The New Hampshire 301 is this afternoon at Loudon and we have Jimmie Johnson on the pole. It seems like the races that we run here rarely have the winner that most people expect. Today, Kyle Busch–who starts 2nd–is the favorite (+450) followed by Kevin Harvick (+600) and then Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, and Jimmie Johnson all at (+725). Track position is going to be important today, as is having a mistake-free race by both the driver and the pit crew. And don’t forget that it’s not uncommon to see the races at Loudon come down to fuel mileage.
Race Day Betting Picks for the Loudon New Hampshire 301
The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 10:00 am ET on July 17, 2016 and came from Bovada.
BET OF THE DAY: Carl Edwards Top 5 Finish (EVEN) – The sports books aren’t really high on Cousin Carl this weekend but we are. This #19 Toyota has been fast all weekend long and would probably be starting inside the top 5 if Martin Truex, Jr. didn’t knock Edwards out of qualifying at the last minute. On Saturday, most of the garage was pointing toward that #19 Toyota in the morning session, and for good reason: Edwards had the fastest lap, best five-lap average, and best ten-lap average. In Happy Hour he was 8th-fastest on the overall speed chart and ranked 2nd in ten-lap average. And even though Carl only has three top 5 finishes in twenty-three career starts here at Loudon, you can’t discount the fact that he is now in Joe Gibbs Racing equipment (they have a definite advantage here) as well as the fact that Edwards has been one of the best at similar tracks this season–2nd at Phoenix, 1st at Richmond, 1st at Bristol, 6th at Martinsville. Carl has never won here at New Hampshire Motor Speedway but we seriously think he is one of the legitimate contenders here today. So much so that we’re also putting money on him to win the New Hampshire 301 (+750) as well.
Toyota Winning Manufacturer (+130) – When you look at the drivers that should be contending for the win today, it’s dominated by those driving Toyotas. We have Kyle Busch ranked #1 heading into today’s New Hampshire 301, followed by teammate Carl Edwards–both Toyotas. We have Kevin Harvick ranked P3, but that team seems to have lost it’s clutch gene as of late, although they do have a good car today. Brad Keselowski is 4th on our list today, but his car hasn’t shown race-winning speed this weekend, at least in our opinion. We then have Matt Kenseth in 5th, who has a car fast enough to win but is going to have to overcome the mid-pack starting spot. In other words, we would be surprised if a Toyota wasn’t in victory lane today. Looking at the last eight races here at Loudon, Toyota owns five wins, Ford has two, and Chevrolet has one–way back in 2012 with Kasey Kahne.
That’s really the only bets we have this week. None of the driver matchups looked very good to us.
