And that, my friends, is why we call it the Jordan Jinx.
Last week at Las Vegas, I went all in on Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman. And they both looked great in that race–until they didn’t. Chase had the best car at the beginning of the race last weekend and then his pit crew killed it, ruining his day. And Bowman ran around the top 5 for much of the afternoon before ultimately pitting late.
Frustrating.
But we’re on to Phoenix and there are some bets that I’m equally as confident in this weekend. I guess you have to take that with a grain of salt, but let’s get to the bets!
Make sure you check out the algorithm predicted finishing order for this race by clicking here–it is a great tool to find an edge on head-to-head betting matchups! Also, if you enjoy this site and everything it has to offer, consider supporting by donating here.
Top Bets for Phoenix
2u on Brad Keselowski (+100) over Kevin Harvick – Honestly, I’m not really sure how Brad isn’t favored in this matchup, but you can head on over to the William Hill sportsbook app and grab this. On pure speed, Keselowski is superior to Kevin Harvick in this matchup. On track history, Harvick has the clear advantage. But even if there weren’t concerns around Stewart-Haas’ speed this weekend, I’d still take Keselowski here. Looking back at least year, BK had the 2nd-best average finish (3.7) on flat tracks, the 3rd-best average running position (6.5), and here at Phoenix he was as strong, if not stronger. Kez had the 3rd-best Green Flag Speed in last year’s spring race and also led 82 laps, and in the fall race he ranked #1 in Green Flag Speed and posted 47 fastest laps. Back a few years ago, yes, Harvick was unstoppable at Phoenix, but he doesn’t have that edge anymore. Plus, the speed just isn’t really in this #4 Ford right now, but it’s definitely there for the #2 crew. For what it’s worth, my algorithm has Keselowski predicted to finish 2nd and Harvick predicted to finish 8th on Sunday.
2u on Kyle Larson Top 5 Finish (+165) – Okay, warning: I already bet Kyle Larson at 10-to-1 to win this race, as I posted about earlier this week. So if you’re a firm believer in the #JordanJinx, you might want to stay away from this one. But I love the value here, probably even more than the value of Larson to win on Sunday. Even while he was with Chip Ganassi Racing, Larson was a constant top 5 threat at Phoenix. Over his last eight starts here, he’s finished 6th or better six times. And now, he’s in a Hendrick car, and Chase Elliott was probably the best in both Phoenix races last season. And on a final note, my algorithm has Larson projected to win on Sunday, so yeah, definitely betting him for a top 5.
1u on Matt DiBenedetto Top 10 Finish (+175) – I think a lot of people are overlooking just how strong Matt DiBenedetto was on flat tracks last year. We all know that Penske was the class of the field on speed at this track type in 2020, but DiBenedetto had the 6th-best average finish (10.2) and the 11th-best average running position (12.4). Here at Phoenix, Matty D ranked 11th in Green Flag Speed in the spring race and 7th in that category in the fall. I also like Tyler Reddick (+230) for a top 10 finish but my Best Bet this week is DiBenedetto to hit that mark, as I’m just a little more confident there.
