This will include final thoughts and strategies to consider for Sunday’s race, as well as projected FPTS for each driver. The charts below are explained but if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to contact me. If I have any last-minute thoughts on the race, I will add those to this post on race day, so be sure to check back.
- Will we race? Rain is in the forecast for most of Sunday, and even though it doesn’t take very long to dry this half-mile race track, it can’t be dried if it continues to rain. A couple of the meteorologists that specialize in race weekend weather estimate that there’s about a 20% chance that the Cup Series races on Sunday. We could very easily be looking at a Monday race, but don’t forget that DraftKings lineups still lock at 2:00 pm ET.
- NOTE: The race has been postponed to Monday at 1:00 pm ET and that is when DraftKings lineups will lock as well.
- Bristol Motor Speedway put down a layer of VHT on the bottom groove of the track in hopes of recreating the “old” Bristol. Kyle Larson was determined to bring in a second groove during practice this weekend, though, and many people do believe that there will be a secondary racing line that comes into play at some point during this 500-lap race. Larson’s experimenting in practice could help him a lot on race day.
- NOTE: There was no additional VHT added between Saturday and Sunday.
- With there being 500 laps in this race, that means dominator points are more important than ever. It’s easy to point toward the guys starting up front as the favorites to lead the most laps and grab those dominator points, but that’s not a guarantee. The last time we were here, Kevin Harvick led the most laps (124) after starting back in 24th
Projected Base FPTS at Bristol
The following chart takes into account the very basics: the starting position and the projected finish of each driver. The projected finishes are averaged from five different ranking systems, using both mathematical equations as well as personal rankings. This chart also includes the average projected base FPTS–which doesn’t take into account fastest laps or laps led points–as well as the dollar per FPT. I don’t try to project fastest laps or laps led–that’s up to you. You can click the headers below to sort the chart by that attribute. By default it is sorted by the average projected finish of the drivers.
| Driver | DraftKings Salary | Starting Position | Avg. Projected Finish | Avg Proj Base FPTS | Dollar Per FPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Logano | $10,000 | 5 | 03.0 | 43 | $233 |
| Kyle Busch | $10,600 | 7 | 03.4 | 44.8 | $237 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $9,700 | 11 | 03.6 | 49 | $198 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,400 | 2 | 03.8 | 39 | $241 |
| Brad Keselowski | $10,300 | 4 | 04.2 | 40.2 | $256 |
| Kyle Larson | $10,100 | 1 | 05.0 | 35 | $289 |
| Kevin Harvick | $10,400 | 10 | 05.6 | 42.8 | $243 |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,400 | 9 | 08.6 | 35.8 | $235 |
| Jamie McMurray | $8,000 | 8 | 08.8 | 34.4 | $233 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr | $8,600 | 20 | 11.4 | 41.2 | $209 |
| Martin Truex Jr | $9,500 | 3 | 12.6 | 21.8 | $436 |
| Kurt Busch | $7,700 | 15 | 12.8 | 33.4 | $231 |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,200 | 6 | 13.4 | 23.2 | $353 |
| Ryan Newman | $7,500 | 13 | 13.4 | 30.2 | $248 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,100 | 19 | 13.6 | 35.8 | $198 |
| Matt Kenseth | $9,100 | 22 | 14.0 | 38 | $239 |
| Trevor Bayne | $6,800 | 12 | 14.2 | 27.6 | $246 |
| Kasey Kahne | $7,600 | 17 | 14.6 | 31.8 | $239 |
| Denny Hamlin | $8,800 | 16 | 15.2 | 29.6 | $297 |
| Erik Jones | $7,800 | 14 | 16.0 | 26 | $300 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,300 | 21 | 17.0 | 31 | $235 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,000 | 23 | 19.6 | 27.8 | $252 |
| Ty Dillon | $6,300 | 24 | 21.4 | 25.2 | $250 |
| Paul Menard | $6,400 | 26 | 21.8 | 26.4 | $242 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,500 | 25 | 22.6 | 23.8 | $273 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,700 | 27 | 23.0 | 25 | $268 |
| Aric Almirola | $6,600 | 18 | 23.4 | 15.2 | $434 |
| Danica Patrick | $6,200 | 29 | 24.0 | 25 | $248 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,500 | 28 | 25.4 | 21.2 | $259 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,300 | 30 | 25.4 | 23.2 | $228 |
| David Ragan | $6,100 | 33 | 27.4 | 22.2 | $275 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,900 | 31 | 28.4 | 18.2 | $324 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,700 | 32 | 30.0 | 16 | $356 |
| Timmy Hill | $4,900 | 38 | 33.2 | 15.6 | $314 |
| Gray Gaulding | $4,700 | 36 | 33.2 | 13.6 | $346 |
| Reed Sorenson | $5,100 | 34 | 33.4 | 11.2 | $455 |
| Derrike Cope | $4,600 | 39 | 33.6 | 15.8 | $291 |
| Jeffrey Earnhardt | $4,800 | 37 | 33.8 | 13.4 | $358 |
| Corey LaJoie | $4,500 | 35 | 34.8 | 9.4 | $479 |
