If this Sunday’s Hellmann’s 500 at Talladega Superspeedway turns out as expected, the best strategy in DraftKings is going to be to target place differential FPTS. Anybody, and we mean anybody, can finish up front in these restrictor plate races, and often times there will be a whole lot of different lap leaders throughout the race, and not one dominator. As far as fastest lap FPTS, those will be even more spread out than laps led FPTS. Because of all of the different possible driver combinations this weekend, there’s quite a few drivers that would be good to target. Therefore, we’re going to only look at two in each price tier (three with the mid-dollar drivers), as we could make an argument for just about any driver in the field.
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Talladega 2 (over $9,500)
Brad Keselowski ($10,500) – Drafting Brad Keselowski is going to bring with it a whole lot of risk this weekend (because he starts 2nd), but at the same time, if one driver is going to dominate this race on Sunday, it’s going to be Keselowski. He’s not in a must-win situation to advance in the Chase, but it’s close, so you know that Brad is going to be doing anything he can to get to victory lane on Sunday. It helps that the #2 Ford was very fast during qualifying on Saturday, and don’t forget that Keselowski went to victory lane here at Talladega the last time we were here. That was actually his fourth career win at this track, and he’s now second to just Dale Earnhardt, Jr. for the most wins here. Keselowski has the 3rd-best average finish on plate tracks this season (7.3) along with the best average driver rating (112.9). As we said, this is a very risky pick, but we really think Brad Keselowski is going to be the highest scoring driver in DraftKings this weekend.
Kyle Busch ($10,100) – Kyle Busch has a pretty good points advantage in the Chase standings heading into Sunday, but don’t assume that that automatically means he’s going to be points racing in the Hellmann’s 500. This is still Kyle Busch we’re talking about, and don’t forget that he was “points racing” at Dover in the last round and almost went out and won the race. Rowdy has a near-perfect average finish of 2.3 on the restrictor plate tracks this season, which is even more impressive when you consider the fact that he hasn’t won any of them. Here at Talladega, he has finished 12th or better in four of the last five races and has posted a top 5 in four of the last eight. Busch qualified 14th for this weekend’s race so there’s room for place differential in addition to the high finish points he should also accumulate.
Mid-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Talladega 2 (between $7,000 and $9,500)
Joey Logano ($9,500) – This #22 team is fighting for their Chase life this weekend, and they’re going to have some work to do after qualifying 16th for Sunday’s Hellmann’s 500. However, with his teammate being Brad Keselowski, we have a feeling that Joey will have a car that is plenty good enough to get to the front. Logano went to victory lane in this race last season and hasn’t finished worse than 16th in the fall race here in the last three years. We don’t expect that to change this weekend. As far as the three restrictor plate races this season, Logano has averaged a finish of 11.7 (which is 4th-best in the series) with an average driver rating of 97.3 (also 4th-best).
Ryan Newman ($7,800) – Ryan Newman used to be the automatic “avoid” pick whenever there was a restrictor plate race, but lately he has really turned things around and has actually been a pretty solid pick. Over the last eight races here at Talladega Superspeedway, Newman has ended up 12th or better in five of them, and four of those were also top 10 finishes for “The Rocketman.” This weekend, Newman is relatively low priced for the potential value that he will have on race day, and he qualified 20th for the Hellmann’s 500, so there’s some room for place differential FPTS there. A lot of people are probably going to skip over Newman this weekend, so that gives you a chance to capitalize on those points if he has a very good race on Sunday.
Clint Bowyer ($7,400) – Clint Bowyer scored a whole bunch of FPTS in the last race here at Talladega, and don’t be surprised if he puts up another 40+ FPTS week on Sunday. Bowyer qualified 36th for Sunday’s Hellmann’s 500, but if you know anything about the races at this track, you know that starting position means nothing. Overall, Clint Bowyer has twelve top 10s in twenty-one career starts here at Talladega (57.1%), six of which were also top 5s (28.6%). In the last six events here, however, Bowyer has finished inside the top 10 in five of them. We know that it’s impossible to trust Clint and this #15 Chevrolet because of the chance for mechanical issues, but don’t forget that this team has found quite a bit of speed as of late, and we’re going into Clint Bowyer’s best track on the circuit. He should be worth every penny in DraftKings this weekend.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Talladega 2 ($7,000 and under)
Michael McDowell ($6,400) – Michael McDowell took a huge price hike this weekend, but it’s actually justified: he’s been damn good in the restrictor plate races this season. In the season-opening Daytona 500, McDowell finished 15th after starting 39th (+24 place differential), and then at the first Talladega race he started 31st and finished 21st (+10). When we went back to Daytona in July, McDowell wound up 10th after starting 37th (+27). Now obviously it’s hard to expect a top 20 finish out of a guy like Michael McDowell on Sunday, but at the same time, it’s often times best to go with the hot hand on these plate tracks. Additionally, McDowell has been running well over the last six Sprint Cup races overall, with an average finish of 22.2 in those events. He qualified 34th for Sunday’s Hellmann’s 500 and is probably the best low-dollar driver option in DraftKings this weekend.
A.J. Allmendinger ($7,000) – A.J. Allmendinger is another relatively low-dollar option who has performed well on the restrictor plate tracks this season. He finished 21st in the season-opening Daytona 500 after starting 30th (+9 place differential), and then wound up 13th after starting 26th in the second Daytona race of the season (+13). In the first race here at Talladega this season, Allmendinger started 28th and finished 14th (+14). This weekend, the #47 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 32nd when the race goes green on Sunday, but he should end up much better than that: Allmendinger has finished 17th or better in three of the last five Talladega races, including a career-best 5th here back in 2014.
