As mentioned in my DraftKings Projections post, I won’t be recording a video this weekend. However, you can see the chart below for how I’m planning on playing this Can-Am 500(k) slate from a strategy perspective. I fully expect pole sitter Kevin Harvick ($12,300) to absolutely dominate this race, and I plan on having him on a significant amount of my rosters (probably around 80%). However, there is a chance that something crazy happens to the #4 Ford, which will open up the door for other dominators. Chase Elliott ($9,900) is going to be a popular pick on Sunday, and would be the next most likely to dominate if something happens to Harvick. However, don’t forget about Kyle Busch ($11,600), who’s starting 6th and is a top 3 car at worst. I actually like being overweight on Rowdy this weekend compared to the field, but I don’t like putting him and Harvick in the same lineup. Good luck to everyone today!
| Driver | DK Price | Starting Position | Projected DraftKings Points | Ownership Target | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | $12,300 | 1 | 120.50 | High Owned-Overweight | |
| Chase Elliott | $9,900 | 2 | 62.00 | Moderate ownership | |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $7,600 | 3 | 04.60 | Fade | |
| Ryan Blaney | $9,100 | 4 | 29.60 | Fade | |
| Alex Bowman | $7,200 | 5 | 30.80 | Underweight | May go over-owned due to domination here in 2016 |
| Kyle Busch | $11,600 | 6 | 67.30 | Overweight | Great pivot for non-Harvick lineups. |
| Erik Jones | $8,300 | 7 | 45.60 | Underweight | Super fast in practice, should be decently high-owned, but limited dominator potential. |
| Kyle Larson | $10,400 | 8 | 51.50 | Underweight | Should put up dominator points but has had trouble finishing here. |
| Joey Logano | $9,600 | 9 | 37.20 | Low Ownership | |
| Denny Hamlin | $8,600 | 10 | 46.40 | Overweight | Love the value. Great GPP play. |
| Paul Menard | $7,300 | 11 | 08.20 | Fade | |
| Brad Keselowski | $9,300 | 12 | 63.60 | Overweight | |
| Martin Truex Jr | $11,000 | 13 | 56.30 | Moderate ownership | Don't mind him in lineups without Harvick. Paired with Elliott most likely. |
| Kurt Busch | $8,700 | 14 | 43.20 | Overweight | |
| Austin Dillon | $7,900 | 15 | 32.00 | Overweight | |
| Clint Bowyer | $8,900 | 16 | 31.90 | Fade | |
| Matt Kenseth | $6,900 | 17 | 31.60 | Overweight | Pivot off of Byron |
| Aric Almirola | $8,100 | 18 | 53.10 | High Owned | |
| William Byron | $6,500 | 19 | 28.20 | Underweight | Should be high-owned, so I like being under to the field |
| Jimmie Johnson | $8,400 | 20 | 38.20 | Underweight | Chalk play but I like being underweight |
| Jamie McMurray | $7,500 | 21 | 26.20 | Overweight | When Larson is fast, McMurray usually is too. Great GPP play. |
| Ryan Newman | $7,100 | 22 | 35.90 | Moderate ownership | Chalk play |
| Michael McDowell | $5,800 | 23 | 13.00 | Low Ownership | |
| AJ Allmendinger | $6,800 | 24 | 24.00 | Low Ownership | |
| Chris Buescher | $6,700 | 25 | 20.20 | Low Owned-Underweight | |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,800 | 26 | 40.30 | Moderate ownership | Pivot off of Almirola |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $5,400 | 27 | 17.40 | Low Ownership | |
| Ty Dillon | $5,600 | 28 | 26.00 | High Owned | Chalk play |
| Regan Smith | $6,200 | 29 | 22.20 | Low Ownership | Over-priced but should finish top 25 |
| Bubba Wallace | $6,400 | 30 | 20.00 | Low Ownership | Over-priced but should finish top 25 |
| David Ragan | $6,000 | 31 | 21.80 | Overweight | Has finished 24th or better in 6 of last 7 |
| Landon Cassill | $5,100 | 32 | 13.60 | Low Ownership | |
| Ross Chastain | $4,900 | 33 | 16.60 | Moderate ownership | Punt play, should finish top 30 |
| Cole Whitt | $5,300 | 34 | 16.80 | Moderate ownership | Punt play, should finish top 30 |
| JJ Yeley | $5,200 | 35 | 16.60 | Low Ownership | |
| Tanner Berryhill | $4,600 | 36 | 08.40 | Fade | |
| Timmy Hill | $4,700 | 37 | 10.60 | Fade | |
| D.J. Kennington | $5,000 | 38 | 17.20 | Low Ownership | |
| Cody Ware | $4,800 | 39 | 13.40 | Fade |
