Everything is bigger in Texas, and that includes my confidence in the betting card this weekend. What could go wrong, right?
With that being said, there are quite a few high-value plays out there, and, surprisingly, none of them are top 20s! But if this race goes to plan, the win should come down to one of three drivers, so I’m strategically sprinkling money on those guys to win, then going heavy on a few other props and H2Hs. Now let’s get to the card!
Need to find an edge on Head-to-Head betting matchups this week? Take a look at the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for Sunday’s race and find those slam dunk bets.
Betting Card for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas
#JordanJinx
Denny Hamlin to Win (+700) – BetRivers opened their lines the earliest this week, as usual, and had both Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch a little longer than expected–again, as usual. The algorithm says that Denny Hamlin is going to be in victory lane here on Sunday afternoon, and that it’s going to come down to either him, Kyle Busch, or Kyle Larson. And when you look at the numbers, it’s hard to argue; these guys will start 1-2-3 on Sunday, rank 1-2-3 in average running position on “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season, and also rank 1-2-3 in average finish with the 550hp package this year. I bet on all three of these guys outright for this weekend (more on that below), but made sure to bet Hamlin first so he would be the #JordanJinx.
Favorite Bet of the Week
Kyle Busch Top 5 Finish (+100) – What a relatively easy way to double your money this weekend. Looking at the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season, Kyle Busch has finished 3rd, 1st, 3rd, and 3rd in the four races, and when you take a look at the 550hp package overall, Rowdy has eight top 5 finishes over those ten races with a worst result of 10th over that span. Also, Busch is the defending race winner here at Texas Motor Speedway, and is a four-time winner at this track. I’ll also be betting Kyle Busch Top 3 Finish (+200).
Rest of Jordan’s Card
William Byron Top 10 Finish (-167) – As RotoDoc and I talked about on Stacking Dennys this week, sportsbooks are giving William Byron longer odds than he should probably have due to the fact that he’s not in the Playoffs anymore. What this does, though, is create some major value in betting him for a top 3, top 5, or top 10 finish. Byron being at -167 for a top 10 on Sunday is an incredible value. This season on “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks, Willy B has the 5th-best average running position (7.2) and 6th-best average finish (9.8), and when you look at the ten races with the 550hp package, he ranks 3rd-best in average running position (7.6) and 4th-best in average finish (8.5).
William Byron (-109) over Kevin Harvick – This was another one we talked about on the podcast this week, although we liked it at -120 on Tuesday afternoon. Then BetRivers posted their head-to-heads on Tuesday night and had William Byron at -109, and Harvick somehow favored in this matchup. Give me all of that. On a good day, Harvick is about an 8th-place car this weekend. A good day for William Byron would be contending for the win. In the 550hp package this year, Byron is 6-4 straight up against Harvick, but really should be 7-3 because of how the Las Vegas Playoff race played out.
Brad Keselowski (+120) over Joey Logano – This is another matchup where the odds don’t make a lot of sense. Brad Keselowski has been stronger than expected on the “low-wear” 1.5-mile tracks this season, with finishes of 2nd and 7th in the two Vegas races, a 3rd-place result at Kansas, and an 11th at Charlotte. Meanwhile, Logano has a best finish of 9th over those four races, and that result in the first Vegas race has been his only top 10. Head-to-head, Keselowski is 4-0 against Logano on the “low-wear” 1.5-milers this year, and 8-2 in the ten 550hp package races overall.
Cody Ware to Win Group F (+240) – …I can’t believe I’m betting this. Shoutout to DraftKings Sportsbook for giving us a Shitbox Special group to bet this weekend, but it’s kind of a lose-lose because either Cody Ware is going to cost me money, or he’s going to win me money, and I’m not sure my pride is worth the financial gain of that situation. Anyway, this Shitbox group consists of Ware, Josh Bilicki, Quin Houff, and Timmy Hill. Ware has completed 9 more laps than Houff on the “low-wear” 1.5-milers this season, 29 more laps than Bilicki, and Timmy Hill is going to be so off pace that it will take the other three wrecking for him to win this group. Cody Ware is the obvious bet here, and it’s honestly not even close.
Outright Winner Strategy for Texas
RotoDoc and I talked about my outright betting strategy on the Stacking Dennys podcast episode this week (click here), but basically here it is: I’d be surprised if the winner isn’t Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, or Kyle Busch. The algorithm has those three clearly above everyone else. I’m also throwing in William Byon as a longshot because I love the odds. Additionally, I hate betting really short favorites, so I’m using the weekly Caesars profit boost to get Larson to a more palatable number.
- Kyle Larson to Win (+412) — used Caesars Sportsbook 50% profit boost on Wednesday
- Denny Hamlin to Win (+700) — as mentioned before with the #JordanJinx
- Kyle Busch to Win (+800)
- William Byron to Win (+1900)
A couple other longshots I might consider doing a #SaltBae sprinkle on are Martin Truex, Jr. (+1100 on FanDuel Sportsbook) and Ryan Blaney (also +1100 on FanDuel Sportsbook).
