Part of succeeding in DraftKings on race day is avoiding the disappointing drivers that are highly owned by your competitors. For example, Jeffrey Earnhardt getting a DNF at 1% ownership doesn’t help you much, but Dale Earnhardt, Jr. wrecking out at 40% ownership can easily put you in the money if you faded him. Therefore, it’s those strategy plays that I will be focusing on with my “Avoid” list for DraftKings this year. That’s the only way you have a shot at taking home the big $50,000 prize for Sunday’s Daytona 500.
Also check out: DraftKings Drivers to Target in the Daytona 500
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DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Daytona 500
Chase Elliott ($9,000) – Yes, Chase Elliott looked very impressive in his Duel race that he won on Thursday night. No, you should not think that he’s going to have a similar race in the 500 on Sunday. The big event on Sunday is a long one, and Chase Elliott knows that. He won’t be nearly as aggressive as he was on Thursday, which means he won’t stay out front to lead some laps and get bonus FPTS. Now don’t get me wrong, it’s very possible that Chase ends up with a top 10 finish when it’s all said and done on Sunday, but even then he’s going to end up with a mid-20s base FPTS total, and that’s a lot of ground to make up with laps led and fastest laps. It’s a no-brainer not to draft the pole sitter for a restrictor plate race in DraftKings, but it should still be reaffirmed after Elliott’s strong run on Thursday night. He’s not worth the risk or the incredibly high salary.
Matt Kenseth ($8,700) – The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas are all strong enough to go out and take the checkered flag on Sunday, but it’s probably not going to be Matt Kenseth that’s holding the trophy. Back in 2012, when Matt won the Daytona 500, he followed that up with a 3rd-place finish in the July race and was suddenly lauded as an elite plate track driver. The only problem is that he has been nothing but disappointing since. Kenseth is an aggressive driver at Daytona and usually gets out front and leads for part of the race, but he has just one top 10 finish in his last eight starts here. Further, six of his last eight starts he has finished 20th or worse. He’s likely to grab a higher-than-deserved ownership percentage on Sunday (in part due to his JGR car) and you should avoid that mess. He’ll start from 9th in this year’s Great American Race.
Daniel Suarez ($7,700) – There’s three major factors that could cause Daniel Suarez’s ownership to be higher than it should on Sunday. First it the most obvious: he’s in a Joe Gibbs Racing car with an elite team. He’s also moderately priced and can be substituted into most lineups seamlessly. And finally, he’s going to start back in 19th, which opens up the door for some place differential FPTS. While those are all great points, you also have to keep in mind that rookies rarely come out and do great in the Daytona 500. Especially rookies that were suddenly thrust into a Cup ride with a little over a month before the start of the season. This isn’t an “avoid like the plague” designation, but I wouldn’t go too heavy on Suarez in DraftKings this weekend.
Chris Buescher ($6,400) – Can you get much worse than Chris Buescher was on the restrictor plate tracks last season? In those four events, he had an average finish of 34.0 with an average driver rating of 47.3. Both of those statistics were in the bottom four for worst in the series. Daytona was particularly bad for Chris Buescher, as he wound up 39th in the 2016 season-opening Daytona 500 and then dead last (40th) in the July race. Now, at this point, you may be asking why he’s on this Avoid list when it’s so apparent how bad he is at this track type. Well, with a starting spot of 37th and a low-range salary, he’s going to be in a lot of DraftKings lineups on Sunday. I know that even the blind squirrel finds a nut every once in awhile, but it’s going to take a lot of luck for Buescher to have a good showing here on Sunday–and I don’t think there’s any rain in the forecast to help him like at Pocono last season.
Ty Dillon ($6,200) – Ty Dillon is a viable option in quite a few Fantasy NASCAR leagues this weekend, but not DraftKings. He’s going to end up starting 18th for this year’s Great American Race, which is right around his ceiling for where he could finish without some major luck coming into play. This is the younger Dillon brother’s first full season in the Cup series so his goal is just going to be to log as many laps as possible. Ty has raced in the last two Daytona 500s but ended up finishing 25th and 28th after starting 12th and 31st, respectively. He’d be an option in DraftKings if he started 28th instead of 18th, but that’s not the case. There’s plenty of other drivers at or around his salary number with higher FPTS potential on Sunday.
