Expect the unexpected at Texas Motor Speedway this weekend. The 2017 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 is setting up to be a great race on Sunday, as we have a bunch of good cars starting in the back due to more inspection issues during qualifying on Friday. The key to putting together a solid DraftKings lineup this weekend, however, is going to be balancing out the place differential and dominator potentials of the high-priced drivers. Heading into Sunday, there aren’t many good ways to go with the mid- and low-dollar drivers, but you could make a case for almost all of the high-priced drivers. Now the question becomes, which of those guys will score the most FPTS?
With 334 laps scheduled, that means there will be close to 150 FPTS for fastest laps and 87.5 FPTS for laps led up for grabs on Sunday, the first number obviously depending on the number of caution laps.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Avoid at Texas
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Texas (over $9,500)
Kyle Busch ($9,900) – If you can’t quite afford Kyle Larson ($10,200) this weekend, Kyle Busch is another great option to grab a bunch of place differential FPTS on Sunday. With drivers saying it’s going to be very hard to pass here on Sunday, it’s better to have a driver that is aggressive on the restarts, and that means Kyle Busch. Additionally, Rowdy wouldn’t let his team bring out the backup car on Friday because he thought this primary car had a whole bunch of speed, and who are we to disagree there? Rowdy wasn’t able to post a blazing fast lap during the practice sessions on Saturday but he did have the best ten-lap average in Happy Hour. For what it’s worth, Busch is on a five-race streak of top 5 finishes here at Texas Motor Speedway and is the defending winner of this race.
Brad Keselowski ($10,500) – If anybody is going to dominate this race on Sunday, it’s going to be Brad Keselowski. He will start from 5th when the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 goes green but has a car that can get to the front with ease. It’ll all just come down to whether or not Harvick has a car strong enough to hold the Blue Deuce off. With that being said, when (not if) Keselowski gets to the lead on Sunday, he’s just going to start racking up the FPTS. Thus far in 2017, Brad has had 232 fastest laps, which is best in the series, and he should add plenty to that total on Sunday. Keselowski was fast in both practice sessions on Saturday and don’t forget that he led 89 laps at Las Vegas last month. Additionally, with how much comparison this “new” Texas is getting to Kentucky Speedway, how can you go against BK? In six starts over there, he has amassed three victories, including a win on the “new” track last season. Keselowski is the most expensive driver in DraftKings this weekend but he should be well worth it–unlike Jimmie Johnson last weekend, who some people couldn’t quite understand why I had him on the avoid list.
Mid-Range DraftKings Drivers to Target at Texas (between $7,500 and $9,500)
Chase Elliott ($9,500) – From a base FPTS-per-dollar perspective, Chase Elliott might be the best value in the field this weekend. He’s going to start from back in 33rd when Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 goes green but has a car that can still contend for a top 5 finish as long as he can get track position. Chase was one of the fastest cars on the track during Practice #2 on Saturday morning, posting the 5th-best lap time, and then in Happy Hour he ranked 2nd-fastest. Elliott wound up inside the top 5 in both races here at Texas last season and was 3rd at Las Vegas earlier this year. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of ownership percentage Chase Elliott has on Sunday, as some players may opt for the higher-priced guys and not be able to afford the #24. He’s going to be in a lot of DraftKings lineups this weekend but it may not be as high as originally thought.
Erik Jones ($7,600) – Erik Jones will be another driver making his way through the field on Sunday, as he destroyed his primary car in the first practice session of the weekend and never made it on to the track during qualifying. Still, the #77 Toyota had good speed in it off the truck, and the backup cars are pretty damn similar to the primary cars anyway. Jones was just 24th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning but wound up 13th on the speed chart in Happy Hour later that day. Another thing to like about him is that he won the Xfinity race, and that extra track time should pay dividends on Sunday. By the way, while this post may seem like it’s saying to target a bunch of ‘no-brainer’ drivers, that’s just how it’s going to be this week. Getting 40+ base FPTS out of a guy like Erik Jones (and for only $7,600) is something you’d kill for at any other race. And as I said in the opener of this post, the real money-making decisions are going to come down to how you navigate the higher-priced drivers. You can’t predict wrecks on race day, and it’s never good to be in a position to fade a high-owned driver, hoping he has some issues during the race and you skate by the competition.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Texas (under $7,500)
Kasey Kahne ($7,300) – Kasey Kahne was actually very good here at Texas Motor Speedway before the repave so it will be interesting to see how he does this weekend. On the “old” track, Kasey has finished 8th in three of the last four races here and 11th or better in six of the last eight. So from that perspective, he was a pretty under-priced driver by DraftKings this weekend, and then when the #5 Chevrolet didn’t make it on to the track for qualifying on Friday, Kahne’s value shot up even higher. You shouldn’t expect a top 10 charge out of this #5 team but a top 15 isn’t out of the question. At Kentucky last year, Kasey had an average running position of 16th and wound up finishing 14th when the checkered flag flew, and then at Las Vegas earlier this year he wound up 12th. Kahne just needs to stay out of trouble as he makes his way through the field on Sunday. It should be noted that Kahne did wreck his primary car during Happy Hour but it’s not a major concern considering he was already at the back of the pack to begin with.
Chris Buescher ($6,000) – It’s not very often that a driver makes it on to nearly all of my DraftKings lineups in a given weekend, but there’s a good change that that will be the case with Chris Buescher on Sunday. He was another one of those drivers that didn’t get to make a qualifying attempt and will have to start from back in 38th. And any time you have a chance to get 40+ base FPTS out of a low-dollar driver like this with very little risk, you have to take it. But that’s not the only reason to be heavy on Buescher this weekend. Looking at the rest of the drivers in this price range, who else is there? Due to the shenanigans that happened during qualifying on Friday, every other sub-$6,500 driver out-qualified where they should run on Sunday. The only other guy you could make a case for is Cole Whitt ($5,800) but even he qualified high, up in 28th. Speed-wise, Buscher wound up 21st-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday and 17th-best in Happy Hour. Last year he finished 28th and 21st in the two races here at Texas Motor Speedway.
