New Hampshire Motor Speedway (Loudon) is a short, 1-mile race track that is very flat. Sunday afternoon’s Bad Boy Off Road 300 is also a very short race, so while 300 laps seems like a lot to run, it equals out to just 300 miles. Usually drivers starting up front here make good picks for fantasy owners, but when it comes to DraftKings, you have to choose carefully. There should be plenty of “mover” drivers this weekend (positive place differential) which means there will also be “loser” drivers (negative place differential). It’s best to avoid the latter, as you probably know.
The categories we use for different drivers to avoid are as follows: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that will start up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.
“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Loudon 2 Bad Boy Off Road 300
Carl Edwards ($9,800) – We might as well start from the top and move down. Usually starting on the pole is a huge advantage at short tracks, but unfortunately for Carl Edwards he rarely capitalizes on it. Cousin Carl qualified 1st for both Loudon races last season but led a total of just 38 laps between both of those events, although he did wind up finishing 7th and 5th. However, with the DraftKings scoring system, that’s not the number of FPTS you want out of a driver with such a large salary. Edwards constantly deals with the same problem here at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and that is he is very good on a short run but after 15 or 20 laps he’s just average. Edwards might be able to lead a handful of laps to start the race on Sunday, but if 2nd-place qualifier Martin Truex, Jr. has the car we think he does, Carl might not even lead the first. Very rarely does it work out to draft the pole sitter in DraftKings, and it’s probably not going to be the case this weekend.
Ryan Newman ($8,000) – The problems with Ryan Newman this week are that he qualified way too high (3rd) and he’s simply been too disappointing all season long to make him a viable option in DraftKings. And at $8,000, he definitely doesn’t come too cheap. Newman has finished between 7th and 11th in each of the last three races here at Loudon, and while he may have a car that can accomplish that here on Sunday–he was 8th in ten-lap average during the first practice session on Saturday–that’s not going to be a good finish in DraftKings. Because of the lost FPTS for place differential, a 10th-place result out of Newman on Sunday would equal just 27 base FPTS. The #31 Chevrolet isn’t fast enough to go out and lead a bunch of laps, either, so we wouldn’t put him on our DraftKings lineups this week even if you paid us.
Paul Menard ($6,200) – It may be surprising (it was to us) but Paul Menard has actually been a decent DraftKings option over the last month or so; in the last six races, Menard has scored at least 29 FPTS in four of those events. And in the lower-$6,000 price range, that’s decent value. This weekend, the #27 Chevrolet has shown quite a bit of speed since unloading, but after qualifying 14th, we just can’t recommend using Paul. This team has been at their best on short and flat tracks this season, but even then the potential for Menard to fall back by quite a bit is quite high. On a positive note, he does have seven top 20 finishes in the last nine races here at Loudon. However, an 18th-place finish from Menard here on Sunday (which is where he finished in the July race) would equal just 22 base FPTS.
Michael McDowell ($5,100) – Chances are the best DraftKings lineup this week is going to have a very low-dollar driver on it, but it won’t be Michael McDowell. He qualified 20th for Sunday’s Bad Boy Off Road 300, and while that may make him a driver to take a chance on in some other leagues, DraftKings is not one of them. If you look at McDowell’s history here at Loudon, in almost every race (eleven of twelve) he has finished worse than he started. That’s going to be the case once again this weekend. McDowell would be very lucky to finish 25th on Sunday and that would equal just 14 base FPTS.
“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Loudon 2 Bad Boy Off Road 300
Tony Stewart ($8,400) – The good news? Last weekend at Chicagoland, Tony Stewart posted his best finish in the last five Sprint Cup races. The bad news? It was a 16th-place result. Smoke qualified 22nd for this Sunday’s Bad Boy Off Road 300, and while this may make him seem like a good choice in DraftKings for the place differential potential, it’s probably not going to work out. The #14 Chevrolet was just a top 15 car at best during both practice sessions on Saturday, and Stewart has posted just three top 10 finishes in the last eight races here at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. It might have been worth taking a shot on Stewart if he wasn’t $8,400, but it’s almost impossible to justify that salary.
Kurt Busch ($8,900) – You can never really count out the Busch brothers at a short track, but we’re just going off of history here at Loudon and that means we won’t be rostering Kurt or his $8,900 salary this weekend. In the last three races here at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Busch has had a cumulative place differential of negative 38, and while he did finish 10th here in the July 2015 race, that’s Kurt’s only top 10 result in the last ten races at this track. This weekend, the #41 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 13th when the Bad Boy Off Road 300 goes green, but we just don’t see him finishing much better than that. Kurt did have the 11th-best ten-lap average in Happy Hour, though, but this team still has just one single-digit finish in the last nine Sprint Cup races overall, and we don’t see that changing this weekend.
Jamie McMurray ($7,800) – This isn’t an ‘avoid like the plague’ recommendation, but chances are Jamie McMurray isn’t going to put up more than 30 FPTS this week and at that $7,800 price point, it’s definitely not worth it. Now, don’t get us wrong, McMurray has plenty of potential to have another good run here on Sunday, but because he qualified 7th for Sunday’s Bad Boy Off Road 300, his DraftKings use potential is limited. With that being said, McMurray has finished 6th or better in three of the last six Loudon races, and with the way this #1 team is running, it wouldn’t be surprising to see it happen again. However, we don’t think it’s very likely, so we wouldn’t recommend drafting him.
