The races at Texas Motor Speedway are pretty similar to other intermediate track events, especially when it comes to the drivers you want to avoid in DraftKings. As usual, you’re going to want to stay away from the guys that qualified up front and don’t have dominator potential, as well as those that have struggled at similar tracks this season. The drivers that qualified in that borderline 15th through 25th range are going to be the ones where it’ll get interesting. Typically the races here at Texas don’t see an incredible amount of passing, but it’s not impossible. When we were last here (in April), the drivers who started 1st through 4th all ended up inside the top 7.
The categories we use for different drivers to avoid are as follows: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that will start up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.
“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Texas 2 AAA 500
Austin Dillon ($7,900) – This shouldn’t be too surprising. If you’re going to start up front at an intermediate race track, you’re going to lead a bunch of laps in order to be a viable option in DraftKings. And leading laps isn’t exactly something that Austin Dillon is accustomed to; this is his third full Sprint Cup season and so far he has only led a total of 60 laps. Some drivers lead that many laps in one race. With that being said, the #3 Chevrolet does look like it has quite a bit of speed in it this weekend, but you can’t really expect much more than a top 10 out of Austin on Sunday, and in order for him to be a decent option in DraftKings with a 10th-place finish, the #3 Chevrolet is going to have to post about 40 laps led/fastest laps, and we just don’t see that happening.
Paul Menard ($6,600) – If a race came down to laying down a single fast lap, Paul Menard would have a lot more Sprint Cup wins than he currently has. The same goes with Kyle Larson. However, the races here at Texas usually have quite a lot of green flag laps, and that means you need a race car that maintains speed over the course of a run (and when the tires wear out). Driving on worn-out tires isn’t exactly Paul Menard’s strong suit. The #27 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 6th when the AAA Texas 500 goes green on Sunday, but you can’t reasonably expect Paul Menard to run up there over the course of the day. He has just one top 10 finish in the last ten races here at Texas, and that was a 9th-place finish in the April 2014 race. We’re expecting a finish of around 20th for Menard on Sunday, and that’s only going to net owners 10 base FPTS in DraftKings.
Kyle Larson ($9,100) – Kyle Larson is always an intriguing option at intermediate track races that have a nice, high racing line to use, but more often than not it doesn’t work out. For Sunday’s AAA Texas 500, Larson qualified 5th, which means he’s going to need to lead quite a few laps in order for it to be worth the risk in rostering him on DraftKings. Do we think it’s possible that a gamble on Larson pays off? Sure. Is it likely? No. Larson also started 5th in this race one year ago but finished back in 37th, and that makes it four results of 14th or worse in six career Sprint Cup starts at Texas for him. He’s also never led a single lap here, nor has he led a single lap since the Chase started. Don’t get caught up in the potential that Kyle Larson has on a weekly basis, he’s not worth the risk this weekend. He also should have a decently high ownership percentage.
“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Texas 2 AAA 500
Denny Hamlin ($8,800) – We think that fading Denny Hamlin is going to be the best move in DraftKings this weekend. He should be pretty highly owned in the game, and when you look at his 17th-place starting spot for Sunday’s AAA Texas 500, it probably wouldn’t be a terrible idea to have him in your lineup. However, we can think of a few reasons. First of all, the #11 Toyota was absolutely terrible during the first practice session on Saturday, and any time you’re “wrecking loose” during practice, just imagine how much worse that’s going to get during the actual race and a long green flag run. We wouldn’t be surprised if Hamlin spun at some point on Sunday. The other reason we’re not terribly high on Denny Hamlin this weekend is the fact that he hasn’t finished better than 10th at Texas since the 2013 season, and he hasn’t had a top 5 since 2010. Hamlin might struggle to get to the top 10 this weekend.
A.J. Allmendinger ($7,600) – A.J. Allmendinger is now solidly in the mid-$7,000 price range and because of that he’s not really a viable option in DraftKings this weekend. Not only that, but he qualified 14th for Sunday’s AAA Texas 500. He might be worth the price if he started back in the mid-20s. The Dinger does have some fantasy value this weekend, though, as he has ended up 17th and 14th in the last two November races here at Martinsville, but we’re looking at 24 and 30 base FPTS if he would finish in either of those spots this weekend. It’d be a very good race out of this #47 team if they finished 15th, so there’s really no need to even consider Allmendinger in DraftKings this weekend.
Matt Kenseth ($9,800) – This isn’t an “avoid like the plague” designation, but as far as DraftKings goes, we don’t see any situation where Matt Kenseth is going to be worth the $9,800 price tag on Sunday. He has a pretty good car, yes, but the #20 Toyota isn’t one of those cars that can go out there and dominate the race. We honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Kenseth didn’t lead a single lap on Sunday. He should be a solid top 10 car, but probably not a top 5 threat unless a few crazy things happen during the race. Therefore, we’re looking at a base FPTS score of around 40 in DraftKings, and that’s just not worth it at this high price–especially when you have guys like Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski right below that. Kenseth’s best finish in his last four starts here at Texas has been 7th.
“Flat-Out Avoid” DraftKings Driver for the Texas 2 AAA 500
Ryan Blaney ($7,500) – Usually with rookies you don’t really have much of a statistical past to look at for a race. However, Sunday will mark Ryan Blaney’s fourth career Sprint Cup start here at Texas Motor Speedway, and we’re willing to bet that he posts a career-best finish. But that’s not really saying much. Blaney hasn’t been able to finish better than 29th here at Texas, and that includes the race here back in April when he qualified 7th. He will start from 8th when this weekend’s AAA Texas 500 goes green, and while the #21 Ford did look quite speedy during the two practice sessions on Saturday, we’re not falling for it. Honestly, we don’t think this type of race track really suits Blaney’s driving style. He finished 25th in the Atlanta race earlier this year, which is the track most similar to Texas. You won’t find Ryan Blaney on any of our Fantasy NASCAR rosters this weekend.
