DraftKings success at Talladega is going to be all about your avoiding the wrecks. Over the past four races at this track, nearly 20% of the cars that started the races did not finish them. Additionally, teams are going to be pulling out the strategy options this week with the stage endings, just like we saw in the season-opening Daytona 500. Your best bet in DraftKings this week is to mainly go for place differential FPTS.
With 188 laps scheduled, that means there will probably be close to 75 FPTS for fastest laps and 47 FPTS for laps led up for grabs on Sunday, the first number obviously depending on the number of caution laps.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Fade at Talladega
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Talladega (over $9,000)
Chase Elliott ($9,200) – Of the drivers that cost over $9,000 in DraftKings this weekend, there’s only one that qualified worse than 13th. So when you’re considering the other ‘top tier’ drivers to roster, you’re really trying to lock down the one that is going to lead the most laps and win the GEICO 500 on Sunday. Now, you may be surprised that I’m telling you this while explaining why you should target Chase Elliott, who has never won in a Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series event. One of the reasons why I think Elliott is a good pick this weekend is because I think he’s going to end up being under-owned since there’s a few other drivers in this price range that are projected to score more than Chase on Sunday. However, the #24 Chevrolet is more than capable of getting up there and leading this race. Chase led 36 total laps in the two Talladega races last season and also led 39 laps in this year’s Daytona 500. Finally, Elliott qualified 8th this weekend, which leaves a little bit of room for place differential FPTS. He finished 5th in this race last year.
Kevin Harvick ($9,300) – It’s very difficult to predict how a Talladega race is going to play out, but if I was a betting man, I’d say Sunday’s GEICO 500 is going to come down to either Kevin Harvick or Brad Keselowski ($10,500). However, I’d prefer going with Harvick over Keselowski for a couple of reasons. First is the fact that the #4 Ford will start 6th while the #2 Ford starts 3rd. Also, I think Harvick has a better chance of leading the most laps in this race. The #4 team brought the same car that they ran in this year’s Daytona 500, and if you remember back, Harvick led the most laps that day (50 of 200). As far as his record here at ‘Dega, Harvick has one victory and has wound up inside the top 10 in four of the last six events–and never worse than 15th over that span.
Mid-Range DraftKings Drivers to Target at Talladega (between $7,500 and $9,000)
Kyle Larson ($9,000) – Kyle Larson has had an up-and-down record at both restrictor plate tracks, but with the way this #42 team is running right now, how can you go against him? If you remember back to this year’s Daytona 500, Larson had a good shot at winning the Great American Race but ran out of gas in the closing laps. He still had the 3rd-best driver rating in that event. Here at Talladega, Larson finished a career-best 6th last October and, honestly, it wouldn’t be surprised if he challenged for a top 5 once again this weekend. As far as DraftKings goes, Larson is under-priced and will be highly owned. However, he’s going to start back in 21st, so the potential for a very big score is almost too good to pass up.
Ryan Blaney ($8,700) – With Kyle Larson priced at $9,000 and Clint Bowyer and Kurt Busch priced at $8,200 and $8,000 (respectively) it’s very possible that Ryan Blaney is going to be overlooked by a lot of DraftKings players and therefore be under-owned on Sunday. There’s a whole lot of things to like about the driver of the #21 Ford, though, and he should get serious consideration for your lineups on Sunday. Blaney finished 9th and 11th in the two Talladega races last season and also finished 4th in this race two years ago. His only bad finish over that four-race span was a 43rd-place result in the 2015 October race, but that was due to a blown engine. Additionally, Blaney wound up 2nd in this year’s Daytona 500, and he’s driving a Ford so you know he has good speed. Four of the last six Cup races have ended pretty badly for this #21 team so I guess you could say they’re due this weekend.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Talladega (under $7,500)
A.J. Allmendinger ($6,800) – This year’s Daytona 500 ended with A.J. Allmendinger in 3rd place (after starting all the way back in 38th) and while you can’t really expect that type of finish out of The Dinger at Talladega this weekend, it wouldn’t be all that surprising if A.J. ends up being one of the higher-scoring drivers in DraftKings–especially in this price range. Allmendinger qualified 27th for Sunday’s GEICO 500, which gives him a pretty nice amount of room for place differential FPTS. Also, if you look at the last four Talladega races, A.J. has finished 17th or better in three of those events. It’s a bit of a risk–especially when you look at how terrible this #47 team has been this season–but putting Allmendinger in your lineup could pay some big dividends this weekend.
Cole Whitt ($5,200) – Not only is Cole Whitt wildly under-priced this weekend–5th-lowest, DraftKings? Seriously?–but he has the potential to be one of the top-scoring drivers on Sunday as well. Qualifying isn’t really Whitt’s strength on the restrictor plate tracks, as we all saw this weekend when he ended up 38th in qualifying. However, he knows how to stay out of trouble and that’s what it’s going to take to get a good finish here on Sunday. Going back to the Daytona 500 in February, Cole Whitt finished 18th in that race, and it honestly wouldn’t be that surprising if he had a top 20 result in Sunday’s GEICO 500, too. Looking at his record here at Talladega, Whitt has made seven career starts in the Cup Series and has an average finish of 22.9. Even better, his last five starts at this track here have ended with him in 18th, 22nd, 13th, 15th, and 21st.
