Texas Motor Speedway is 1.5-mile D-shaped oval that is somewhat similar to Atlanta Motor Speedway, where we ran at in late February. We saw quite a few drivers come up through the field in that Atlanta race, led by race-winner Jimmie Johnson, who started 19th. Here at Texas, we’ve seen qualifying be of a little bit more importance, though, as both races in 2015 saw drivers that started up front also finish there. This weekend, however, we saw quite a few drivers qualify mid-pack or worse that we expect to finish up front–specifically the “big three:” Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, and Kyle Busch. The best rosters this week should have at least one of those guys on them.
Ultimate Value DraftKings Picks for the Texas Duck Commander 500
Kevin Harvick ($10,500) – Yeah, Kevin Harvick is going to take a big chunk of our salary cap this weekend, but it’s going to be worth it. The #4 Chevrolet will roll off the grid in 22nd when the Duck Commander 500 goes green but Harvick should be able to quickly make his way up through the field. He had the 4th-best ten-lap average during that final practice session on Friday and is currently on a three-race streak of top 3 finishes here at Texas Motor Speedway. The key to choosing the right high-priced driver this weekend is going with the one that is going to lead the most laps. We think that that’s going to be Kevin Harvick, and as an added bonus he also starts mid-pack, so there’s plenty of room for place differential points as well.
Kurt Busch ($8,400) – The elder Busch brother is right there on the upper edge of the mid-priced drivers this week, and for that reason he’s probably worth a shot depending on how the rest of your roster adds up. The good news about this #41 Chevrolet is that it has seemed to found more speed as the weekend has gone on. Kurt qualified 21st for Saturday night’s Duck Commander 500 but he ended up with the 6th-fastest lap in Happy Hour on Friday and was 12th when it came to ten-lap average during that session. He also has two top 10 finishes in his last three Texas starts and wound up 14th in this race one year ago after starting from the pole and leading 45 laps.
Paul Menard ($6,500) – Paul Menard has been a solid teens finisher for most races this season, and he finally broke out with a top 10 result at Martinsville a week ago. That could be the boost in the arm that this #27 team needs to go on a little streak. For Saturday night’s Duck Commander 500, Menard qualified 25th, which is pretty much the perfect starting spot for someone like him and at his price. Paul did finish 13th here last November and has ended up 17th or better in five of the last six Sprint Cup races at Texas Motor Speedway. A 17th-place result here on Saturday night would net Menard about 35 points in DraftKings, which is a very good value for his $6,500 price tag.
Brian Scott ($5,600) – If you want to load up on the high-priced drivers this week, you’re going to have to put at least one low-priced driver on your DraftKings roster. So why not give Brian Scott a chance? He qualified 27th, which is a little higher than we would have liked, but he ran 14th in the fall race here last season while driving the #33 Chevrolet for Circle Sport, and he’s coming off of a solid 12th-place run at Fontana a couple weeks ago. You never know, with the right caution placement and a little luck, Brian Scott could surprise some people again here at Texas. He was 18th-best in ten-lap average during Happy Hour on Friday.
