The first night race of the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season is this weekend at Kansas Speedway, and it’s already off to an interesting start since a handful of drivers didn’t get through inspection in time before qualifying on Friday and will have to start in the back of the pack. Those guys moving up isn’t quite a guarantee to happen, though, as qualifying has gotten very important here at Kansas ever since it was repaved in 2012. As far as the recent races here, usually we see one driver lead at least 40% of the race. Now the question is who is that most likely to be on Saturday night.
With 267 laps scheduled, that means there will probably be close to 125 FPTS for fastest laps and 66.75 FPTS for laps led up for grabs on Saturday night, the first number obviously depending on the number of caution laps.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Fade at Kansas
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Kansas (over $9,500)
Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,700) – Chances are, Martin Truex, Jr. is going to be the highest owned driver in DraftKings for Saturday night’s Go Bowling 400, and while that does create a great fade opportunity, the fact of the matter is that Truex is the most likely driver to go out and dominate the race this weekend. Whenever the #78 Toyota is fast right off of the truck on a race weekend, the rest of the garage should be worried…and that was the exact case at Kansas Speedway this weekend. Truex was fastest in Practice #1 on Friday and then wound up 3rd-fastest in Happy Hour with the 5th-best ten-lap average. The #78 Toyota led 172 laps in this race one year ago and was in the lead for 95 circuits in this event two years ago. The only concern I have with Truex this weekend is that he hasn’t had a top 5 finish since the Fontana race in March, but that should easily change this weekend.
Kyle Larson ($9,900) – One reason I like targeting Kyle Larson in DraftKings this weekend is because he’s right in that price range where he will probably be overlooked on race day. His salary of $9,900 isn’t overly expensive, but when you’re sandwiched in between Harvick, Johnson, Truex, and Logano, there’s going to be plenty of lineups where Larson simply doesn’t fit. That sounds like an opportunity to me. The #42 Chevrolet qualified 9th for Saturday night’s race but should be challenging for the win before it’s all said and done. Larson hasn’t had a great history here at Kansas Speedway but he did finish 2nd here back in 2014, and let’s not forget that he has been a legitimate threat to win in all of the intermediate track races this season. In practice this weekend, Larson did have to go to a backup car, but it looks like that one is better than his primary was; Kyle still ended up 2nd-fastest in Happy Hour and had the 4th-best ten-lap average, too.
Mid-Range DraftKings Drivers to Target at Kansas (between $7,500 and $9,500)
Ryan Blaney ($8,000) – Typically, pole sitters fare pretty well here at Kansas Speedway. In three of the last six races at this track, the driver starting P1 has led at least 100 laps, and over that same span, the pole sitter has led an average of 87.5 laps per race. And as far as Ryan Blaney goes, it’s hard to not remember the Texas race one month ago, where he started 2nd, led 148 laps and had 51 fastest laps before ultimately finishing 12th. This time around, Blaney is on the pole, which is risky in and of itself. However, if he’s able to put up plenty of dominator points on Saturday night, he’s going to be well worth the $8,000 salary. Blaney finished 5th in this race one year ago and was 6th in ten-lap average during Happy Hour on Friday.
Erik Jones ($7,700) – For the money, Erik Jones is probably your best bet among the drivers that have to start in the back after failing to get through inspection before qualifying on Friday. Jimmie Johnson is the best choice among those guys, but his salary is set at $10,100 for this race, so you can make the case that he’s not worth it. Anyway, Jones ran this race a couple of years ago and was pretty impressive but ended up wrecking late and finishing 40th. And while it’s certainly possible that the bad luck bug will hit the #77 team again here this weekend, Erik has still been pretty consistent in posting top 20 finishes this season, and that kind of results will yield a pretty nice amount of FPTS in DraftKings. Erik was 12th-fastest in Happy Hour on Friday and ranked 9th in terms of ten-lap average.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Kansas (under $7,500)
Ty Dillon ($6,700) – It’s slim pickings in the low-dollar range of DraftKings this weekend. However, as usual, Ty Dillon stands out as one of the best options on Saturday night, as he qualified back in 22nd but should be able to make his way up into the mid-teens before the Go Bowling 400 is all said and done. Ty has quietly become one of the most reliable mid-tier Fantasy NASCAR drivers this season and it’s no coincidence that he has been on quite a few winning GPP lineups in DraftKings. Dillon ran in this race two years ago in the #33 Circle Sport Chevrolet and wound up finishing 26th after starting 32nd.
Michael McDowell ($5,700) – Both Michael McDowell and Landon Cassill ($5,200) will start from back in 34th and 35th (respectively) on Saturday night, and while there is a pretty significant salary cap savings by going with Cassill, you’re more likely to find success in DraftKings with McDowell in your lineup this weekend. The #95 Chevrolet has finished in the mid-20s in most of the intermediate track races this season and there’s no reason to think that McDowell isn’t capable of having a similar result this weekend. He finished 28th and 22nd in the two Kansas races last season and finishes like those would yield 22 and 36 FPTS out of McDowell this weekend, which are pretty good scores for a $5,700 salary.
