The betting card continues to do well, and after another profitable race at Bristol last weekend (despite all of the late race shenanigans) we’re on to the gambling capital of the United States, Las Vegas, for the South Point 400 on Sunday evening. It was Kyle Larson in victory lane here in Sin City back in March, and he’s also going to be starting from the pole on Sunday night. Sportsbooks have Larson as the heavy favorite (as usual), but there’s some value in a few other drivers this weekend.
Las Vegas Betting Card for the South Point 400
#JordanJinx
Kyle Busch to Win (+1200) – Value. That’s all you can say here. We talked about this on the Stacking Dennys podcast episode this week (click here to listen). BetRivers opened up with the first odds on Monday and had Kyle Busch at 12-to-1, which was unbelievable in my eyes. For comparison, DraftKings Sportsbook opened up with Rowdy at 6-to-1. But even more important than value here is the fact that Kyle Busch can actually win this race. He won the Kansas event earlier this year, finished 3rd here in the first Vegas race, and also finished 3rd at Charlotte. If you throw in the two Atlanta races (also a 1.5-mile track but a “high wear” venue), he finished 5th and 2nd this season. Kyle Busch is significantly faster in the 550hp package, which is what the cars are running this weekend, and on the “low wear” 1.5-mile tracks, he’s finished 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 5th, and 6th over the last six races dating back to the 2020 season.
Favorite Bet of the Week
Chris Buescher Top 20 Finish (-125) – DraftKings Sportsbook came out with their top 20 lines early this week, and Buescher was an immediate hammer from me–and as I noted on Twitter, the largest top 20 bet I’ve made this season. Looking at the last seven races here at Las Vegas, Buescher has a better average finish (14.7) than several “contending” drivers, including Chase Elliott, William Byron, Kurt Busch, Christopher Bell, and others. Over those seven races, Buescher hasn’t finished worse than 18th, and he even came home 9th here in the Playoff race last season. Looking at the 550hp package races this season, Buescher has yet to finish worse than 20th and he’s been really solid on the low wear 1.5-mile tracks specifically, with results of 14th here in the first Vegas race, 8th at Kansas, and 8th at Charlotte. As of Wednesday evening, Buescher top 20 was at -165 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but I still think there’s value there and would bet it down to -175.
Rest of Jordan’s Card
Kyle Busch Top 5 Finish (-106) – Unless you skipped over the paragraph above regarding the Kyle Busch to win bet, you’re not surprised that this is on the betting card as well. The Buescher top 20 bet is going to be the largest one I make this weekend, but Kyle Busch for a top 5 is a close second. I also threw some money down on Kyle Busch Top 3 Finish (+200).
Ryan Blaney Top 5 Finish (+205) – Ryan Blaney popped in my algorithm this weekend, and he’s really good here at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Looking at the last nine races at this track, Blaney has finished 7th or better in all but two of them, and has finished inside the top 8 in 12 of the last 16 Stages in Sin City. Blaney finished 5th here at Las Vegas in the first race this season and has ended up 6th or better in six of the nine 550hp intermediate races in 2021. Flashing back to last season’s Playoff races on the “low wear” 1.5-mile tracks, Blaney ended up 7th at Vegas, 7th at Kansas, and 4th at Texas.
Ryan Blaney Top Ford (+390) – These odds really don’t make any sense, as Kevin Harvick is the favorite at +260 among the top Fords. It’s almost like books are overreacting to last week at Bristol. Either way, this is great value to bad Blaney as the top Ford on Sunday night; my algorithm has him comfortably ahead of Harvick and his teammates, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Top 20 Finish (-110) – If Ricky Stenhouse doesn’t have issues on Sunday night–yeah, that’s a pretty big IF with who we’re talking about–this bet should be very easy for him to cash. Looking at the 550hp package races this season, Stenhouse has finished 15th or better six of the nine events, but ran into major issues in the other three. Unfortunately that’s just how things go in NASCAR sometimes. Still, Stenhouse has finished 14th or better in five of the last nine Las Vegas races but is on this weird “every other race in Sin City is a bad finish” streak. If that continues on Sunday night–again, a big IF–then bettors like myself won’t be too happy, but based on speed, this is a great bet to get at -110 odds.
Austin Dillon Top 20 Finish (-250) – This top 20 opened at -170 odds, and let me tell you: I’m really kicking myself for not grabbing that on Monday evening. I completely overlooked it when making sure I got the Buescher top 20 at -125. Anyway, getting AD for a top 20 on Sunday night is still good value even though it’s now at -250 odds. I wouldn’t bet it if it goes any shorter, but Austin Dillon has been really good in the 550hp package this season, with finishes of 12th at Las Vegas, 10th at Kansas, and 6th at Charlotte. In the nine races with this package, Austin has an average finish of 14.2 and an average running position of 12.9, which is 12th-best in the series (and better than Joey Logano).
Outright Winners
- Kyle Larson to Win (+525) – Used the Caesars 50% boost to get Larson at this number. I typically don’t like betting heavy favorites, but I don’t mind getting Larson at +525 and then having the other, longer bets alongside with it this week.
- Ryan Blaney to Win (+1700) – Again, just great value here at 17-to-1 for a guy that my algorithm has projected to finish 3rd on Sunday night. Additionally, it’s worth noting that Team Penske has won three of the last six Las Vegas races.
