Putting together a great DraftKings lineup for a restrictor plate race is a completely different animal than any other event on the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series circuit. Any driver can go from 2nd to 20th and back to 2nd within a couple of laps at these restrictor plate tracks, so watching the live scoring during the race is pretty much more of a waste of time than anything. As always, quite a few of the drivers that qualified up front this weekend shouldn’t make your DraftKings lineups, but there are also some drivers starting mid-pack or worse that will make great fade opportunities.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Target at Talladega
DraftKings Drivers to Fade for the Talladega GEICO 500
Jimmie Johnson ($9,700) – Many DraftKings players will be anchoring their lineups around Jimmie Johnson this weekend, and because of that he makes an excellent fade opportunity. Johnson qualified back in 30th for Sunday’s GEICO 500, and while he stands to earn a whole bunch of FPTS due to place differential (with a good finish of course), that’s not necessarily a guarantee. Jimmie does have two victories this season but let’s not forget how mediocre he has been in nearly every other race in 2017. He ended up finishing 34th in this year’s Daytona 500 and has just one finish better than 18th in the last five races here at Talladega. If he ends up 18th on Sunday, Johnson will only score 38 FPTS in DraftKings–not exactly the type of score you want from a $9,700 driver.
Matt Kenseth ($9,100) – This is a “flat out avoid” designation in pretty much every Fantasy NASCAR game. Matt Kenseth was once heralded as a top restrictor plate racer in the Cup Series, but really he hasn’t done a whole lot to back that up–especially as of late; Kenseth has qualified inside the top 8 in each of the previous four Talladega races (and did this weekend as well) but hasn’t finished better than 23rd in any of those events. In fact, he has just one result better than 20th in the last seven races at this track. When you add in the fact that this #20 team has been struggling so much this season, there’s really no reason to roll the dice with Kenseth this weekend, in DraftKings especially. He finished dead last in this year’s Daytona 500.
Danica Patrick ($6,300) – With a low salary, a 31st-place starting spot, and a Ford to race with, Danica Patrick is (understandably) going to be a popular pick in DraftKings this weekend. However, as is the case with most races, Danica owners should prepare to be disappointed. She has ran well at the other restrictor plate track (Daytona) but hasn’t quite found much success here at Talladega; in eight career starts at this track, Danica’s best finish has been 19th and overall she has an average of 24.9. Additionally, this #10 team hasn’t ran well all season, with just two top 20 finishes in the first nine races. In this year’s Daytona 500, the #10 Ford came home 33rd. I can’t blame you for rolling the dice with Danica on Sunday, but I just don’t see it working out.
Erik Jones ($8,500) – I’ve stopped trying to figure out how or why DraftKings prices drivers the way they do. I understand that, with restrictor plate races, the pricing is a bit different than other tracks, but for Erik Jones to be the highest he has been all season makes no sense at all. Anyway, the #77 Toyota qualified 14th for Sunday’s GEICO 500, which is just a little too high to take a shot with Erik Jones, in my opinion anyway. There’s no doubt that the Furniture Row Racing Toyotas have a bunch of speed, but Erik Jones has yet to show that he can actually back up that speed with a good finish. He wound up finishing 39th in the Daytona 500 this year, and this Sunday will be Erik’s first Cup start at Talladega Superspeedway.
Joey Logano ($10,700) – Penske Racing has won four of the last five Talladega races with Joey Logano being the victor in half of them. However, the two races that Logano has won here were both in the fall. And when you look at his record in this race specifically, the results are pretty bad. Surprisingly bad. Since this Talladega race was moved to the month of May back in 2012, Joey has finished 26th, 35th, 32nd, 33rd, and 25th. No, that’s not a typo. This weekend, Logano has to be considered one of the favorites to win the race, and he’s eventually going to break this little streak he’s on, but it’s hard to look past those disappointing finishes. And while Logano is the highest-priced DraftKings driver this week, he still should have a pretty high ownership considering the potentially high value with the lower-priced drivers as well as the fact that the #22 Ford qualified 12th. Therefore, this creates a pretty good fade situation. For the record, I’m going to have quite a bit of Joey Logano on all of my Fantasy NASCAR rosters, but I’ll probably be underweight when it comes to DraftKings.
