The drivers you want to avoid in DraftKings Fantasy NASCAR games are the ones that qualified well but will probably fall back and finish a lot worse than they started during the actual race. Unfortunately, we don’t really see that quite as often here at Michigan: in the last three non-rain-shortened races here, an average of just under 7 of the top 10 qualifiers also finished inside that mark. With Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400, though, NASCAR is trying out some new rules with the cars that should promote passing. We typically see many of the same faces up front at Michigan, so the drivers to avoid in DraftKings this weekend are somewhat straightforward.
DraftKings Drivers to Avoid for the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan
Kurt Busch ($9,700) – Here’s a driver you probably didn’t expect to see on this list. Kurt Busch will start Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400 from the 17th starting spot, and was 5th-fastest during the Happy Hour practice session. Don’t forget that this guy is coming off of a win at Pocono on Monday, plus he is the defending winner of this race here at Michigan International Speedway as well. It all seems like a good combination, right? Don’t be fooled. There’s more reasons to not like Kurt Busch this weekend than there are to like him. First and foremost, he won the race here at Michigan last season because of rain. There’s literally a zero percent chance of rain here this time around. That win is one of just two top 10 finishes that Kurt Busch has posted in his last eleven starts at this race track, and when you look at the races that we’ve ran so far in 2016, there was one that this #41 team just struggled all race weekend long: Fontana. That’s also a 2-mile venue like Michigan. Kurt Busch found some speed in Happy Hour here on Sunday but putting down one fast lap doesn’t equate to race speed. He’s going to be a popular pick in DraftKings this weekend, but we think you should avoid him and let the other guys fall into the trap.
Tony Stewart ($7,300) – We want to see Tony Stewart have a good run here on Sunday, but we’re just being smart here. The fact of the matter is that Smoke hasn’t had a great finish since returning from his back injury. Yeah, that 6th-place finish at Talladega technically belongs to Tony Stewart, but it was Ty Dillon that raced the majority of that event. With that being said, this #14 Chevrolet is actually pretty competitive–at least more than last year. For example, last weekend at Pocono, Smoke ran in the top 10 all day before getting wrecked. And he has shown pretty good speed here at Michigan this weekend, ranking 3rd in ten-lap average during Saturday morning’s practice session. But, like we said before, we’re taking the safer route by avoiding Tony Stewart in DraftKings for the FireKeepers Casino 400. Stewart qualified 3rd for Sunday’s race, so he’s going to have to lead some laps and finish up front in order to make him a viable option in these games–nowhere near a guarantee. He’s moderately priced this week but there are far better options. Stewart started 5th in the fall race here at Michigan last season and ended up finishing 21st–his fourth finish outside of the top 10 in the last five races at this track.
Ryan Newman ($7,100) – Ryan Newman is a solid mid-tier Fantasy NASCAR pick this weekend at Michigan, but not in some formats. One league that it wouldn’t be wise to put Ryan Newman on your roster is DraftKings. The thing is, when you choose a driver that qualifies up front for a race, you better make sure he or she can also finish up there (and hopefully lead some laps as well). Ryan Newman doesn’t fit that description. Yes, this #31 team is running well right now–with three finishes of 12th or better in the last four Sprint Cup races–but that’s not good enough. Yes, even at this lower price point. With the FireKeepers Casino 400 on Sunday, “The Rocketman” is going to start 6th and probably won’t be able to crack the top 10 when the checkered flag waves. So right off the bat you’re losing points. He did wind up finishing 8th in the fall race here at MIS last season, but that’s Newman’s only top 10 result in the last six races at this track. In the Fontana race back in March–which is another 2-mile race track like Michigan–Newman started 4th and ended up finishing 14th. We’re expecting a similar result here on Sunday.
Aric Almirola ($6,400) – There’s going to be quite a few people that pick Aric Almirola in DraftKings this weekend because of two reasons: his lower price and his terrible starting spot (30th). While this is often a good combination, there are other drivers available that will probably score more points than Almirola on Sunday–such as Paul Menard ($6,300) and Clint Bowyer ($6,700). The fact of the matter is that Richard Petty Motorsports is struggling big time. Almirola made it clear in an interview earlier this week that this #43 team doesn’t even have a baseline setup to go off of most of the time, which means they’re putting much throwing shit at a wall and seeing what sticks. I don’t like that kind of strategy from guys on my Fantasy NASCAR teams. The #43 Ford should move up a few spots on race day but there’s not enough speed in that car to crack the top 20, which is what we’d need to see to put Almirola on our teams.
