00 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | 20.06 | 23.50 | 00.38 | 00.00 | -00.63 |
| Austin Dillon | 19.47 | 21.75 | 01.88 | 02.13 | -04.25 |
| Matt Kenseth | 19.00 | 24.00 | 00.00 | 00.00 | -01.00 |
| Ty Dillon | 17.69 | 26.63 | 01.13 | 00.00 | -00.25 |
| Gray Gaulding Jr | 15.67 | 30.00 | 00.00 | 00.00 | 01.67 |
| William Byron | 13.28 | 25.50 | 00.88 | 00.13 | -05.88 |
ADJUSTED Average DraftKings Points Scored on 1.5-Mile Tracks in 2018
The chart below is the same as the one above, except it removes each driver’s worst performance of 2018 on the 1.5-mile tracks. Think of it as a mulligan of sorts.
| Driver | Avg DraftKings Points Per Race | Avg Finish | Avg Fast Laps Per Race | Avg Laps Led Per Race | Avg Place Differenial |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Busch | 87.07 | 03.29 | 44.14 | 81.71 | 01.71 |
| Kevin Harvick | 85.79 | 07.43 | 51.71 | 87.71 | -03.57 |
| Martin Truex Jr | 81.14 | 03.00 | 33.86 | 41.43 | 08.14 |
| Kyle Larson | 65.21 | 05.14 | 28.00 | 18.86 | 06.43 |
| Brad Keselowski | 54.54 | 05.57 | 17.00 | 24.14 | 00.86 |
| Joey Logano | 47.68 | 06.29 | 05.71 | 13.57 | 02.00 |
| Denny Hamlin | 43.61 | 12.00 | 11.29 | 06.86 | 00.00 |
| Erik Jones | 42.64 | 08.86 | 09.29 | 09.14 | -02.14 |
| Clint Bowyer | 41.32 | 10.57 | 07.86 | 03.00 | 00.71 |
| Kurt Busch | 40.46 | 10.71 | 09.71 | 22.43 | -05.00 |
| Aric Almirola | 39.29 | 12.00 | 08.71 | 10.00 | -02.00 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 37.25 | 16.14 | 04.86 | 00.43 | 03.14 |
| Ryan Blaney | 36.89 | 11.86 | 14.71 | 10.71 | -07.57 |
| Paul Menard | 33.00 | 11.43 | 01.14 | 00.00 | -00.29 |
| Chase Elliott | 30.29 | 15.71 | 04.14 | 00.57 | -02.71 |
| Trevor Bayne | 29.63 | 17.75 | 01.75 | 00.00 | 01.50 |
| Alex Bowman | 28.86 | 17.14 | 03.71 | 00.14 | -01.14 |
| Chris Buescher | 28.71 | 20.57 | 01.71 | 00.00 | 00.29 |
| Michael McDowell | 28.14 | 21.43 | 03.14 | 01.57 | 01.57 |
| 72 car | 27.00 | 24.57 | 00.57 | 00.00 | 07.00 |
| Jamie McMurray | 26.93 | 17.57 | 01.43 | 00.71 | -01.43 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 26.86 | 16.86 | 02.71 | 02.86 | -04.00 |
| Ryan Newman | 26.57 | 19.29 | 07.71 | 02.86 | -05.43 |
| Kasey Kahne | 26.21 | 17.57 | 03.86 | 00.00 | 02.71 |
| David Ragan | 25.50 | 21.71 | 01.29 | 00.00 | 01.86 |
| Matt Kenseth | 25.00 | 18.00 | 00.00 | 00.00 | -01.00 |
| Daniel Suarez | 24.79 | 16.86 | 04.71 | 00.00 | -05.29 |
| Ross Chastain | 24.71 | 25.00 | 00.00 | 00.00 | 04.71 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 23.79 | 25.86 | 00.29 | 00.00 | 04.71 |
| Austin Dillon | 23.71 | 19.57 | 02.14 | 02.43 | -03.14 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 23.07 | 22.86 | 01.71 | 00.00 | 00.29 |
| Darrell Wallace Jr | 23.07 | 21.43 | 00.43 | 00.00 | 00.29 |
| Ty Dillon | 21.07 | 25.00 | 01.29 | 00.00 | 00.71 |
| Gray Gaulding Jr | 18.20 | 28.80 | 00.00 | 00.00 | 02.20 |
| William Byron | 17.04 | 23.57 | 01.43 | 00.14 | -05.86 |
Kansas Hollywood Casino 400 Contenders
The Big Three (Four?) – We’ve ran eight races at 1.5-mile tracks this season, and Kevin Harvick ($12,300), Kyle Busch ($11,800), and Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,800) have won all but one of them. They’ve also combined for 44.7% of all fastest laps on this track type in 2018, as well as a whopping 66.6% of the laps led. Oh, and The Big Three have been the only winners of the last five races here at Kansas Speedway. None of those guys are officially locked into Round 3 of the Playoffs heading into Sunday, so it’s hard to imagine the #4 Ford, #18 Toyota, or #78 Toyota not going all-out for a win this weekend, and getting to victory lane–unless, of course, something crazy happens. It is worth noting, though, that Brad Keselowski ($10,500) is the most recent race winner at a 1.5-mile track (at Las Vegas, which opened up this year’s Playoffs), and he did win here at Kansas back in 2011, but that’s one of just three top 5 finishes for him at this track in 17 career starts. He’s probably going to need a win on Sunday to keep his championship hopes alive.
Ryan Blaney ($8,700) – I bet you were expecting Kyle Larson ($11,500) to be mentioned here, weren’t you? I mean, the #42 Chevrolet led 101 of the 267 laps here at Kansas back in May before ultimately finishing 4th, and Larson has the 3rd-best adjusted average finish on 1.5-mile tracks this season (5.1). However, I’m actually not a huge fan of Larson in high-pressure situations, and being in a must-win predicament would definitely be considered high-pressure. Instead I’m going to keep a closer eye on Ryan Blaney and the #12 Ford this weekend. Over the last three Kansas races, Blaney actually tops Larson in laps led (140 to 101) and fastest laps (80 to 62) while also being a safer pick (Larson has four finishes of 29th or worse in the last six races here while Blaney has finished 7th or better four times over that same span). The main reason I like Blaney as a sleeper for the Hollywood Casino 400 this weekend, though, is his qualifying potential: the last two Kansas races have been won from the pole, and Ryan has started on the front row in two of the last three races at this track as well. Larson’s best qualifying effort on 1.5-mile tracks this season was his 5th at the first Las Vegas race.
Potential DraftKings Bargains for Kansas 2
Joey Logano ($8,500) – Joey Logano just needs a good points day here at Kansas on Sunday, as he has a 39-point cushion over the cut line heading into the 2018 Hollywood Casino 400. And the good news for fans of the #22 is that Logano is a good qualifier on this track type–his average start on the 1.5-mile tracks this season is 9.6–as well as a good finisher, as Joey’s 8.3 average result on the 1.5-milers is 3rd-best in the series. As far as DraftKings goes, though, Logano doesn’t put up a lot of dominator points, so his adjusted average DK points per race is just 47.7. Still, that’s good enough for 6th-best in the Cup garage, and his $8,500 salary this week is 12th-highest. Ideally, we’d like to see Logano qualify between 5th and 9th, and then have other in his price range qualify outside of the top 15, so we can possibly take advantage of a lower #22 ownership.
Paul Menard ($7,200) – Paul Menard has been Mr. Reliable on the 1.5-mile tracks this year, sporting an adjusted average finish of 11.4 (10th-best in the series) while averaging 33.0 adjusted DraftKings points per race (14th-best in the series). Menard is priced decently at $7,200 for this weekend’s Hollywood Casino 400, but that is still only the 19th-highest salary on the slate–thus giving us a difference of +5. What would really be nice this weekend is if the #21 Ford qualifies in the mid-teens, as that should decrease Menard’s ownership percentage significantly. He has an average starting spot of 12.3 on this track type in 2018, so it wouldn’t be too surprising if that happened.
Trevor Bayne ($6,500) – Roush-Fenway Racing isn’t too shabby here at Kansas Speedway, especially Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,700), who has finished 13th or better in four of his last six starts here. And while I do like Stenhouse as a sleeper heading into the Hollywood Casino 400 race weekend, I like his teammate, Trevor Bayne, as more of a sleeper, especially in DraftKings since the #6 Ford is usually slower in qualifying than the #17 Ford. This season on the 1.5-mile tracks, though, Bayne is averaging 29.6 adjusted DraftKings points per race, which is good enough for 16th-best. His salary rank this weekend is 23rd-highest, giving us a differential of +7 (with only the 72 car, Buescher, and McDowell having bigger differences). Bayne has finished top 20 in four of his last five starts at Kansas and has also ended up 13th or better in three of his last four Cup Series starts overall (Talladega, Las Vegas 2, and Bristol 2).
