Daytona Speedweeks charges on this afternoon with Daytona 500 qualifying followed by the Advance Auto Parts Clash. There is a threat of rain that could affect both of these events, but the unofficial NASCAR weatherman (Brian Neudorff) has the chances of racing at 60%, so at least it’s somewhat optimistic.
Looking at the Clash event from a betting perspective is very similar to any other restrictor plate race at Daytona or Talladega: literally anybody in the field can win the races at these two tracks. The good news for bettors in today’s Clash exhibition race, though, is that there’s only 20 cars in the field–which makes the guys with longer a bit of a better value, as they have less drivers to beat than a “normal” race.
Looking at recent Clash races, Ford swept the top 4 last season, and Brad Keselowski nabbed his first win in the event despite starting 17th. His teammate, Joey Logano, started 9th and won in 2017, with Denny Hamlin winning from 15th starting spot in 2016.
In case you didn’t know, I’m pointing out the starting spots for a reason: the average starting position of Clash winners since the 2002 season has been 12.5, with nearly two out of every three starting 14th or worse. You can click here for the starting lineup of this year’s Clash.
The driver I’m going to roll the dice with in today’s Advance Auto Parts Clash is Kyle Larson at 26-to-1 odds. What can I say, I like an underdog on these tracks. This will be Kyle’s 5th start in this exhibition race, and so far he’s put together a relatively impressive average finsih of 8.3 in this event, with two top 5 finishes in 2015 and 2016 and another top 10 in last year’s Clash.
Another reason I like Larson? He has a new teammate in Kurt Busch this season, who is an ace when it comes to getting to the front at restrictor plate tracks. Busch tends to get caught up in more than his fair share of wrecks, though, plus he’s not as attractive sitting there at 18-to-1.
2019 Advance Auto Parts Clash at Daytona Odds to Win
|Odds to Win|
|Martin Truex Jr||12||19/1|