Every time we come to Martinsville, it’s a little tricky to try and handicap the race. Not only is practice data hard to analyze–well, when you have it, thanks for that clusterf**k today, NASCAR–since the fuel runs are so long here, but since this is such a short track, the leaders start lapping cars extremely quick. Therefore, if a car’s initial setup is off just a little bit here on Sunday, a driver could very quickly find him/herself one or two laps down. Additionally, one mistake by a pit crew could also put a driver multiple laps down here. Sunday should be interesting to say the least: it’s the first short track race of the season!
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Target at Martinsville
DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Martinsville STP 500
Jimmie Johnson ($10,600) – Qualifying getting rained out was about the best thing possible for the “Fade Johnson” crowd. The #48 Chevrolet is going to start back in 17th for Sunday’s STP 500, and while place differential FPTS are important, you have to take a step back and look at the overall race. With Martinsville, we’re set to run 500 laps on Sunday, and that means over 200 fastest lap FPTS and 125 laps led FPTS. Johnson’s potential place differential FPTS are suddenly dwarfed. Then when you add in the fact that he is the highest-priced driver in DraftKings this weekend, he’s going to need to get a good portion of those dominator FPTS in order for it to make sense to roster him. And when you take into account the fact that the dominators will probably be Kyle Busch, Logano, and Larson, it makes even less sense to consider Johnson. It’ll be interesting to see the percentages of lineups that Jimmie is on because of his record here at Martinsville (nine wins, 7.3 average finish) but I’ll tell you this much: he will be on close to none of mine.
Kurt Busch ($7,900) – There are so many things to not like about Kurt Busch this weekend that I’m not sure where to start. First off is the fact that he is absolutely horrendous here at Martinsville. In Kurt’s last 22 starts at this race track, he has exactly one top 10 finish, and that was his victory here back in 2014. I still remember that race vividly and I still don’t understand how he won considering his car was half wrecked. But, you know what they say, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while. At $7,900, Kurt Busch is actually reasonably priced this weekend, but his 14th-place starting spot makes it incredibly difficult to consider rostering him. Nine times out of ten, Kurt is going to be a bad Fantasy NASCAR pick at Martinsville, and with all of the problems this #41 team has been having since their Daytona 500 win, it’s hard to imagine them having a good day here on Sunday.
Chase Elliott ($9,100) – It’s not very often that you see Chase Elliott on an “avoid” list, but that’s going to be the best strategy this weekend in DraftKings. His salary is actually reasonable this week but the fact that the #24 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 2nd severely limits Chase’s viability. The fact of the matter is that, whenever a driver starts this far up, he’s going to have to accumulate a good chunk of dominator points throughout the race, and heading into the STP 500 it’s just hard to imagine Chase Elliott doing that. He wasn’t terribly slow during the practice sessions on Saturday but at the same time he wasn’t overly fast. And when you have guys like Larson, Truex, Keselowski, Logano, and Kyle Busch sitting up there and just waiting for their turn to lead, it’s going to be difficult for Elliott to stay up there. A good day out of this #24 team on Sunday would be a top 10 finish, but even then he’s not worth rostering in DraftKings.
Matt Kenseth ($8,800) – It’s hard to pinpoint what the hell is going on with this #20 team right now but suddenly they have three finishes of 36th or worse in the five Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races ran this year. Because of that, Kenseth is going to start 25th here at Martinsville on Sunday, and heading into the race weekend it looked like he would be the perfect mid-range driver since he has finished 6th or better in five of the last seven races here. However, that #20 Toyota was consistently one of the slowest among the ‘top tier’ drivers in practice on Saturday, and unless this team makes some wholesale changes to the good before the green flag drops on Sunday, Kenseth could very easily find himself one or two laps down early in the STP 500. This #20 team made a total of 61 laps in the two practice sessions on Saturday, which tells me that their car is borderline horrible. Stay away, stay far, far away.
Daniel Suarez ($6,800) – Third time’s a charm, right? Daniel Suarez has been on my “avoid” list for DraftKings for much of the season, although in the last two races he has came away with top 10 finishes. I couldn’t believe it when he wound up 7th at Fontana last week. Anyway, I’m more interesting in picking drivers that legitimately run well and don’t just luck their way into a good finish, so Suarez won’t come anywhere near my lineups this week. Additionally, it will be very surprising if the #19 Toyota even finishes this race on Sunday. Suarez already wrecked the primary car this weekend and look god-awful for most of the two practice sessions on Saturday. He’ll be credited with a 19th-place starting spot on Sunday but will have to start in the rear due to the car change. You couldn’t pay me to put Daniel Suarez in my lineup this week.
