Well, last week was rough to say the least. My apologies to anybody that tailed the Austin Dillon top 20 bet for the Indianapolis Road Course and then also followed along as I jinxed him on Twitter into getting caught up in that final wreck. Thankfully we’re on to Michigan International Speedway, where it’s rare to see many wrecks (if any), and thus not a whole lot of craziness. Kyle Larson is the heavy favorite this weekend and he’s on the pole. Can anyone beat the fastest man in motorsports?
Michigan Betting Card
#JordanJinx
Kyle Busch to Win (+900) – If you follow me on Twitter, you probably already knew this was going to be the #JordanJinx on Monday night/early Tuesday morning, since I was going through the reasons why I liked Kyle Busch this week. To summarize, he’s finished 6th or better in the last six Michigan races, has the best average finish in the 550hp package this year, and 3rd-best average running position in the package as well. Additionally, Rowdy had the best average finish on 2-mile tracks in 2020, and has the 3rd-best average finish over the last four Michigan races. As of this posting (Thursday evening), you can still get Kyle Busch at +850 on PointsBet.
Favorite Bet of the Week
Ryan Blaney Top 10 Finish (-110) – I really like Ryan Blaney this weekend–plus my algorithm has him predicted to finish 6th–and although most of the time I look for plus-money bets to make, I’ll take him getting a top 10 on Sunday at -110 odds. I actually think Blaney can contend for a top 3 finish here on Sunday, to be honest with you. On the 2-mile tracks last season, Young Ryan Blaney had the 5th-best average running position, and over the last four Michigan races specifically he ranks 8th-best in that category. In the 550hp package this year, he’s also 8th-best in average running position. Blaney has had a few “bad” runs in this package this year but he finished 5th at Las Vegas, won at Atlanta, finished 5th and 6th at Pocono, and 5th in the second Atlanta race. He’s ended up 9th or better in five of his last nine Michigan starts and has ended up inside the top 10 in ten of the last twelve Stages here.
Rest of Jordan’s Card
Kyle Busch Top 5 Finish (+115) – See notes above on Kyle Busch and head on over to BetRivers to grab this at +115 odds. By the way, you can also combine this with a Truex top 4 Championship finish for a nice little +491 parlay…
Ryan Blaney Top Ford (+800) – See notes above on Ryan Blaney. I love the 8-to-1 value here for top Ford finisher.
Ryan Blaney Top 5 Finish (+300) – Again, see notes above on Ryan Blaney.
Chris Buescher Top 20 Finish (+130) – The top 20 lines were pretty weak for Sunday’s FireKeepers Casino 400, but there’s value here with Buescher at +130. I’m not going too heavy on it personally (compared to previous weeks anyway) but it’s worth putting some coin down on. Buescher has finished 20th or better in six of his last seven Michigan starts, and in the 550hp package this year he’s 8-for-8 when it comes to finishing inside that range. Starting up in 11th helps a bit, too.
