Darlington is a very tough venue and track position will be a premium here on Sunday night. We’re set to run 367 total laps for this weekend’s Bojangles’ Southern 500, which means there’s a decent amount of laps led and fastest lap bonus points up for grabs. The last three races at Darlington have all had one big lap leader (at least 50% of the race), but the previous Southern 500s didn’t always have one guy that dominated. This year, we anticipate several drivers leading a handful of the 367 laps.
High-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Darlington
($9,000 or above)
Denny Hamlin ($9,600) – The #11 Toyota is super fast this weekend, and at that $9,600 price point, that means you should probably build your DraftKings rosters around Denny Hamlin this weekend–as mentioned in our DraftKings Preview post from Wednesday. Denny is wildly under-priced this weekend and because of that he is going to be on a lot of rosters on Sunday night. However, that’s also what happens with one of the best choices in the field. Hamlin had the 2nd-best ten-lap average during the first practice session on Saturday and in Happy Hour he ended up 9th-best on that chart. Here at Darlington, he owns an incredible average finish of 6.5 in ten career starts, and the #11 Toyota has came home 3rd or better in three of the last four Southern 500s. Look for Hamlin to add another solid finish this weekend, and with his 7th-place starting spot on Sunday night, there’s a little bit of room for place differential points for Denny to add to his laps led and fastest laps FPTS total.
Jimmie Johnson ($9,300) – There are five drivers priced at $10,000 or higher in DraftKings this weekend but, honestly, it looks like the best cars will come from the guys a little lower on the price scale. For the third week in a row, Jimmie Johnson’s #48 Chevrolet has a whole bunch of speed in it, and we think that he will be challenging for the Bojangles’ Southern 500 win here on Sunday night. Over the last two weeks, Johnson has put up 52 FPTS in each race and it wouldn’t surprise us if he had another 50+ FPTS day here at Darlington, either. Jimmie is a three-time winner at this race track and has finished 4th or better in three of the last four races here. On Sunday night, he’s going to start the race from back in 9th, but Johnson should be solidly inside the top 5 in no time at all once we get going. Now is the time to jump back on the Jimmie Johnson bandwagon.
Kyle Larson ($9,100) – As soon as we heard that qualifying was cancelled this weekend, our mind went to Kyle Larson. The Sprint Cup Series’ most recent winner has done very well here at “The Lady in Black” thus far, and considering the #42 team is back in 16th in the owners points standings, that means there’s a bunch of potential for place differential FPTS from Larson on Sunday night. He has only made two career starts here at “The Track Too Tough to Tame” but he was impressive in both; during Kyle’s rookie year, he started 17th and finished 8th in the Southern 500, and in last year’s race he wound up 10th after starting 16th and leading 3 laps. Now that he can relax and just race, we think that we could see an even better Kyle Larson. It’s going to be fun to watch him on Sunday night, especially since he has a fast race car at Darlington this weekend; in Practice #1 on Saturday, Kyle was 4th on the overall speed chart but didn’t post a ten-lap average because he ran very few laps–which, we admit, is a little concerning. In Happy Hour, however, the #42 Chevrolet ended up 7th in ten-lap average, so that calms those fears a little bit. Larson finally broke into the high-dollar DraftKings category, but he could be well worth the money here on Sunday night.
Mid-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Darlington
(between $7,000 and $9,000)
Kasey Kahne ($7,500) – There’s actually quite a few things to like about Kasey Kahne this weekend, and at a price point of $7,500, he’s definitely going to be on some of our rosters. The first thing to like about Kahne here on Sunday night is how this #5 team has been running as of late, as well as Hendrick as a whole. Over the last four Sprint Cup races overall, the #5 Chevrolet has came home inside the top 15 in three of them, and ended up 18th or better in five of the last seven. The next thing to like about Kahne is his promising history here at Darlington. In thirteen career starts at “The Lady in Black,” Kasey has averaged a finish of 15.8, and in the last five Southern 500s he has wound up 12th or better in three of them. The last thing to like about Kahne this weekend? His speed. Kasey posted the 13th-fastest lap in Practice #1 on Saturday, and then in Happy Hour he jumped up to 4th-fastest with the 4th-best ten-lap average as well. Considering he starts back in 18th for this race, there’s definitely some room for place differential FPTS from Kasey Kahne here on Sunday night.
Jamie McMurray ($7,400) – Like his teammate, Kyle Larson, Jamie McMurray is another driver that jumped to the front of the line once it was announced that qualifying was cancelled. Jamie Mac doesn’t have quite the place differential FPTS potential that Larson has, but he does have some: the #1 Chevrolet will roll off the grid from 13th here on Sunday night. We had McMurray pegged as a potential top 10 threat heading into the race weekend and while we’re not as confident with that prediction after the practice sessions on Saturday, you never know how these races are going to play out–especially when we practice during the day and race at night. The #1 Chevrolet wasn’t super fast during the practice sessions on Saturday, but his teammate (the #42) showed a good amount of speed, so we think McMurray is going to be much better than he showed. Here at Darlington, McMurray owns a career average finish of 15.9 and has finished inside the top 10 in five of his fifteen career starts (33.3%). Over the last six Southern 500s, McMurray has ended up 16th or better in five of them, and he should add another result inside that mark this weekend. This #1 team is just finishing races to stay in the Chase on points, and with that comes pretty good finishes. Remember, McMurray has four top 10s in the last six Sprint Cup races overall.
Greg Biffle ($7,200) – Is it risky? Yes. Does it work out more often than not? Yes. With his 45 FPTS at Michigan last weekend, Greg Biffle has now scored at least that amount in four of the last seven Sprint Cup races overall, and at a relatively cheap price. This $7,200 salary for The Biff this weekend is actually kind of high, but when you consider his record here at Darlington, you probably know why. Biffle owns a career average finish of 13.6 here at “The Lady in Black, and that includes two wins here back in 2005 and 2006. He finished 5th in this race two years ago and has wound up 13th or better in four of the last five races here at “The Track Too Tough to Tame.” On Sunday night, Biffle will roll off the grid from the 23rd-place starting spot, and he should be able to make up some spots, as the #16 Ford showed good speed in both practice sessions (12th-fastest in Practice #1 and 6th-fastest in Happy Hour with the best ten-lap average). This team is in “do or die” mode right now, which means they’re going to try any gamble they can to get a win and lock themselves into the Chase. So, as we said before, drafting Greg Biffle on Sunday night is going to be a little risky, but that gamble has paid off for us more often than not as of late, and it helps when we’re at his 4th-best track on the circuit.
Low-Dollar DraftKings Drivers to Target at Darlington
(under $7,000)
Chris Buescher ($6,600) – Here’s another driver that is an extremely risky choice, but you know what they say: high risk, high reward. The basic rule of thumb is to not pick rookies here at Darlington, but there are some exceptions to that rule. Those drivers that can stay out of trouble and just log laps will usually end up with good finishes simply because of attrition. Chris Buescher has kind of fit that mold here in the last couple of months. Yeah, he had those engine issues at Michigan that relegated him to a 35th-place finish, but this #34 team has actually been running pretty well here as of late as they try to hang on to their Chase life. And that’s one reason to like Buescher this weekend: he needs a good finish. We’re not asking the world out of him, we’ll be more than happy with a top 20. Which is part of the second reason we like him as a potential low-dollar driver here on Sunday night: place differential points. Buescher will start 31st for this year’s Bojangles’ Southern 500, and as long as he can keep his car off the wall (a big if), he should be good for a mid-30s FPTS day. For what it’s worth, Buescher did finish 5th here at Darlington in the Xfinity race last season, but that’s his only top 10 here in that series over four career starts. One thing to note is that the #34 Ford had top 20 speed in both practice sessions this weekend.
Regan Smith ($5,300) – Regan Smith should have been on most people’s radars this week, as he seems to have this race track figured out quite a bit. Don’t forget that he drove the #78 car to victory lane here back in 2011–although it’s still unclear whether Carl Edwards just let him win. That’s Regan’s only Sprint Cup win. With that victory, it brings Smith’s career average finish in six career Darlington starts to 17.7, which is actually better than Joey Logano’s 20.3. Now, do we think Regan Smith is going to be a legitimate top 20 contender here on Sunday night? No. Have crazier things happened this season? Absolutely. The #7 Chevrolet has finished 26th or better in four of the last five Sprint Cup races overall, and when you take into account that Regan Smith is starting 33rd here on Sunday night, he could post another high-20s FPTS night. In order for the Smith gamble to pay off this weekend, however, there needs to be one main lap leader…and the #7 team has to have a mistake-free race, of course. Neither are guaranteed at Darlington.
