After taking a weekend off of betting at Talladega (besides the Shitbox Special and a couple of small fliers) it’s time to get back on the horse with the Charlotte race on Sunday afternoon: the Bank of America ROVAL 400. This isn’t the typical Charlotte Motor Speedway that we all know, though: NASCAR is running the road course version of the track that includes certain parts of the speedway as well. This will be the fourth Cup Series race on the Charlotte ROVAL thus far. Ryan Blaney won the inaugural event while Chase Elliott has won the last two (surprise, surprise).
Need to find an edge on Head-to-Head betting matchups this week? Take a look at the Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order for Sunday’s race and find those slam dunk bets.
Betting Card for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte
#JordanJinx
AJ Allmendinger to Win (+2100) – I don’t particularly like the guy, so that’s one reason why he’s the #JordanJinx this weekend, but also, AJ Allmendinger is one of the best road course racers in NASCAR, and getting him to 21-to-1 odds is great value. In the Xfinity Series, Dinger is 2-for-2 at getting wins here at the Charlotte ROVAL–heading into the weekend anyway–and he finished 7th here in his only Cup Series start back in 2018 with JTG Daugherty Racing. On road courses this year in the Kaulig car, AJ has finished 7th, 5th, 29th, and then got the win at the Indy Road Course. He’ll have to start from way back in 33rd on Sunday afternoon but Allmendinger still has a legitimate shot to win this race.
Favorite Bet of the Week
Chris Buescher Top 20 Finish (-155) – It sure does seem like betting Chris Buescher for a top 20 is my favorite bet most weeks, doesn’t it? I swear I’m not a huge fan or anything, I just always see value here. Anyway, Buescher is a solid road course racer and has top 20 finishes in each of the last 16 races on this track type. Yes, you have to go back to 2016 when Buescher was with Front Row Motorsports to find the last time that he ended up worse than 20th on a road course. Here at the Charlotte ROVAL specifically, he’s finished 17th, 18th, and 20th in his three career starts.
Rest of Jordan’s Card
Chase Elliott to Win (+360) – As I mentioned on Twitter, I used Caesars Sportsbook’s 100% Profit Boost to get Chase’s odds to +360 on Sunday. It’s just so hard to bet against the guy that has finished 1st or 2nd in eight of the last ten road course races, plus the one that has went to victory lane in each of the last two events here at the Charlotte ROVAL specifically. Realistically, there are maybe two or three drivers that can contend with Chase Elliott on Sunday, and I’m taking the 2020 Cup Series Champ each time. Plus, Chase is only 9 points to the good above the Playoff cut line. He should be going all-out for a win on Sunday.
Joey Logano Top 5 Finish (+290) – My algorithm has Logano predicted to finish in 2nd on Sunday afternoon, so I’m definitely loving the +290 value here for a top 5 finish. Recently, Joey has had a rough go of things on the road courses–34th at Indy Road Course, 22nd at Watkins Glen, and 15th at Road America–but those weren’t all entirely his fault. Before that, Logano had three straight top 5 finishes on road courses this season, and he finished 2nd here at the Charlotte ROVAL in the fall of last year. In three career starts at this track, Logano has an average finish of 7.3.
DraftKings Parlay: All Team Penske Cars to Finish in the Top 10 (+1600) – It’s always fun each to bet a little bit on these random parlays that DraftKings throws out, but looking at this one, I’ll probably end up putting a few units on this one. First, my algorithm says this is going to happen, so that’s always a good sign. Second, it just passes the eye test: Ryan Blaney has a win here at the Charlotte ROVAL and has never finished worse than 8th in three starts, Joey Logano has never finished worse than 10th here in three starts, and Brad Keselowski has led in all three Charlotte ROVAL races and finished 5th here in 2019. As far as I’m concerned, the weakest link in this parlay is Keselowski, and that #2 team has been running significantly better in the Playoffs than we’re used to.
Tyler Reddick Top 20 Finish (-200) – Tyler Reddick’s starting position of 29th isn’t ideal for Sunday’s race at the Charlotte ROVAL, but all he has to do is have an incident-free race and he should be good for a top 20 finish. Reddick started 16th and finished 12th here at the Charlotte ROVAL last season and has finished top 20 in six of his eight career Cup Series road course starts. The two races he didn’t? At Indy Road Course earlier this year (he finished 21st) and at the Daytona Road Course back in February (major issues and finished 38th).
Additional #SaltBae Sprinkles
- Joey Logano to Win (+2500)
- Ryan Blaney to Win (+2600)
- AJ Allmendinger Top 3 Finish (+650)
- Chase Briscoe Top 20 Finish (-250)
- Ryan Preece Top 20 Finish (+140)
