Trying a new format this weekend, as my DFS video and breakdown will be separate from the Projections posts. You can find this week’s video down below, but first let’s dig into the optimal lineups according to my projections for each DFS site. If you need a refresher on my projections for Sunday’s Instacart 500 at Phoenix, here they are:
- DraftKings Phoenix Projections (click here)
- FanDuel Phoenix Projections (click here)
NOTE: Kyle Larson and William Byron will have to start from the rear on Sunday but will be scored from their original positions. If anything changed below, it’s noted.
Optimal DraftKings Lineup (according to Jordan’s projections)
- Chase Elliott
- Kyle Larson
- Tyler Reddick
- Kurt Busch
- Cole Custer
- Ryan Newman
Confidence Meter: 7/10. If Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson are the two main dominators in this race, this lineup has potential, plus it gets you off of the Aric Almirola / Alex Bowman chalk. Kurt Busch is a tournament play and has almost no dominator potential, but is a great value at his price if he can pull off a typical Kurt Busch top 10 on Sunday. I similar lineup to this that I like more is: Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Cole Custer (or Ryan Newman), and Daniel Suarez.
EDIT: The lineup above was with the original projections. Here is the new optimal with the updated projections:
- Chase Elliott
- Brad Keselowski
- Tyler Reddick
- Ross Chastain
- Cole Custer
- Ryan Newman
Confidence Meter: 6/10. This one is really banking on Keselowski and Elliott being the two dominators. I like something like this a little better: Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Newman, Justin Haley.
Optimal FanDuel Lineup (according to Jordan’s projections)
- Joey Logano
- Kyle Busch
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Aric Almirola
- Tyler Reddick
Confidence Meter: 6.5/10. It’s pretty chalky but this is a solid lineup with the two place differential plays in Aric Almirola and Tyler Reddick, especially if Reddick can sneak in a top 10 finish. Personally I like Ryan Blaney a little bit more than Truex with this lineup, but both should have solid outings. I think this lineup lacks major dominator potential, though. My favorite FanDuel lineup as of Saturday afternoon is the one we go over in the video, which is Logano, Kyle Busch, Larson, Blaney, and Buescher. EDIT: With the Larson news, I like this lineup a little better: Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, Jr., Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher.
