The key thing to remember with tonight’s Coca-Cola 600 is that things are going to change a lot. Cars that are fast going into the race might not have that same speed later on when it matters most. With the two practice sessions on Saturday, it was believed through the garage area that the morning session was closest to what it will be like at the end of Sunday’s Coke 600. The Happy Hour practice session was so hot and slick that those speeds didn’t carry much weight with many people.
Pole sitter Martin Truex, Jr. is the odds-on favorite to win tonight, coming in at 3.5-to-1 odds. Jimmie Johnson follows him at +550 while Kevin Harvick is listed at +725 for tonight’s race. We agree with Vegas that this year’s Coca-Cola 600 is going to come down to either Truex or Johnson, and those two are pretty much in a league of their own. But you never know how strategy and, for tonight, rain is going to affect this race.
Race Day Betting Picks for the Charlotte Coke 600
The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 3:00 pm ET on May 29, 2016 and came from Bovada.
BET OF THE DAY: Paul Menard (+120) over Greg Biffle – There’s some great value in this matchup because of how over-valued Greg Biffle is this weekend. Yeah, he finished 2nd in this race one year ago but let’s not forget that that race came down to fuel mileage. That’s really the only reason that Biffle was anywhere near the front. When looking at these two drivers, Paul Menard has a tendency to finish around where he starts. Biffle, on the other hand, tends to fade. Tonight, Menard will start 11th and Biffle will start 6th. That aforementioned 2nd-place finish for The Biff is his only finish better than 16th in the last six Charlotte races while Paul Menard has finished 14th, 8th, and 13th in the last three Coke 600s. We know that our “Bet of the Day” selections have been cold lately, but we haven’t been this confident in a bet in quite a while. Menard has had a better car than Biffle in every single intermediate track race this season and that should be the case once again here at Charlotte.
Chase Elliott Top 5 Finish (+250) – This isn’t going to be an easy race for Chase Elliott. While it may just seem like an extra 100 miles to us watching the race on TV, that’s a lot of extra racing for the guys in the cars (and the engines, too). Now, 2.5-to-1 odds isn’t a tremendous amount of return for a top 5 finish from this rookie, but it’s still better than a lot of other prop bets. This weekend, the #24 Chevrolet has been one of the few cars that have been consistently fast off the truck. Chase will start 12th tonight and had good speed in both practice sessions on Saturday. He’s also in elite equipment and has posted a top 5 finish in four of the last six Sprint Cup races. Not only do we think Chase has a legitimate shot at a top 5 tonight, it wouldn’t be that crazy (to us) if he somehow stole a win.
Kevin Harvick to win (+725) – We’re still a little pissed off about how terrible the #4 pit crew was at Dover, but it’s better to just move on. Still, with an extra 100 miles to run here on Sunday night, that’s just giving those guys one or two more opportunities to ruin Harvick’s track position. With that being said, if you would have told us that we’d be able to get the #4 Chevrolet at 7.25-to-1 odds earlier in the week, we would have started drooling. Harvick has been the absolute best driver here at Charlotte over the last two years and has finished 1st or 2nd in three of those four races. Heading into tonight’s Coke 600, we have Truex and Johnson as the two favorites, but if those guys happen to run into some bad luck during the race, Harvick is going to be right there with the next best car. Don’t forget that this race can easily come down to a strategy call and Harvick’s crew chief, Rodney Childers, is one of the best in the business at that.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (+120) over Greg Biffle – Wow, Vegas must really like Greg Biffle tonight. We just don’t understand why. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is a Roush-Fenway driver that is on the up-and-up. Greg Biffle is a Roush-Fenway driver that is on a major decline. Over the last six Sprint Cup races, Stenhouse has finished 16th or better in five of those events, and over that same timespan Greg Biffle has finished inside the top 20 just twice. When it comes to starting position for tonight’s Coke 600, Stenhouse will roll off the grid from 3rd while Biffle starts 6th. As far as finishes, half of Stenhouse’s eight career starts here at Charlotte have ended with him inside the top 15. We already went over Biffle’s recent results earlier.
