Sunday afternoon’s Can-Am 500(k) at Phoenix International Raceway is a relatively short race, as we’re only scheduled to run 312 total laps. That means there’s 156 FPTS up for grabs for fastest laps and 78 FPTS available for laps led, so that allows for place differential to be a little more important this weekend. However, we rarely see drivers finish up front at Phoenix unless they start up there. There are a few drivers that didn’t do so well in qualifying this weekend, though, so there’s actually quite a few options on that front. As far as dominator potential, there’s only three or four cars that could lead a bunch of laps on Sunday.
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Phoenix 2 (over $9,500)
Kevin Harvick ($10,600) – This guy is going to be on a lot of lineups this weekend, but he’s really too good to pass up here at Phoenix. Over the last five races in the desert, Harvick has led a total of 994 laps, posted four victories, and has had an average driver rating of 147.0. That kind of domination simply doesn’t happen in NASCAR these days, but Harvick at Phoenix is kind of the exception. Now, one of these times, someone is finally going to de-throne the #4 team at this track, but until then, you simply can’t go against Kevin Harvick–especially when he needs a win to keep his championship hopes alive. The #4 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 6th when Sunday’s Can-Am 500(k) goes green on Sunday and should be able to fight for the lead before the first round of green flag pit stops.
Joey Logano ($10,200) – If anyone not named Kevin Harvick is going to win this race on Sunday, it’s probably going to be Joey Logano. The #22 Ford has had consistent speed all weekend long, and it might actually be better than the #4 Chevrolet heading into Sunday. Logano will start from 4th in this year’s Can-Am 500(k), and you know he’s going to be trying his hardest to get out front as soon as possible and get that coveted bonus point. As far as Joey’s record here at Phoenix, he’s never been to victory lane in the desert but he has finished 9th or better in five of the last six races here, including a career-best 3rd-place finish in this race one year ago. And if Logano is going to make it to Homestead, he’s going to need another career run here on Sunday.
Martin Truex, Jr. ($9,800) – Don’t be surprised if Martin Truex, Jr. is the most-owned driver in DraftKings this weekend. That gives you an excellent opportunity to fade him and hope that he has troubles, but we just don’t see that happening. Martin nailed the wall in Practice #1 and had to get the backup car. However, the #78 team wasn’t able to get through inspection in time, so Truex will have to start in the rear end of the field. This means that even a run up to 20th is going to equal 44 FPTS from him, but we expect Truex to finish much better than that. If he would have qualified near the front, we’d probably be talking about him as a potential race winner. Truex’s ten-lap average ranked inside the top 5 in both practice sessions this weekend, and he should definitely be a top 10 threat on Sunday despite starting so far back.
Mid-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Phoenix 2 (between $7,500 and $9,500)
Chase Elliott ($8,700) – Many people are going to be targeting Kyle Larson ($8,900) in this price range, but Chase Elliott is the more reliable option, and might have a better car, too. Larson tends to have great short run speed but fizzle out on the long runs while Chase Elliott is usually very good all around. That’s just an overall generalization from what we’ve seen this season, though.In Practice #2 on Saturday, the #24 Chevrolet ranked 2nd on the ten-lap average chart, and then during Happy Hour, it was 3rd-best on the long runs. When we last raced here back in March, Chase wound up finishing 8th after starting back in 17th. This time around he’s going to start from 3rd, so in order for it to work out for DraftKings owners, Elliott is going to have to lead some laps on Sunday. He definitely has the car to get that done.
Kurt Busch ($8,400) – Last week it was Carl Edwards that was wildly under-priced, and this weekend it’s Kurt Busch. Currently, the elder Busch brother is on a four-race streak of top 10 finishes here at Phoenix, and the #41 Chevrolet is fast enough to finish up there this weekend as well. In Happy Hour on Saturday, Kurt was just 20th on the ten-lap average chart, but don’t overlook the fact that he made that run later on in the session. Among those who made later runs, only Denny Hamlin was faster on that chart. In this round of the Chase, Kurt Busch couldn’t get much worse, so he’s going to have to throw a Hail Mary here on Sunday if he wants to advance on to Homestead. That could be very good for DraftKings owners if a potential gamble works out for the #41 team on Sunday.
Ryan Newman ($7,800) – With the way this #31 team is running right now, Ryan Newman could easily post another top 10 finish this weekend. Phoenix has been a pretty good track for him as of late, with “The Rocketman” posting five finishes of 11th or better in the last six events here. On Sunday, Newman will start from 15th, but with the speed he showed during the practice sessions on Saturday, he should be able to improve on that a little bit; in Practice #2, Newman ranked 12th when it came to ten-lap average, and than in Happy Hour he was 6th-fastest on that chart. We’re expecting a mid-30s FPTS day out of Ryan Newman on Sunday.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Phoenix 2 (under $7,500)
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($7,300) – We really wish that Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. wouldn’t have qualified as high as he did this weekend (21st) but we can still work with that. Phoenix has actually been one of Stenhouse’s best tracks on the Sprint Cup circuit despite his recent struggles here. In the last two races, the #17 team hasn’t had the best of luck, but in Ricky’s first five career starts here he finished between 12th and 18th in all of them. This weekend, Stenhouse didn’t look overly impressive on the ten-lap average charts, but he was 17th- and 16th-fastest in the two practices overall, so don’t be surprised if Ricky winds up between 16th and 19th on Sunday, which would equal ~30 FPTS in DraftKings.
Aric Almirola ($6,700) – The #43 team has actually turned things up a notch as of late, as Almirola has ended up 17th or better in six of the last nine Sprint Cup races overall. And if he can pull off another finish inside that mark this weekend, DraftKings owners are looking at a 35+ FPTS day out of Almirola after he qualified 27th for this year’s Can-Am 500(k). Almirola’s record here at Phoenix is actually pretty impressive, too, as he hasn’t finished worse than 19th in the desert since the 2010 season, and he posted a career-best result of 10th in this race one year ago. The #43 Ford wasn’t overly impressive in Happy Hour on Saturday, but in Practice #2, Almirola was 15th on the overall speed chart and ranked 17th in ten-lap average.
