You should expect to see plenty of “movers” during the Ford EcoBoost 400 on Sunday. The four championship-eligible drivers all qualified 9th or worse, so those drivers should move some of those that qualified up front down in the running order as the race goes on. Also, Homestead-Miami Speedway is a very old, worn out race track, so drivers should have ample opportunities to pass. The fastest way around the track, however, is going to be the high line, right next to the wall (hello Kyle Larson).
The categories we use for different drivers to avoid are as follows: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that will start up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.
“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Homestead Ford EcoBoost 400
Brad Keselowski ($9,500) – The #2 team has had a very rough go of things here over the last couple of months, and we don’t like that kind of bad mojo in the final race of the season–especially when it’s a driver that is starting on the outside pole. With his 14th-place finish at Phoenix last weekend, Keselowski has now ended up 14th or 38th in four of the last five Sprint Cup races overall, with the only exception being that 2nd-place finish at Martinsville. We’re not sure if this #2 team is really testing things out for next season or what, but that kind of risk isn’t something we’re too fond of. Keselowski never really showed the speed during practice to back up his 2nd-place qualifying effort this weekend, but he should still be a top 10 threat on Sunday. However, as far as an option in DraftKings, you should know the rule by now: if he starts up front, he better lead a bunch of laps. We could see Keselowski leading zero this weekend.
Denny Hamlin ($8,600) – We had a hard time putting Denny Hamlin on the avoid list this weekend considering he’s so moderately priced, but chances are he’s only going to put up a low-30s FPTS score on Sunday, so he still won’t really be worth it. This #11 team definitely has the whole qualifying thing figured out, but as far as having that type of speed during the race itself, it’s still limited to the tracks that Denny Hamlin really likes. He’s been good for a top 10 finish at most venues, yes, but as far as taking that next step to a top 5 challenger and potential race winner, Hamlin’s not there yet. As far as the intermediate race tracks are concerned, Denny hasn’t had a top 5 finish on a “cookie cutter” venue since the Charlotte race back in May. That probably won’t change this weekend, especially in a race where the “Championship Four” should overtake most of the top positions by the end of the day.
A.J. Allmendinger ($7,200) – Allmendinger was looking like a solid sleeper option this weekend until he went out and qualified 12th on Friday. That’s about the ceiling for him finish-wise as well, so while it is possible for A.J. to go out there and post a 30-point FPTS day on Sunday, it’s much more likely for him to wind up in the low-20s FPTS level when the checkered flag waves over this year’s Ford EcoBoost 400. The positive news for Allmendinger fans is that this #47 team has been running better than normal on the intermediate tracks as of late, and don’t forget that A.J. finished between 5th and 15th in each of his first four starts here at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Speed-wise, the #47 Chevrolet is probably fast enough to legitimately challenge for a 13th-to-15th-place finish on Sunday.
“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Homestead Ford EcoBoost 400
Alex Bowman ($7,400) – Alex Bowman should come back down to Earth in a big way this weekend. After leading the most laps and almost winning the race at Phoenix this weekend, Bowman looks like a top 20 car at best here at Homestead-Miami Speedway one week later. That’s not to say that he can’t make his way to a top 15 finish on Sunday, though; Bowman was 18th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday morning and then wound up 17th-best on the ten-lap average chart during Happy Hour. The #88 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 19th when this finale gets going on Sunday but could end up with a mid-30s FPTS day. This isn’t an “avoid like the plague” designation, we just think that Bowman is over-valued this weekend–and his ownership percentage will probably be a bit higher thanks to his performance at Phoenix last weekend.
Jamie McMurray ($8,000) – We like Jamie McMurray in other Fantasy NASCAR leagues this weekend, but as far as spending $8,000 on him in DraftKings? No thanks. The #1 Chevrolet will start from 15th when the Ford EcoBoost 400 goes green, and that’s about where we expect him to finish as well. In the last two races here at Homestead, McMurray has finished 13th and 5th, so there’s some potential there, but we didn’t see that kind of speed out of the #1 Chevrolet during practice on Saturday. Momentum-wise, McMurray has finished 19th or w0rse in three of the last five Sprint Cup races overall.
