Race #35 of the NASCAR Cup Series season kicks off on Sunday afternoon at Martinsville Speedway with the Xfinity 500. We’re getting down to the last leg of this season and now 500 laps separate us and the final four drivers that will battle it out for the 2020 Championship at Phoenix. This is sure to be a very entertaining race this weekend with the potential to get a little crazy, but there are a few bets that I’m very confident heading into the Xfinity 500 with.
My Favorite Bets for Martinsville
Joey Logano Top 5 Finish (+120) – I love Logano this week. I’m all over him in DFS, both DraftKings and FanDuel, and also in the betting world. I have some smaller bets on Joey to win (+900 on DraftKings Sportsbook) and also to finish top 3 (+270 on FanDuel Sportsbook) but my largest bet on him this weekend will be to finish top 5 at +120 odds. My algorithm thinks Logano wins on Sunday (click here to see that) and all signs point to a great run out of this #22 team this weekend; Joey has finished 6th or better in four of his last seven Martinsville starts, has the best average running position (4.3) on the shorter flat tracks this year, and ranks #1 in Green Flag Speed on shorter flat tracks in 2020. His average finish on this track type this season is also the best in the series, at 3.0 over the four races.
Team Penske to Win (+225) – This season on the shorter flat tracks–Phoenix, Martinsville, New Hampshire, and Richmond–Team Penske is 3-for-4 when it comes to winning, with the first race here at Martinsville being the one that they didn’t get to victory lane. If you remember back, though, the Penske trio finished 2nd-3rd-4th that night and combined to lead 273 of the 500 laps. I just talked about how strong Joey Logano has been on the shorter flat tracks this season, and Brad Keselowski is right there with him: 2nd-best in average running position (5.9), 2nd-best in average finish (4.0), and 4th-best in Green Flag Speed. As far as Ryan Blaney goes, he finished 2nd here at Martinsville back in June and has ended up inside the top 5 in four of his five starts here with Penske. It’s only a matter of time before he gets a win at this track. The Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas are the favorite organization to win Sunday’s Xfinity 500 at Martinsville (at +135) but I actually like the Penske trio’s chances more.
Matt DiBenedetto Top 10 Finish (+160) – I talked about Matt DiBenedetto in my DraftKings article this week (click here to read that) and once I saw that DraftKings Sportsbook had him at +160 for a top 10 finish I had to put even more of my money where my mouth it. Matt DiBenedetto is running the #21 Ford for Wood Brothers Racing but it’s basically a Penske Ford with how much support the organization gets. You just read why I like Penske so much this weekend, so this bet should make sense. Even more, DiBenedetto ended up 7th here in the first Martinsville race this season and ranks 7th-best in Green Flag Speed on the shorter flat tracks in 2020. His average finish of 10.8 on them is 6th-best in the series and his average running position of 12.0 is 9th-best.
