Thanks to Hurricane Matthew, most of the race weekend has been washed out–and it’s not looking good for the Saturday night race either–although the Sprint Cup Series was able to get one practice session in on Thursday as well as qualifying. Therefore, there are quite a few drivers that had good speed in qualifying that won’t be good DraftKings picks for the actual race, so that’s some good news. The bad news is that they’re all pretty low-dollar drivers so it’s going to be harder to put together a complete lineup. We don’t have much “real” practice data to go off of thanks to the rain, so we’re looking mainly at previous performance here at Charlotte as well as recent results in terms of who to pick and who to avoid this weekend.
The categories we use for different drivers to avoid are as follows: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that will start up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.
“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Charlotte 2 Bank of America 500
Alex Bowman ($8,000) – In addition to being very over-priced, Alex Bowman qualified 2nd for this weekend’s Bank of America 500 and we can almost guarantee you that he’s not going to finish up there. We do have Bowman in some of our other Fantasy NASCAR leagues this weekend–like FOX Fantasy Auto, you can see our picks here–but none that take away points for place differential. We saw back at Chicagoland (another 1.5-mile track) that Bowman can run top 10 in the #88 Chevrolet, but unfortunately that’s not going to be good enough for him this weekend. Even if he winds up finishing 10th on Saturday night, that’s only going to be 26 base FPTS in DraftKings, and at $8,000, that’s not very good. He’s probably not going to lead any laps, either. There’s literally no situation where Alex Bowman should make your DraftKings lineup this weekend.
Danica Patrick ($6,200) – Danica is usually a shoo-in on DraftKings with her very low salary and usual positive place differential during the race, but that’s not going to be the case this weekend. The #10 Chevrolet ended up 13th in qualifying on Thursday, and while that is a very good effort but his team and driver, Danica immediately became a driver to avoid in DraftKings as soon as it happened. Charlotte hasn’t been too terrible of a track for her lately–she’s finished between 19th and 22nd in each of the last three races here–but a top 20 finish out of Danica isn’t going to cut it this weekend. And that itself is barely a guarantee: she has just one two top 20s in the last ten Sprint Cup races overall. You’d be much better off drafting someone like Aric Almirola in this price range this weekend (see our Charlotte 2 Drivers to Target post to read why).
A.J. Allmendinger ($6,900) – The Dinger was one of our top sleeper picks for this weekend’s race at Charlotte Motor Speedway, and after he qualified 6th on Thursday that just solidified him as an even better sleeper option…in most Fantasy NASCAR games. Unfortunately, DraftKings is not one of those. Allmendinger definitely has top 15 finish potential int he Bank of America 500 this weekend (he has finished 16th or better in three of the last four races here) but we don’t see any way that he could pull of a top 10 on Saturday night, and that’s the kind of finish we would need out of him to even consider The Dinger in DraftKings this weekend. Like Bowman, there’s no reason A.J. should make any of your lineups this weekend.
“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Charlotte 2 Bank of America 500
Kyle Larson ($9,600) – Kyle Larson is going to be on a lot of DraftKings lineups this weekend, and for good reason: he qualified 25th for Saturday night’s Bank of America 500, so even just a top 10 finish out of him would net you 49+ FPTS. Seems like a no-brainer, right? Think again. As we stated in the opener of this article, “over-valued” can occasionally mean an opportunity to fade a certain driver, and that’s exactly what we’re trying to accomplish here. This #42 team is back in a slump of sorts, with a best finish of 10th in the opening round of the Chase before their elimination at Dover last weekend. And when you focus on this week’s track, Charlotte Motor Speedway, it’s not like Larson has this place totally figured out: he’s made six career Sprint Cup starts here and has just two finishes better than 21st. Not to be hypocritical, but Larson is probably going to be on one or two of our DraftKings lineups this weekend, but when it’s all said and done on Saturday night (or Sunday), we don’t think you’ll see his name on the winning lineup.
Carl Edwards ($9,400) – We have a hard time putting Carl Edwards on any of our Fantasy NASCAR rosters right now, let alone DraftKings, where his salary is in the upper echelon. The thing with Carl Edwards is that despite the fact that he has been a consistent performer this season, he’s in a bit of a rough stretch–at least in terms of the finishes we’ve come to expect from him. This guy hasn’t had a top 5 finish since the Kentucky race in July, and when you consider the fact that he’s in top tier equipment, it’s actually a little surprising. Now, here at Charlotte, Carl has been a pretty solid pick lately, with nine finishes of 11th or better in the last ten races–and we expect something similar this time around as well. However, the fact that he starts 8th removes any reason to put the #19 Toyota in your lineup. Carl Edwards hasn’t led more than 31 laps in any single race since his win at Richmond back in April, and that’s not going to change this weekend. He’s not worth the price tag in DraftKings this weekend.
Kasey Kahne ($8,500) – Kasey Kahne’s salary took a huge jump this week and he now sits right there on the lower border of high-priced drivers (if that makes sense). Although we do think that Kahne has a car that is capable of surprising some people this weekend–don’t forget that he’s a four-time winner at Charlotte–let’s take a step back and look at this as a whole: this price range is typically reserved for drivers that are going to score at least in the upper-40s in FPTS. In order for Kasey Kahne to do that this weekend, he’s going to have to come home with at least a top 5 finish. This #5 Chevrolet has enough speed in it for a top 10, but we’re not so sure about a top 5. He starts 12th, though, so there’s a little room for place differential FPTS. If you can fit Kahne in a lineup somewhere he might be worth a shot, but we haven’t come up with any that make sense.
“Flat-Out Avoid” DraftKings Driver for the Charlotte 2 Bank of America 500
Greg Biffle ($7,200) – DraftKings is hesitant to drop Greg Biffle’s salary, but honestly he deserves to be down in the mid-$6,000 range. At Dover last weekend, this #16 team posted their first top 20 finish in the last five Sprint Cup races overall, and that’s just their third result inside that mark in the last ten. Biffle hasn’t even sniffed the top 10 since the Loudon race back in July and he has a negative place differential in five of the last ten overall races. Look for him to make it six of the last eleven here at Charlotte this weekend. The Biff qualified 14th for Saturday night’s event–which is good, don’t get us wrong. However, this #16 Ford isn’t capable of actually running that well in the race, unless, of course, Biffle plays the pit strategy game like he does almost every week. The #16 team has had good runs in the last two Coca-Cola 600s here at Charlotte but in the last three Bank of America 500s they haven’t finished better than 16th. That won’t change this weekend.
