For the second week in a row, rain has played a major role in the NASCAR race weekend. Weather from Hurricane Matthew hit Charlotte Motor Speedway on Friday morning and because of that, NASCAR cancelled all on-track activity that day. Unfortunately for us, that means that the two scheduled Sprint Cup practice sessions did not happen. They did, however, get qualifying in on Thursday, as well as one practice session before that. With that being said, we’re still going to have to lean quite heavily on historical data for Saturday night’s Bank of America 500 when building our DraftKings lineups.
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Charlotte 2 (over $9,500)
Kevin Harvick ($10,700) – Chances are the dominator of this race is either going to be Kevin Harvick or Martin Truex, Jr. The former starts on the pole while the latter will roll off the grid from 7th. And while there are some potential place differential points with Truex, we still think the smarter option this weekend is going to be Kevin Harvick. This #4 team isn’t known for their qualifying efforts, and while this will technically be Harvick’s fifth time starting from 1st this season, it is his first actual pole. That tells us that he has a very strong race car and should lead a whole bunch of laps. Harvick is a three-time winner here at Charlotte Motor Speedway and has finished 1st or 2nd in five of the last seven events here. Unless he has another mechanical issue like last week (that killed us, too) Harvick will be a great pick this weekend.
Brad Keselowski ($9,800) – Brad Keselowski comes in at $9,800 this week, which is pretty cheap when you consider the fact that the guy has an average finish of 4.8 over the last six Sprint Cup races overall, as well as seven top 5 results over the last nine. Yeah, it kind of surprised us too, but Keselowski isn’t out there leading a bunch of laps so not many people are paying attention. Here at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Brad has just three top 5s in fourteen career starts (21.4%) but one of those was a win and another came in this year’s Coca-Cola 600 back in May. Currently, Keselowski is on a three-race top 10 finish streak at this track and has ended up inside that mark in five of the last six Charlotte events. He qualified back in 20th for this weekend’s Bank of America 500 but should finish much better than that. Place differential-wise, there probably isn’t a better option than Brad Keselowski this week.
Matt Kenseth ($9,700) – Don’t be worried about the fact that Matt Kenseth qualified 17th this weekend: he tends to start pretty far back at Charlotte. In the last six races here, Kenseth has had a starting spot of 20th or worse in three of those events, but the good news is that he ended up finishing 7th and 3rd in two of those races. And while he hasn’t quite been a guaranteed pick here lately–Kenseth has finished 42nd and 19th in the last two Bank of America 500s–we think that he’s going to be just fine here on Saturday night (or Sunday). This #20 team didn’t finish worse than 9th in the first round of the Chase and that momentum should continue here in the second round as well. Look for Matt Kenseth to be at least top 10 good in this weekend’s race, and as long as that happens he can be counted on for 40+ FPTS in DraftKings.
Mid-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Charlotte 2 (between $7,500 and $9,500)
Denny Hamlin ($9,300) – Denny Hamlin loves Charlotte Motor Speedway, and although this #11 team didn’t quite have top 5 speed in the first round of the Chase, we think they’re going to turn things up a notch now that we’re down to 12 championship contenders. Hamlin has finished 4th in each of the last two races here at Charlotte, and in the last twelve events here he has ended up inside the top 10 in eleven of them. Six of those eleven were also top 5s. Surprisingly enough, Denny has never gotten to victory lane here, but his career average finish of 12.4 here is 3rd-best among all active drivers. The #11 Toyota ranked 3rd in ten-lap average during the only practice session of the weekend and Hamlin qualified 9th for Saturday night’s race, so there’s some room for place differential FPTS as well.
Kurt Busch ($8,700) – There’s so many things to like about Kurt Busch this weekend that we actually consider him a building block for the Bank of America 500. This #41 Chevrolet has been one of the best performers on the 1.5-mile race tracks this season and Kurt has finished 6th and 5th in the last two races ran here at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Additionally, he has finished 11th or better in each of the last four races at this track as well as 14th or better in six of the last seven. The reason Busch has such high potential this weekend is his starting spot: 23rd. Yes, that’s going to be a hurdle for Kurt to get over whenever the Bank of America 500 goes green, but this is a long race so he has plenty of time. The #41 Chevrolet should be good for at least a top 15 finish this weekend, and with that we’re looking at a 37+ FPTS performance from Kurt Busch.
Austin Dillon ($8,200) – Statistically, Charlotte Motor Speedway is Austin Dillon’s 2nd-best track on the Sprint Cup circuit despite the fact that he has just one top 10 finish in five career starts here (20%). However, Austin has never ended up worse than 16th here, so that helps. This weekend, the #3 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from the 19th-place starting spot, and as long as Dillon can muster his typical top 12 finish here on Saturday night (or Sunday), we’re looking at around a 40+ FPTS week out of him. This #3 team have been one of the most consistent top 15 finishers in the Sprint Cup Series this season and on 1.5-mile race tracks as well. Also, this is around the time where we really see the “Chase Effect” come into play, so you can expect all of the Chasers to run well from here on out. We would like Austin Dillon a lot more if his price was under $8,000 this week, but he’s still a viable option depending on how you build your lineup.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Charlotte 2 (under $7,500)
Ryan Newman ($7,400) – Ryan Newman is starting to get into that price range where it might be worth giving him a look depending on how your roster is structured. He qualified 21st for this weekend’s Bank of America 500, and while that would have made Newman an excellent DraftKings driver the last couple of seasons, this #31 team has fallen off quite a bit from that near-championship win in 2014. Still, “The Rocketman” is a relatively safe Fantasy NASCAR pick this weekend and should be good for at least a top 20 finish. In twenty-one career starts at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Newman has posted thirteen top 10 finishes (61.9%) and he hasn’t ended up worse than 15th in the last seven events here. We’re not expecting a huge race out of the #31 team this weekend but Newman is one of the safer options in this price range.
Clint Bowyer ($7,100) – One of the most consistent performers in DraftKings lately has been Clint Bowyer and don’t be surprised if that trend continues here at Charlotte Motor Speedway in the Bank of America 500. Clint wound up finishing 23rd back in this year’s Coca-Cola 600 here at Charlotte and a similar run for this #15 team is well within reach. With his 24th-place run at Dover 2 last weekend, Bowyer has now finished between 22nd and 24th in each of the last five Sprint Cup races overall, and while that may not sound that great, that kind of finish again this weekend would make him a viable DraftKings option thanks to his 31st-place qualifying effort. Bowyer has always been pretty decent here at Charlotte and even got to victory in this race back in 2012.
Aric Almirola ($6,400) – There is quite a bit of risk in putting Aric Almirola in your lineup this weekend but at the same time there is a bunch of upside. This #43 team is in full-out test mode to get ready for the 2017 season, but it’s kind of working out for them lately; over the last four Sprint Cup races overall, Almirola has finished 17th or better in three of those events. He has been a mid-20s driver at most of the intermediate race tracks this season, but considering he starts back in 33rd for the Bank of America 500, that wouldn’t necessarily be terrible: a 25th-place finish from Almirola on Saturday night (or Sunday) would net owners 27 FPTS. As far as his record here at Charlotte, Aric hasn’t ended up worse than 26th in the last six races here and he posted a career-best finish of 10th in this race one year ago.
