DraftKings NASCAR Pure Michigan 400 Preview

As expected, last week’s NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at Bristol was a crazy one, as there were many popular DraftKings drivers that ended up wrecking out of the event. This week we’re on to the 2-mile Michigan International Speedway for the Pure Michigan 400 and you should expect a much more tame race. We last raced here back in June and it was Joey Logano that dominated, leading 138 laps, winning from the pole, and scoring 106 FPTS. Chase Elliott, who finished 2nd, was next with 74.25 FPTS, and then Kevin Harvick with 65 FTPS scored after finishing 5th.

What to Expect at Michigan

Michigan is a big intermediate race track but passing isn’t as easy as you would think. The pole winner has finished 1st or 2nd in five of the last six races here, and the only exception was a rain-shortened in June 2015. As far as lap leaders go, Joey Logano led 69% of the laps here in June, and Matt Kenseth led 71% of the laps in last year’s Pure Michigan 400.

Pure Michigan 400 Favorites

Brad Keselowski ($10,200) – The hometown boy has never won here in the Irish Hills but that’s going to change eventually–and probably soon. Keselowski has finished 3rd or better in four of the last seven Sprint Cup races overall, and that includes his win back at Kentucky–a race where the cars ran a similar aero package to what they’re going to run this weekend. Here at Michigan, Brad is a perennial front runner with five straight finishes of 9th or better and no result worse than 13th since the 2011 season. The only downside to Keselowski here at Michigan is that he has never led more than 17 laps in a race, but if he can put down a fast lap in qualifying on Friday, don’t be surprised to see his name among the lap leaders on Sunday.

Joey Logano ($10,400) – On Sunday, Joey Logano will be going for his second straight Michigan win (and third overall) and we wouldn’t put it past him to put his #22 Ford in the Pure Michigan 400 victory lane. Since joining Penske Racing back in 2013, Joey has never finished worse than 9th at this race track and he has led at least 20 laps in five of the seven events. He has posted two poles in his career here, and has gone to victory lane at the end of both of those races. From a momentum perspective, Logano didn’t have a stellar day at Bristol last weekend but he came home with a 10th-place finish and has now finished inside that mark in nine of the last eleven Sprint Cup races overall. Joey will be a favorite heading into the race weekend and should be after qualifying and practice is complete as well.

Kevin Harvick ($10,700) – Harvick is the most expensive driver in the field this weekend, and for good reason: he’s coming off of a 134 FPTS performance at Bristol last weekend and has scored at least 44 points in DraftKings in six of the last eight races overall. As mentioned before, Harvick put up a nice score in the first Michigan race this season (thanks to his poor qualifying effort), but he’s been a nice Fantasy NASCAR choice here in the Irish Hills for a few years now. In the last seven races here at MIS, Harvick has finished inside the top 5 in six of them, and the only exception was that rain-shortened race last year. One positive note on that? Harvick led the most laps that day and probably had the car to beat. He could very well get his second Sprint Cup victory in a row this week in the Pure Michigan 400.

“Value” Drivers to Keep an Eye On

Jamie McMurray ($7,600) – Jamie Mac wound up scoring a bunch of FPTS at Bristol last weekend, and don’t be surprised if he puts up another solid score this weekend at Michigan. It seems like this #1 team has worked pretty well with this aero package this season, as Jamie finished 9th here at Michigan back in June and wound up 7th in the Kentucky race last month. In addition to that, McMurray has just been a solid Fantasy NASCAR pick here at Michigan as of late, at least when taking into account the tier that he is in. Over the last five races at MIS, Jamie’s worst finish has been 16th, and he’s actually ended up 14th or better in six of the last nine Michigan races. The thing you really have to like about him this weekend, however, is his momentum: McMurray has four top 10s in the last six Sprint Cup races overall, and hasn’t had a result worse than 20th since the July Daytona race.

Paul Menard ($7,100) – It’s hard for even the most faithful NASCAR fans to explain, but some drivers just really like certain race tracks, or they constantly finish up front at them. Such is the case with Paul Menard at Michigan International Speedway. Looking at the last eight races at this track, the #27 Chevrolet has ended up inside the top 10 in five of those events, including a three-race streak of 4th-place finishes in 2013 and 2014. Paul started 24th and finished 12th in this race one year ago, and although he slipped a bit and ended up 18th here back in June, don’t forget that he qualified 32nd for that race, so he still put up a nice score in DraftKings. The only negative thing we have to say about Menard this week is that he’s in a pretty big slump in the month of August, with three straight finishes outside of the top 20.

Trevor Bayne ($6,300) – Another race has passed and once again Trevor Bayne was one of the best dollar-for-dollar DraftKings options available. He scored 44 FPTS at Bristol last weekend and that makes it five of the last seven races that he has ended up with at least 37 FPTS in DraftKings. Yet somehow his salary doesn’t really move, unlike Chris Buescher who jumped up to $6,600 this week (wow). Anyway, getting back to Bayne, if he doesn’t have that great of a qualifying effort here on Friday, he should be a shoo-in low-dollar driver on Sunday. Trevor has finished 15th, 22nd, and 9th in the last three races here at Michigan, and in the last ten Sprint Cup races overall, he has came home 15th or better in six of them.

Other Race Notes

• 

  Dale Earnhardt, Jr. was not cleared medically and will miss yet another race. Alex Bowman, whose career-best finish here at MIS is 26th, will be piloting the #88 Chevrolet on Sunday. He should be able to run better than that, though.

• Greg Biffle leads all active drivers with 4 wins at this track. Kurt Busch and Matt Kenseth are next with 3 victories each, and then there’s five drivers with 2 wins at Michigan, including the spring winner, Joey Logano.

• This weekend’s Pure Michigan 400 will once again feature the provisional 2017 rules package. This was the same aero package that was used at the June race here at Michigan. It is also similar to what was ran this season at Kentucky Speedway as well as the All Star Race at Charlotte. Those results are listed below.

Michigan (June 2016) Results 

1. Joey Logano
2. Chase Elliott
3. Kyle Larson
4. Brad Keselowski
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Carl Edwards
7. Tony Stewart
8. Austin Dillon
9. Jamie McMurray
10. Kurt Busch

Kentucky (July 2016) Results 

1. Brad Keselowski
2. Carl Edwards
3. Ryan Newman
4. Kurt Busch
5. Tony Stewart
6. Greg Biffle
7. Jamie McMurray
8. Matt Kenseth
9. Kevin Harvick
10. Martin Truex, Jr.

All Star Race (May 2016) Results 

1. Joey Logano
2. Brad Keselowski
3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
4. Carl Edwards
5. Kurt Busch
6. Chase Elliott
7. Trevor Bayne
8. Greg Biffle
9. Denny Hamlin
10. Kyle Busch

Obviously, it’s hard to accurately predict which drivers will score the most in DraftKings before seeing practice and, more importantly, qualifying. Check back here again on Saturday for our Drivers to Target and Drivers to Avoid for Sunday afternoon’s Pure Michigan 400.