Usually, the key to finishing near the top in DraftKings when it comes to the restrictor plate races is to find one or two ‘diamonds in the rough’–that is, drivers that aren’t highly drafted but still put up big points. Of course, you also have to have your mix of ‘favorites’ in your lineup, because there are quite a few drivers in the field that are consistently good picks at this track type. Place differential points are going to be huge in DraftKings this weekend, especially if you want to take home that $50,000 prize in the $20 contest being offered. The good news is that there are quite a few good cars starting in the rear on Sunday. Now you have to decide which ones make the most sense to shove in your lineup.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Avoid in the Daytona 500
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High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target in the Daytona 500 (over $9,000)
Jimmie Johnson ($10,000) – The ownership percentages on Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($10,600) and Brad Keselowski ($10,000) are going to be decently high on Saturday, and because of that Jimmie Johnson is going to be overlooked by many DFS players. Don’t be one of those people. Johnson is a consistent performer here at Daytona and has posted five top 5 finishes in the last eight non-exhibition races ran here–including two trips to victory lane back in 2013. Further, because of his 24th-place starting spot this Sunday, I have Jimmie projected with a higher amount of base FPTS than Earnhardt and Keselowski. Finally, looking at the last six overall races here at Daytona, the #48 Chevrolet has the 4th-most laps led in the series with 107. This team has had some bad luck thus far during Speed Weeks but are more than capable of a strong showing in The Great American Race on Sunday.
Joey Logano ($9,900) – Will we see back-to-back seasons where the Clash winner went on to take the Daytona 500 checkered flag? We will know soon enough. There’s really not a whole lot to dislike about Joey Logano in The Great American race this weekend. He has established himself as one of the top plate racers in the series, he’s a previous Daytona 500 champion, he has a very strong Penske car, and the list goes on and on. Oh, and for DraftKings purposes, he will start from back in 15th on Sunday, so the potential for some place differential FPTS are there. He’s also probably going to be pretty highly owned, but as mentioned before, you need one or two of those drivers in your lineup. Logano has finished 6th or better in three of the last four Daytona races and should be able to get up to the front and work with his teammate, Brad Keselowski, early on Sunday. Also, don’t forget about the extra boost of momentum Joey has after signing that new contract extension this weekend. It doesn’t make any sense but that type of stuff always has a positive effect on drivers.
Denny Hamlin ($9,600) – No driver has completed back-to-back victories in the Daytona 500 since Sterling Marlin did it back in 1994 and 1995, but Denny Hamlin could very easily add his name to the brief list of drivers who accomplished that feat on Sunday. The #11 Toyota was the best car in the field during last weekend’s Clash and led the most laps, and would have had a good finish if Denny and Brad Keselowski didn’t get tangled up on the last lap. You have to go for the win there, though. Then, in Thursday night’s Duel race, Hamlin had literally no help from his Toyota teammates but was still able to get to victory lane (after passing Dale Earnhardt, Jr.) thanks to a push from Austin Dillon. The #11 Toyota is the best car heading into Sunday’s Daytona 500, but at this lower price point, Hamlin is going to be in a lot of lineups. There’s an argument to fade him on Sunday, but that won’t be a very good strategy if Denny leads 80 laps and gets to victory lane.
Mid-Range DraftKings Drivers to Target in the Daytona 500 (between $7,500 and $9,000)
Kyle Larson ($8,500) – On Thursday night, Kyle Larson’s teammate, Jamie McMurray, showed just how much horsepower the Ganassi cars have, and it’s really not that surprising now that the organization has a closer working partnership with Hendrick due to Stewart-Haas’ transition to Ford. That should pay dividends on the restrictor plate tracks this year. Larson is going to be a boom or bust Fantasy NASCAR option here at Daytona on Sunday, and while he’s not very respected for his plate track skills, let’s not forget that the #42 Chevrolet had a 15.0 average finish at Daytona and Talladega last season. Here specifically, Kyle finished 7th and 6th, and you know he’s looking to build on those good runs. Larson ended 2016 with a whole bunch of momentum, and usually that’s a good sign for the next year’s Daytona 500 (for whatever reason). He will roll off the grid from 16th when Sunday’s race goes green.
Erik Jones ($8,300) – The potential Rookie of the Year has a couple of things going against him in DraftKings this weekend: 1.) he’s over-priced, and 2.) he’s unproven. That’s where you can capitalize though. Jones will start from back in 34th when Sunday’s Daytona 500 goes green, so he’s going to have some work to do in order to get to the front. The good news is that he’s going to have some help in the form of his teammate, Martin Truex, Jr., who will start in the rear after failing post-race inspection on Thursday night. The #77 Toyota that Jones is driving is a brand new operation, but that isn’t particularly a bad thing. It’s still a Toyota, which are probably the strongest at Daytona this weekend, and let’s not forget that Truex almost won this race last year. If you can fit Erik Jones in your lineup on Sunday, he has some major FPTS potential and will probably be under-owned.
Kasey Kahne ($7,600) – There’s going to be a lot of Martin Truex, Jr. in lineups on Sunday (he was originally in this spot for me to talk about) but why not try to be different? Kasey Kahne will be starting from back in 26th and has a car that could make it up into the top 10 before this year’s Great American Race is all said and done. Kasey has finished 13th and 9th in the last two Daytona 500s and if he’s able to post a finish like that here on Sunday, he’s going to be a steal at that $7,600 price point. It’s not very often that you get Hendrick power for such a low salary at a restrictor plate track.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target in the Daytona 500 (under $7,500)
A.J. Allmendinger ($6,700) – I love A.J. Allmendinger in a whole lot of Fantasy NASCAR leagues this weekend. He finished 4th in the Duel race on Thursday night but failed post-race inspection and will have to start from the rear (38th) on Sunday. As was mentioned before, though, you have to capitalize on those place differential FPTS in DraftKings this weekend. The #47 Chevrolet is strong enough to post a top 10 finish, but a result between 15th and 20th is much more likely. In fact, over the last four regular season races here at Daytona, Allmendinger has wound up between 13th and 21st in each of them, and don’t forget that he posted a solid average finish of 15.6 on the four restrictor plate races last season. When it comes to my base FPTS projections, A.J. Allmendinger is at the top of the list for this weekend’s race. The unfortunate thing is he’s probably going to be one of the higher-owned drivers on Sunday.
Ryan Blaney ($7,300) – Ryan Blaney and the #21 team had a very strong showing during their Duel race on Thursday night but ended up getting some damage mid-race that ended their night early. They also had to go to a backup car, and because of that Blaney will be starting this year’s Daytona 500 from in 36th. And just like A.J. Allmendinger, there’s a whole lot of place differential FPTS up for grabs there. Blaney had a rough go of things in his first career Monster Energy Cup start here at Daytona (39th in the 2015 Daytona 500 with a blown engine) but he wound up finishing 19th and 14th in the two regular season races here last season. Speed-wise, the Fords seem to be right there with the Toyotas heading into Sunday, and Blaney should have a good showing because of it–as long as he can stay out of trouble. Last year, he had the 8th-best average driver rating (89.2) on restrictor plate tracks and the 8th-best average finish (13.3), too.
Elliott Sadler ($6,600) – Sadler is a bit over-priced this weekend, but there is no risk in putting the driver starting dead last in your lineup on Sunday. Elliott is no stranger to Cup racing and if he can just go out there and drive smart he could easily come away with a mid-20s finish. An early (or late) “big one” wreck that doesn’t include Sadler could easily make him one of the best point-per-dollar plays in the field. Remember, finding a ‘diamond in the rough’ is an important part of being very successful on Sunday, and Sadler’s high salary is bound to deter quite a few people from rostering him.
