The final NASCAR DraftKings slate of 2018 is here! Be sure to check out my DraftKings Projections post for my GPP plays, fades, and point projections, and you can check out the chart below on where I’d like to be ownership-wise when it comes to the drivers this weekend. As far as the practices on Saturday, Joey Logano ($10,600) looked the fastest and is also the lowest-priced of the Championship Four. His ownership percentage should be plenty high. Next fastest was probably Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,300) and then Kyle Busch ($11,600), although Kyle Larson ($10,000) had a ton of long run speed that will play dividends in today’s Ford EcoBoost 400. As far as lineup construction, chances are you’re going to need two of the drivers mentioned above. We usually see at least two dominators here at Homestead, and the Championship Four always have a boost in performance in this race.
Please note that my “Ownership Target” designation is for GPPs, not cash games. There’s a different strategy there and I tend to like being underweight on drivers that are good cash game plays. Good luck to everyone today, hopefully we can win some money and close out the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series on a strong note!
| Driver | DK Price | Starting Position | Projected DraftKings Points | Ownership Target | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | $8,800 | 1 | 38.7 | Fade | |
| Kyle Busch | $11,800 | 2 | 76.6 | Overweight | See my Projections article for notes |
| Martin Truex Jr | $11,300 | 3 | 56.4 | Underweight | I don't like how this car has performed since "the announcement" |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,400 | 4 | 50.2 | Overweight | See my Projections article for notes |
| Joey Logano | $10,600 | 5 | 68.4 | Moderate ownership | Maybe even a bit underweight. His speeds and lowest price of Championship Four will make him high owned |
| Kurt Busch | $9,200 | 6 | 26.8 | Underweight | Starts too high, priced too high |
| Erik Jones | $8,200 | 7 | 41.2 | Underweight | Will probably be higher owned because of strong practices and lower price |
| Ryan Newman | $7,500 | 8 | 20.8 | Underweight | |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,300 | 9 | 21.8 | Underweight | |
| Aric Almirola | $8,400 | 10 | 40.5 | Overweight | Love this play this weekend. He was great at Chicagoland |
| Kyle Larson | $10,000 | 11 | 100.4 | Overweight | Some place differential + high dominator potential at a good price |
| Kevin Harvick | $12,500 | 12 | 66.9 | Overweight | |
| Alex Bowman | $7,400 | 13 | 24.8 | Low Ownership | |
| Chase Elliott | $9,700 | 14 | 41.4 | Moderate ownership | Should end up between 6th and 9th. Is that worth the price with low dominator potential, though? |
| Ryan Blaney | $8,600 | 15 | 42.9 | Moderate ownership | Has a strong car but questionable track history |
| Austin Dillon | $7,700 | 16 | 35.1 | Moderate ownership | I like the play but hard to fit in that at that price |
| Matt Kenseth | $6,700 | 17 | 27.4 | Moderate ownership | Good track history |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,800 | 18 | 22.4 | Moderate ownership | Model doesn't like him but I don't mind the play. Like Dillon, though, that price is tough |
| Jimmie Johnson | $8,000 | 19 | 29.9 | Underweight | Not great here, or this season overall |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,500 | 20 | 24.8 | Overweight | Homestead is a great track for AJ and he has an average finish of 18.3 on Playoff 1.5-mile tracks |
| Jamie McMurray | $7,100 | 21 | 30.2 | Overweight | Again, when Larson has speed, so does McMurray. Jamie is also averaging a finish of 13.2 over the last five Homestead races |
| Paul Menard | $7,000 | 22 | 38.0 | Overweight | |
| Bubba Wallace | $5,900 | 23 | 18.6 | Underweight | |
| Michael McDowell | $5,600 | 24 | 23.2 | Overweight | |
| David Ragan | $6,300 | 25 | 21.0 | Underweight | Too hiigh of a price for me |
| Clint Bowyer | $9,000 | 26 | 44.1 | Underweight | Chalk play but I really don't like his momentum |
| Chris Buescher | $6,100 | 27 | 27.0 | Overweight | Should challenge for a top 20 |
| William Byron | $6,900 | 28 | 23.6 | Underweight | Chalk play for place differential, but he's been awful at 1.5-mile tracks. And we're at one that it's really easy to hit the wall |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,400 | 29 | 16.6 | Moderate ownership | |
| Regan Smith | $5,800 | 30 | 19.6 | Overweight | Good pivot off of McDowell, but hard to trust Smith |
| Ty Dillon | $6,400 | 31 | 22.6 | Moderate ownership | Too hiigh of a price for me, and he'll need attrition |
| Landon Cassill | $5,200 | 32 | 13.6 | Moderate ownership | |
| JJ Yeley | $5,100 | 33 | 13.4 | Moderate ownership | |
| Corey Lajoie | $4,900 | 34 | 19.2 | Overweight | The 72 car has been very good at 1.5-mile tracks this year. Hopefully LaJoie can keep it off the wall |
| Kyle Weatherman | $5,000 | 35 | 12.6 | Low Ownership | |
| BJ McLeod | $4,600 | 36 | 11.2 | Low Ownership | |
| Tanner Berryhill | $4,700 | 37 | 10.2 | Fade | |
| Timmy Hill | $4,800 | 38 | 07.2 | Fade | |
| Ross Chastain | $5,300 | 39 | 23.8 | Overweight | Should get between 6 and 10 place differential points |
