If recent trends at Phoenix International Raceway remain true this weekend, there are only going to be a few “movers” on Sunday. That also means that there are also only going to be a few “losers,” or drivers that qualified too high and will probably move back throughout the race. Track position actually means a lot at this a unique, 1-mile race track, and the race is short enough (312 miles) that one mistake by a driver or pit crew could easily ruin their entire day–and for some, their Sprint Cup championship hopes.
The categories we use for different drivers to avoid are as follows: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that will start up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.
“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Phoenix 2 Can-Am 500(k)
Austin Dillon ($8,200) – Austin Dillon ended up being an absolutely terrible pick at Texas 2 last weekend thanks to his dust up with Kevin Harvick, but we can’t forget that before that happened he looked like a legitimate top 5 threat. Still, it’s just the finishes that matter in Fantasy NASCAR. This weekend, Austin Dillon will roll off the grid in the row right behind Kevin Harvick, as the #3 Chevrolet wound up 7th in qualifying. Austin did post a career-best finish of 9th here back in March–and we think he may be able to replicate that this weekend–but that doesn’t make him a good option in DraftKings. The chances of Dillon getting up there and leading a handful of laps are slim to none, and his salary is too high to justify a 30 FPTS score. It’d be wise to stay away from Austin Dillon in DraftKings once again this weekend.
Alex Bowman ($6,900) – This weekend, Alex Bowman is actually priced low enough that he might be a viable option in DraftKings. However, that’s contingent on one thing: him leading 30+ laps. We’re not saying it’s impossible–he had the best ten-lap average in Happy Hour–but it’s far from a guarantee. And if the beginning of this race plays out like we think it might, Bowman might only lead one or two laps before giving it up to Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, or Joey Logano. If that happens, it would take an out-of-this-world effort for Bowman to be a good option in DraftKings, as even a 10th-place run would only net owners 25 base FPTS. He’s a great option in a lot of other Fantasy NASCAR leagues but not DraftKings.
Jamie McMurray ($7,900) – Typically Jamie McMurray is a very solid Fantasy NASCAR pick here at Phoenix, and the same holds true this weekend. However, he qualified 9th for Sunday’s Can-Am 500(k), so that really limits his viability in DraftKings. With that being said, we probably wouldn’t have the “avoid” label on Jamie Mac if his practice times were a little better in Happy Hour. In that session, the #1 Chevrolet wound up 19th-fastest on the overall speed chart and 14th in ten-lap average. One positive note, however: McMurray was 3rd-fastest in Practice #2 with the 9th-best ten-lap average. Still, he has just two top 10 finishes on the “new” Phoenix race track, and that’s over the course of ten races.
“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Phoenix 2 Can-Am 500(k)
Denny Hamlin ($9,900) – If you’re going to allocate this much of your cap money to one driver, they better put up a huge score by leading a bunch of laps. And that’s especially true if you’re going to allocate this much of your cap money to a driver that starts near the front. Denny Hamlin qualified 5th for Sunday’s Can-Am 500(k), and while we do see him as a solid top 5 threat this weekend, we don’t see Hamlin going out there and leading many laps. Right off the bat, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Chase Elliott all probably have better race cars than Denny Hamlin, so he would need all of those guys to have problems in order to inherit the lead…and that’s not going to happen. We’d be surprised if Hamlin scored more than 50 FPTS this weekend.
Carl Edwards ($9,100) – Cousin Carl was the best point-for-dollar driver at Texas last weekend (as we predicted), but that’s not the case this weekend at Phoenix. This #19 team really has nothing to race for in the Can-Am 500(k) on Sunday, and even if they did, they don’t have near as good of car as they had here back in March (where Edwards finished 2nd). In Carl’s three starts before that here at Phoenix, he finished between 12th and 15th in all three of them, and that’s the same kind of run we’re expecting out of him on Sunday, too. Edwards was just 20th-fastest in Practice #2 on Saturday and then jumped up to 15th on the Happy Hour speed chart with the 19th-best ten-lap average. You won’t find him on any of our DraftKings lineups this weekend.
Kyle Larson ($8,900) – Try not to get too caught up in Kyle Larson’s practice speeds this weekend. He’s the king of practicing much better than he races, so if you’re thinking about taking a shot with him and hoping he leads a bunch of laps on Sunday, we’ll tell you right now that it’s probably not going to happen. Now, that isn’t to say that Kyle Larson is going to have a bad race in the desert. He’s finished between 10th and 13th in three of his last four races at this track and might be able to pull off a career-best finish here on Sunday. However, the fact that Larson qualified 2nd for the 2016 Can-Am 500(k) severely limits his viability in DraftKings. He was inside the top 5 on both ten-lap average charts during the practice sessions on Saturday, but, as we said before, Larson’s practice times tend to be inflated. For what it’s worth, he hasn’t led a lap in any of the Chase races thus far.
