These restrictor plate races here at Talladega (and at Daytona) are some of the most frustrating for all Fantasy NASCAR players, simply because you can go from having a very good week to having a terrible week in one second. Now obviously the opposite could also happen, but we’ve never really experienced that (ha!). Anyway, from a DraftKings perspective, it’s best to stay away from all of the drivers that start up front, simply because of the whole place differential thing. This weekend there are a few very good Fantasy NASCAR picks that will go against that rule, but it should still mostly be followed, in our opinion. We’re not using our usual categories for drivers to avoid in DraftKings this weekend, but those will be back next week with the Martinsville 2 race.
DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Talladega 2 Hellmann’s 500
Carl Edwards ($9,300) – Despite being in a good position in the points race heading into Sunday’s Hellmann’s 500, don’t be surprised if he is on the bubble at some point during this weekend’s race. In the three restrictor plate races this season, Carl Edwards has averaged a finish of just 21.7, and in the last five races here at Talladega specifically, he has just one result better than 21st. The good news for Edwards fans is that that finish came in this race one year ago, where Carl ended up 5th, but that’s one of just six top 10s he has here in twenty-four career starts (25%). The #19 Toyota will start from 13th when this weekend’s race goes green, but we honestly think it’s going to be a little difficult for Carl to improve on that, and at $9,300 in DraftKings, he won’t end up being a very good driver on Sunday.
Denny Hamlin ($9,200) – After winning here at Talladega back in 2014, Denny Hamlin finally broke through over at Daytona with his win in this year’s Great American Race. He then followed that up with a 31st-place finish in the first race here at Talladega back in May, and then the #11 Toyota wound up 17th in the second race at Daytona in July. But that’s not the reason we’re telling you to avoid Hamlin this weekend. Because actually, he ran pretty well in those races, and in the three restrictor plate events this season, Hamlin’s average driver rating has been 100.2 (3rd-best in the series). No, this “avoid” designation is actually us telling you to fade Denny Hamlin on Sunday, because he’s probably going to be on quite a few teams. The thing is, this team and driver have not proven to be clutch yet, and that’s what they’re going to need to be on Sunday if they want to advance in the Chase. Hamlin also starts 8th in this weekend’s Hellmann’s 500, which is a little higher than we’d like. Additionally, he’s started 8th in the last two Talladega races as well, but ended up finishing 31st and 37th in those two races (not that that means anything, it’s just a statistic).
Chase Elliott ($8,800) – We don’t know about you, but a rookie that has been having problems finishing races, who is also starting 4th in Sunday’s restrictor plate race doesn’t quite seem like the best option in DraftKings. Yes, Chase Elliott did have that nice 5th-place finish here back in May after starting on the pole, but let’s not forget that he started on the pole for this year’s Daytona 500 and ended up finishing 37th, and then Chase went on to finish 32nd in the second race at Daytona back in July. So while it is very possible that the #24 Chevrolet will get up there and lead a handful of laps during Sunday’s Hellmann’s 500, it’s nowhere near a guarantee, nor is it likely that Elliott also finishes up there. He might be worth a shot if he was in the mid-$7,000 range, but that’s not the case. Chances are it’s going to be best to avoid Chase Elliott this weekend.
Matt Kenseth ($9,000) – We’re sticking with the Joe Gibbs Racing guys as those to avoid this weekend, there’s no way this could backfire (sarcasm). Anyway, Matt Kenseth is a streaky driver at these restrictor plate race tracks, and right now he’s not doing so well. In the three races at Daytona and Talladega this season, Kenseth has averaged a finish of 21.7, and in the last six races specifically here at Talladega, he has just one finish better than 20th. When you pair that with the fact that the #20 Toyota will roll off the grid from 3rd when we go green on Sunday, it’s going to take a lot for Kenseth to be a good pick in DraftKings. Specifically, he will need to lead a lot of laps in order to mitigate the risk of negative place differential points, and we just don’t see him leading a whole lot considering Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex, Jr. are already starting up front.
Kyle Larson ($8,600) – Larson struggled on the restrictor plate tracks initially, but he seems to have figured out Daytona a little bit, as Kyle finished 7th and 6th in the two races there this season. As far as Talladega goes, though, he hasn’t quite gotten the hang of it yet. And you may be thinking that because they’re restrictor plate tracks that there’s really no difference, but that’s not the case at all. Larson did finish 9th here at Talladega back in 2014 but hasn’t mustered a result better than 17th in the four races that he has ran here since then. A lot of DraftKings players are probably going to target Kyle Larson this weekend due to his 24th-place starting spot, but we don’t think it’s going to work out for those people. We’ve been wrong before, though.
Chris Buescher ($6,000) – Chris qualified back in 33rd for this Sunday’s Hellmann’s 500, but don’t fall for the trap: he’s been absolutely atrocious on the restrictor plate race tracks in 2016. It started with his 39th-place finish in the season-opening Daytona 500, and then Buescher followed that up with a 37th-place result here at Talladega back in May. Then when we went back to Daytona in July, the #34 Ford wound up dead last. So, yeah, not good. We firmly believe that the drivers that have performed the best on the plate tracks this season are the ones to target this weekend, and the same goes with avoiding the ones that have performed the worse. Average finish-wise, nobody has been worse than Chris Buescher. There’s plenty of other low-dollar options in DraftKings this weekend that should score more points than him.
