Due to what unfolded on Friday during qualifying, it’s going to be more important than ever to have the dominating driver in your lineup this weekend. Joey Logano, Jimmie Johnson, and Trevor Bayne are going to be in a whole bunch of lineups on Sunday, so now we have to look at which other drivers to fill in the final three spots. Looking at recent race trends here at Fontana, over the last four events, three of them had a driver lead 100+ laps (50%), but it should be noted that only one of those guys actually won the race (Kyle Busch in 2013). Also, the vast majority of laps led here at Auto Club Speedway were credited to drivers that started inside the top 5, so keep that in mind.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Avoid at Fontana
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Fontana (over $9,000)
Please note: Joey Logano ($10,300) and Jimmie Johnson ($9,800) are the top-ranked plays in this price range. However, they also fall into the ‘no-brainer’ category, so we’ll just skip talking in-depth about them. They both are legitimate top 10 threats and start back in 35th and 37th, respectively. Both are also going to be very highly owned, so if you want to fade them and hope something happens during the race, more power to you.
Kyle Larson ($9,100) – It’s weird how things work out. Heading into the race weekend, Kyle Larson was almost guaranteed to be the highest-owned driver in DraftKings, simply because they have him priced so low. However, on Friday, he went out and won the pole for Sunday’s Auto Club 400, which should scare some people away from putting him in their lineup. Don’t be one of those people. This #42 Chevrolet is really, really good. Larson was probably the happiest I’ve ever heard him during Practice #2 on Saturday, and while the #42 team found a couple issues during Happy Hour (as well as the wall–only minor damage), Larson was still one of, if not the fastest driver on-track. He was 5th in overall speed and 3rd in ten-lap average during that final practice. He’s got major dominator potential here on Sunday and should be a threat for the win. Plus, how can you go against the guy with three straight 2nd-place finishes?
Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,400) – If somebody is going to ruin Kyle Larson’s party on Sunday afternoon, Truex has to be at the top of the list. We’ve seen it time and time again: the #78 Toyota shows a decent amount of speed during practice, Truex is ‘pretty happy’ with it, and then he goes out and dominates the race on Sunday. Most recently? Las Vegas, just two weeks ago. Now, as far as his record here at Fontana goes, Truex has never posted a top 5 finish here, but it’s only a matter of time. He was running inside the top 5 in this race last year but got into the wall and ended up 32nd. Still, he led 21 laps that day. Truex rolls off the grid from 4th this weekend, and remember, most of the lap leaders here at Fontana come from a top 5 starting position. The #78 Toyota was 2nd-fastest in Happy Hour and had the best ten-lap average. Additionally, Erik Jones, who is Truex’s teammate, was blazing fast on the long runs, posting the top 15-lap average in that final session.
Mid-Range DraftKings Drivers to Target at Fontana (between $7,500 and $9,000)
Erik Jones ($7,700) – Erik Jones is really happy with his race car this weekend and has the most confidence heading into Sunday that I’ve seen him had all season long. And why wouldn’t he? He’s coming off of his first Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series top 10 finish of the season and he has a blazing fast car. The #77 Toyota was the fastest car–by a wide margin–in Practice #2 on Saturday afternoon, and during Happy Hour, Jones ranked 4th in both fastest lap as well as ten-lap average. In terms of 15-lap average, he was number one. Finally, just to put the cherry on top, Erik qualified 14th for Sunday’s Auto Club 400, so there’s some room for place differential FPTS, too. A top 10 finish and over 40 FPTS out of a driver that costs $7,700? I’ll take that every day of the week.
Clint Bowyer ($7,800) – This #14 Ford is actually a nice little off-sequence pick this weekend. Don’t forget that this team (with Tony Stewart behind the wheel) finished 7th in one of the Michigan races last season, which is a track somewhat similar to Auto Club Speedway. NASCAR also ran the low downforce package in both Michigan races last year. Looking at this weekend, Bowyer qualified 17th for Sunday’s race but should be able to improve upon that. He was just 23rd on the overall speed chart during Happy Hour but ranked 11th in ten-lap average and 4th in 15-lap average. Clint has had a rough go of things here at Fontana as of late, but this is the same guy that had four straight finishes of 9th or better here from 2009 to 2011. Momentum-wise, this #14 team has three straight top 15 finishes, including results of 11th and 10th in the two intermediate track races.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Fontana (under $7,500)
Please note: Trevor Bayne ($7,200) is the top low-dollar play this weekend since he wasn’t able to make a qualifying lap and will start from back in 36th, and because of that he’s going to be highly owned. He should finish between 18th and 24th. With that being said, at $7,200, Bayne is right there on the borderline of being in the mid-tier. So if you can’t afford him, or you need another low-dollar driver to complete your lineup, here’s a couple to target:
Aric Almirola ($6,500) – The #43 Ford showed top 15 speed during Friday’s first practice but was terribly slow during qualifying later that day. It was later revealed, however, that that car had something screwed up with the steering column when they went out to quality. Because of that, Aric Almirola will start from back in 31st when Sunday’s Auto Club 400 goes green, but he should race much better than that. Aric was 14th-fastest during the Happy Hour practice session and had the 17th-best ten-lap average. Here at Fontana, he has finished between 11th and 21st in three of the last four races, and then at Michigan last season he wound up 26th and 25th. At $6,500 this week, Almirola is worth a roll of the dice, especially if he’s able to post another top 20 result–which is what he has done in the last two Cup races.
Ty Dillon ($6,300) – Ty Dillon is one of the most reliable Fantasy NASCAR options in the garage if you’re looking for someone to consistently finish between 15th and 20th. He stays out of trouble and his team rarely makes mistakes. The #13 Chevrolet isn’t quite fast enough to get up there and compete for a top 10, but if they hit on something as the season goes on, there’s no doubt that Dillon is capable of it. This weekend, Ty will roll off the grid from his 21st-place starting spot but should be able to improve a few positions as the day goes on on Sunday. He’s going to be the go-to sub-$6,500 driver for most DraftKings players this weekend but that’s just what happens sometimes.
