Intermediate race tracks are a major staple of the Chase playoff schedule, but it may be surprising to see how the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 400 race at Chicagoland plays out on Sunday considering we haven’t really been to these “cookie cutter” race tracks lately. As far as 1.5-mile venues–which Chicagoland is–the Sprint Cup Series hasn’t raced at one since Kentucky back in July. As far as historical trends at this track, it’s typically best to avoid the drivers starting up front in the Windy City, as very rarely do the top 5 qualifiers end up finishing there. However, thanks to rain at Chicagoland on Friday, qualifying was cancelled this weekend so all of the best drivers will be starting up front (the lineup was set on points standings) and that trend should end.
The categories we use for different drivers to avoid are as follows: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that will start up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.
“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Chicagoland TMNT 400
Denny Hamlin ($9,700) – From a Fantasy NASCAR perspective, there’s a couple of things to really like about Denny Hamlin this weekend. First is his momentum, as the #11 team is coming off of a win from the pole at Richmond and now has eight straight finishes of 9th or better in Sprint Cup action. Also, Hamlin has ended up inside the top 5 in four of the last five. The second thing that many people love about Denny this weekend is the fact that he’s the defending winner of this race. However, we don’t think it’s too wise to get caught up in that hype. Hamlin will roll off the grid from 3rd when the TMNT 400 goes green on Sunday, and while he could end up finishing inside the top 5 again, there are quite a few cars that have more speed than this #11 Toyota does heading into Sunday. We also don’t see Hamlin leading many laps in this race, so that really takes away any reason to take him in DraftKings.
Kyle Busch ($10,500) – You know the rule when it comes to the pole sitter: he or she is only a viable option if they can stay out front and make up that place differential FPTS gap with the other drivers. And while Kyle Busch is no stranger to leading laps here at Chicagoland–he has led 121, 46, and 67 laps in the last three races–we just don’t see that happening this weekend. Like Hamlin, we think that Kyle Busch could end up with a very good finish here on Sunday, but there are about five or six cars that look much better heading into race day. Busch did have the 3rd-fastest overall lap in Happy Hour on Saturday but his ten-lap average was just 8th-best. We could see him leading 20 or 30 laps in this year’s TMNT 400 but that’s not enough to make Kyle Busch a viable pick in DraftKings this weekend.
Chris Buescher ($7,200) – This should be a no-brainer, but for those of you who don’t follow NASCAR very close, Chris Buescher is in lower-tier equipment and the only reason he is in the playoffs is because he lucked into a win at Pocono due to a bunch of fog rolling into the track before rain ended the race early. Because of that (probably) DraftKings has been jacking up his price week after week and suddenly Buescher costs more than a lot of better drivers in better equipment. Now, Buescher has been a viable option a lot this season, but that’s only when he starts far back. Thanks to qualifying getting rained out this weekend, though, he’s going to roll off the grid from 13th on Sunday and will be lucky to score 20 FPTS. There’s no reason to even consider picking Chris Buescher in DraftKings this weekend–there’s no rain in the forecast.
“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Chicagoland TMNT 400
Alex Bowman ($7,900) – There’s a lot of “ifs” surrounding Alex Bowman this weekend. He’s in elite equipment, and could very easily be a high-scoring DraftKings driver on Sunday, if he finishes the race. He’s only made two starts in relief of Dale Earnhardt Jr. but hasn’t been able to go though a race without problems yet. However, with that kind of FPTS potential (Bowman starts back in 17th but had top 10 speed in two of the three practice sessions) and relatively low price, there’s going to be quite a few people putting him on their team this week. We won’t be one of them. There are some other low-dollar drivers that make much better options at Chicagoland (see our drivers to target here) and we’ll gladly go with them over Alex Bowman.
Tony Stewart ($8,100) – If Smoke wants to really compete for the championship in his final season, the #14 team needs to turn things around quick. They now have four straight finishes outside of the top 20 and three of the last four have been 30th or worse. As far as Chicagoland goes, Stewart is a three-time winner but he has struggled the last two years with finishes of 25th and 18th. On Sunday, Smoke will start the 2016 TMNT 400 from 11th but he might have a hard time staying up there. The #14 Chevrolet was pretty low on both ten-lap average charts on Saturday and ranked 23rd on the overall speed chart in the final Happy Hour. Stewart should be avoided this week for two main reasons: 1.) he has no momentum right now and 2.) his place differential FPTS potential is quite low.
