Although qualifying up front is a very good thing here at Michigan International Speedway, it’s not a guarantee of success on race day. For example, when we raced here back in June, there were a few drivers that either wrecked out or had mechanical issues and ended up ruining a bunch of DraftKings rosters, including Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Now obviously those kind of issues are almost impossible to predict, but there are still a few drivers that it would be best to avoid with this weekend’s Pure Michigan 400. Races at this track are typically very clear-cut with minimal surprises, and nothing should be different on Sunday.
We are sticking with our categories for different drivers to avoid: 1.) Over-Qualified, or drivers that qualified up front and probably won’t finish there, 2.) Over-Valued, or drivers that simply cost too much for the limited potential points they will earn or are going to be drafted by many other players, giving you an opportunity to fade them, and 3.) Flat-Out Avoid, or drivers that should simply be avoided at all costs. Most drivers will be categorized as either 1 or 2.
“Over-Qualified” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Pure Michigan 400
Jimmie Johnson ($9,300) – The problem with Jimmie Johnson qualifying 2nd this weekend is that he’s going to have to lead quite a few laps in order to make him worthy of a roster spot. Unfortunately, Joey Logano is on the pole and it’s looking like we’re about to see some more domination by that #22 team. So while Johnson looks like he has more speed this weekend than he has in the last two or three months, it’s hard to recommend him for your DraftKings team. In addition to that, taking the #48 Chevrolet is still an incredibly risky decision, and while that’s usually what it takes to put a great team together with these weekly DFS games, there’s probably an 85% chance that it’s not going to work out with Johnson this weekend. He’s boom or bust here at Michigan International Speedway, and six of the last eight races have been bust for “Six Time.” He did get the win here back in 2014 but that’s one of just five top 5 finishes in twenty-nine career starts here for Johnson, and his average finish of 16.8 in the Irish Hills is nothing to get excited about. On a positive note, the #48 Chevrolet had good long run speed in both practice sessions on Saturday and JJ wound up 3rd-fastest in that Happy Hour practice session.
Ryan Blaney ($7,400) – When you combine speed, an unsteady, young driver, and a relatively low price point, you have the perfect storm for a potentially bad Fantasy NASCAR pick. The fact of the matter is, however, many people are going to fall for this trap this weekend. Ryan Blaney has shown flashes of running well this season, and we all remember the other rookie (Chase Elliott) having a great run here at Michigan back in June. However, let’s not forget that the #21 Ford hasn’t finished better than 10th since the Dover race way back in May, and Blaney was just 16th-fastest on the Happy Hour speed chart Saturday. He’s a nice (albeit) risky pick in other leagues this weekend, but as far as DraftKings goes, Blaney’s 7th-place qualifying effort really limits his FPTS potential. He started 5th and finished 17th in the first Michigan race this season.
“Over-Valued” DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the Pure Michigan 400
Matt Kenseth ($9,700) – None of the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas look stellar this weekend, and let’s not forget that Carl Edwards was the only Toyota to crack the top 10 here at Michigan back in June. As far as Matt Kenseth goes this weekend, it might look like he has some place differential FPTS potential on Sunday, but that’s probably going to be very limited. The #20 Toyota will roll off the grid from 13th when this race gets going, and although Kenseth is a three-time winner here at Michigan International Speedway, he typically only runs well here when he qualifies near the front–at least as of late. Four of the last six races at this track have ended with Kenseth in 14th-place or worse, and while it’s weird thinking of him as a mid-teens car, that’s probably about the ceiling for this #20 Toyota on Sunday. This team is currently on a three-race streak of double-digit finishes and Kenseth has ended up 14th or worse in five of the last nine Sprint Cup races overall.
Chris Buescher ($6,600) – Okay, so we were wrong about Chris Buescher at Bristol last week, as he actually turned out to be a pretty nice option. But, unlike that race, Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400 isn’t going to turn into a game of Survivor. Wrecks are few and far between at Michigan International Speedway events, and that means you need to have a very good race car to make your way through the field. And while Buescher might actually have a top 20-capable car on Sunday, that’s not going to do much for you in DraftKings. He qualified 21st so right there went any potential place differential points. The last time we were here at Michigan, Buescher scored 27 FPTS after starting 22nd and finishing 20th. And while that’s not a terrible score out of a lower-tier driver like him, Chris’s salary has shot up to $6,600 now, and he’s simply not worth that kind of money–especially with how unreliable he is as a Fantasy NASCAR pick. With all of that being said, if you’re able to put together a roster that Buescher fits and completes with his salary, he is one of the better options in this price range.
Alex Bowman ($8,100) – File this guy in the “Over-Qualified” list as well. We wouldn’t mind seeing Alex Bowman have a good run here on Sunday–and we actually hope he does because he’s on some of our other teams–but really the chances of him finishing close to where he starts (6th) are slim to none. This #88 Chevrolet has a lot of speed in it (Bowman was top 10 in both practice sessions on Saturday), but this is just his second Sprint Cup start of the season and that’s going to come into play during the Pure Michigan 400. Also, Bowman is really just out there logging laps to get experience, so it’s not like he’s going to be racing super hard. A great day out of Bowman and this #88 team would be about a 12th-place finish, which would net him 26 FPTS in DraftKings. That’d be a decent amount if his salary was where it should be ($6,000 or so), but at $8,100? Hell no.
“Flat-Out Avoid” DraftKings Drivers for the Pure Michigan 400
Kyle Busch ($10,000) – Is Kyle Busch capable of putting up a solid finish in Sunday’s Pure Michigan 400? Yes. Does he have the car to accomplish that? Possibly. Will it happen? Probably not. You know you’re down on your luck at a particular track when Josh Wise and Michael Annett have a better average finish over the last five races there, as is the case with Kyle Busch at Michigan right now. The #18 Toyota had engine problems here back in June and that makes it four finishes of 39th or worse in the last five Michigan races for Kyle Busch. Yikes. His best finish during that span came in this exact race one year ago, where he ended up finishing 11th. And if Rowdy can make it through Sunday without any mechanical problems or running into the wall, he might be able to replicate that, but 38 FPTS for an 11th-place finish isn’t worthy of a $10,000 price tag. There’s going to be quite a few people that see Kyle Busch’s starting spot of 16th on Sunday and their eyes will get big because of the chance for place differential points, but don’t forget that there was only one Toyota in the top 11 here back in June, and those cars don’t look too stellar this weekend, either.
