Don’t be surprised if Sunday night’s Coca-Cola 600 comes down to the guys on the front row, since over the last three Coke 600s, all winners have came from the top 3 starting spots. However, that’s not to say that a good qualifying effort automatically equals a good race run; this is the longest race of the year, and because of that, there will be plenty of opportunities for teams and drivers to make mistakes. Additionally, NASCAR added a fourth Stage for this race, so there’s another opportunity for strategy calls by the teams.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Target at Charlotte
DraftKings Drivers to Fade for the Charlotte Coca-Cola 600
Brad Keselowski ($10,400) – When you look at the DraftKings drivers priced over $10,000 this weekend, all of them have their own solid potential: Martin Truex, Jr. is has a bit of room for place differential and high dominator potential; Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch ($9,800 is close enough) start on the front row and each could easily lead a lot of laps and win; Kyle Larson starts in the back and could easily score over 70 FPTS without even leading a lap or posting one fast lap. When it comes to Brad Keselowski, though, there’s a lot less to like. Both Penske cars have struggled out of the gates here at Charlotte Motor Speedway this weekend, and although the Blue Deuce is a bit better off heading into Sunday, it’s hard to envision Keselowski doing much more than being there at the end. It’s definitely possible that Brad ends up with a solid top 5 finish this weekend, but that’s not the kind of performance I want out of a DraftKings driver that costs $10,400–especially with so many other, better options. Keselowski does have one win here at Charlotte but that’s hit only result better than 5th in fifteen career starts here. As far as DraftKings goes, he won’t be on many of my lineups on Sunday.
Kyle Larson ($10,100) – Okay, hear me out here. Imagine this scenario: there are three drivers that each lead 100+ laps on Sunday night, along with piling on a good number of fastest laps. And let’s say that those three drivers are the ones that, heading into race day, are most likely to accomplish that: Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex, Jr. You can even possibly throw in Chase Elliott and Jimmie Johnson. But my point here is that, because of the extra 100 miles this weekend, there’s quite a few dominator FPTS available in DraftKings–which directly takes away the value of place differential FPTS. Now, let’s go back to the scenario of those three drivers dominating, since there is not one clear-cut dominator this weekend. Larson is going to be incredibly high-owned on Sunday because of his 39th-place starting spot, but there’s no guarantee that he doesn’t run into problems during the race. Not to mention it’s going to be hard to post fastest laps when he’s back in traffic. That’s exactly what I call a golden fade opportunity. Now the question becomes, are you gutsy enough to roll with it? It’s definitely an option to keep in mind when building your lineups for this year’s Coca-Cola 600.
Ryan Blaney ($9,000) – This is the highest that Ryan Blaney has been priced this season, and although he’s led a combined 231 laps over the last two races at 1.5-mile tracks, that doesn’t guarantee success here at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Blaney has never really had a good run here at Charlotte in the Cup Series, and even though the #21 Ford was fast during both practice sessions on Saturday, we never really saw Blaney simulate a long run. Maybe that’s why he said they’re not even close with their setup this weekend. Another reason to fade Blaney on Sunday is his 7th-place qualifying effort, which severely limits his place differential potential. The positive note is that he did win the Xfinity race here on Saturday, but the only way he’s going to be worth the risk (and price) in DraftKings on Sunday is if he leads a good amount of laps–and I don’t see that happening.
Denny Hamlin ($9,200) – Charlotte Motor Speedway has been a very good race track for Denny Hamlin as of late–eleven top 10s in the last thirteen races, to be exact–but that doesn’t guarantee success this weekend. Hamlin has been a constant source of disappointment on the intermediate race tracks this season, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t have a negative place differential in Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600, either. Denny really wasn’t happy with his #11 Toyota in Happy Hour on Saturday, and that’s not a good position to be in with no more track time before the race. The only decent run that Hamlin has had on an intermediate track this season was his 6th-place run at Las Vegas, but don’t forget that he only had the 12th-best driver rating in that race.
Erik Jones ($7,800) – DraftKings sure knows how to price Erik Jones so that you have to seriously consider putting him in your lineups. That’s the case once again this weekend. Usually a guy like Jones would get an automatic “no” from me by qualifying 5th, but that #77 Toyota was incredibly fast in both practice sessions on Saturday, and that had to turn some heads in the garage. Also, Jones said this is the fastest car he’s had in awhile. Now, with that being said, I’m a results guys, and Erik is severely lacking in that department. Through the first eleven races of this season, Jones has just one top 10 finishes and an average result of 21.1. Also, this team has yet to show that they can keep up with the changes that the tracks go through, and Charlotte is going to go through a lot on Sunday night. Jones might be solid for the first three Stages on Sunday night, but I’m expecting his usual late-race fade to occur once again. Chances are the best move in DraftKings this weekend will be to stay away from him.
