Dover International Speedway is another 1-mile race track, but it is very different from Loudon, where the Sprint Cup Series was at last weekend. Dover, which is nicknamed “The Monster Mile,” has a bunch of banking in the turns as well as on the straightaways, and it tries its best to race like an intermediate speedway. Sunday’s race is a 400-lap event, so we’re definitely going to need to target some dominators in DraftKings. Track position was very important here last time around, but that doesn’t exactly mean starting position. In fact, over the last five Dover races, just 18% of top 5 qualifiers have finished inside the top 10. However, with qualifying getting rained out on Friday, that means that all of the Chasers are starting up front, so we should see quite a few of those guys stay out front.
The categories we use for different drivers to avoid are as follows: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that will start up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.
“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Dover 2 Citizen Soldier 400
Brad Keselowski ($9,100) – Track position was a major factor the last time we ran at Dover, and nobody is in a better position to start with that on Sunday than Brad Keselowski. However, we’re not confident that the Blue Deuce is going to be able to stay up front for most of the race, and that’s what it’s going to take for Keselowski to be a viable option in DraftKings this weekend. BK does have five top 10 finishes in the last eight races here at “The Monster Mile,” but he’s never led more than 78 laps in one race here and hasn’t finished better than 6th in his last three attempts. We do think that Keselowski has a chance to score another top 5 here on Sunday but we’re just not fully confident that he’s going to be able to make up for the lost place differential FPTS with laps led and fastest laps points. At that low (for him) $9,100 price point, it’s going to be extremely difficult to avoid Keselowski on Sunday, but we think that is the best move to do strategically.
Matt Kenseth ($9,700) – Unfortunately, Matt Kenseth isn’t really a driver that’s goes out and absolutely dominates races. Typically, if he has a race winning car, he winds up near the front about halfway through the event and then works on it from there. So while we do really like Matt Kenseth as an overall Fantasy NASCAR pick this weekend, we don’t see him as a great option in DraftKings this weekend and that’s because he starts from 4th and there are quite a few other drivers that we like to lead laps more than him. So unless Kenseth is able to post a bunch of fastest laps on Sunday, he probably won’t put up a huge FPTS score. Now we’re not telling you to completely avoid the #20 Toyota this weekend, we just wouldn’t build all of our rosters around Kenseth. After all, he won here at Dover back in May and has finished 7th or better in five of the last six races at “The Monster Mile.” As far as DraftKings goes, however, he’s not the best pick strategically.
Chris Buescher ($6,400) – This should have to go without saying but thanks to qualifying getting cancelled this weekend, Chris Buescher is one of the worst DraftKings options this weekend. He did finish 18th when we last raced here (back in May), but even if he is able to replicate that finish on Sunday, we’re still looking at just 26 base FPTS out of him. While that is a decent amount for a driver in this price range, we have a hard time seeing Buescher actually finishing inside the top 20 on Sunday unless this race turns into an attrition event. This #34 team has came back to earth in a major way as of late, with five finishes of 24th or worse in the last seven Sprint Cup races overall. We’d consider Buescher if he started back in 30th this weekend, but unfortunately that’s not the case.
“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Dover 2 Citizen Soldier 400
Carl Edwards ($10,100) – Carl Edwards has the nickname “Concrete Carl” for a reason, but as far as his efforts here at Dover, he isn’t worthy of that label. Edwards hasn’t finished better than 11th in any of the last seven races here at “The Monster Mile,” although that streak may come to an end here on Sunday. Still, in order for Edwards to be worth that huge $10,100 salary hit, he’s going to have to lead quite a few laps and get quite a few fastest laps in as well, and we don’t see that happening. The #19 Toyota was one of the few cars that showed speed in both practice sessions this weekend and if nothing crazy happens on Sunday, we could see Carl getting his ninth top 5 finish at Dover. However, he’s not worth the risk in DraftKings, in our opinion.
Joey Logano ($9,400) – We have learned over the last few years to never count out Joey Logano on race day. With that being said, we’re not overly confident in this #22 team right now, especially after their lackluster day at Loudon last weekend. The Penske Fords were slow all weekend long in New Hampshire, and while Logano’s teammate, Brad Keselowski, was still able to get a top 5 finish, Joey wasn’t as lucky. This weekend at Dover, it seems like the #22 team’s speed struggles have continued, and we don’t like that at all. Logano will start from 5th when this weekend’s Citizen Soldier 400 goes green, and while we do still see him as a top 10 threat, that’s not going to be good enough to warrant a DraftKings roster spot. Logano hasn’t finished better than 10th in the last three Dover races, but before that he had a four-race streak of finishes 8th or better.
Denny Hamlin ($9,500) – Denny Hamlin simply isn’t that good of a driver here at Dover, and considering the Sprint Cup teams got very little track time this weekend, that doesn’t bode well for him on Sunday. Obviously you can never count out this #11 team, but we’re not huge fans of drivers that has just one top 5 finish in the last twelve Dover races (like Denny does). Additionally, Hamlin’s career average finish of 18.6 here is nothing to ride home about, and his top 10 finish percentage of 33.3% (seven in twenty-one starts) isn’t great either. Denny isn’t going to go out and dominate this race on Sunday and doesn’t have much room for place differential FPTS either, considering he starts 7th. We’d recommend going with someone else in this price range.
“Flat-Out Avoid” DraftKings Drivers for the Dover 2 Citizen Soldier 400
Tony Stewart ($8,200) – With his 23rd-place finish at Loudon last weekend, Tony Stewart has now finished 16th or worse in each of the last six Sprint Cup races, and five of those races have also ended with Smoke outside of the top 20. And honestly, with each passing week, it seems like Stewart’s great finishes from June through August were a total fluke, and let’s not forget that he would have never made the Chase if Denny Hamlin didn’t “screw up” in the final turn at Sonoma. Going into Sunday’s Citizen Soldier 400, Tony Stewart is on the outside looking in as far as advancing in the Chase, and he’s going to need a win (or some major luck) to move on…and that’s probably not going to happen: Smoke has finished 20th or worse in seven of the last eleven Dover races. We can’t see any reason to take Tony Stewart in Fantasy NASCAR this weekend, especially in DraftKings at his decently-high $8,200 salary.
