The races at Dover International Speedway are pretty straight-forward, and there’s really only a handful of drivers that have a legitimate shot at winning (as far as pure horsepower and driving talent). Chevrolet has had a chokehold on this place as of late, winning seven of the last eight races at “The Monster Mile.” The only race they didn’t win during that span was back in 2012 when Brad Keselowski won on a fuel mileage gamble in his dodge. Our betting picks as of late have been a little cold (kind of like Dover today), but we’re confident in what we’re putting money on this week.
We typically don’t like to bet on any drivers before we see practice and qualifying, but Kevin Harvick was listed at +550 earlier this week and we jumped all over it. Now that we’ve gotten to race day, he sits as the favorite now at 4-to-1 while Kyle Busch is at 4.5-to-1. We’re pretty confident that this race is going to come down to either Harvick or Kyle Busch, too.
Race Day Betting Picks for the Dover AAA 400
The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 10:00 am ET on May 15, 2016 and came from Bovada.
BET OF THE DAY: Kevin Harvick to Win (+400) – Yes, we already have an earlier bet on Kevin Harvick to win the AAA 400 Drive for Autism today, but we’re doubling down. This #4 team finally got the monkey off their back here at Dover last fall, as Harvick got to victory lane for the first time in his career at “The Monster Mile.” And that wasn’t just a win for this team: it was a complete domination. They brought back that same chassis for this weekend’s race and we think that we’re in store for a very similar outcome today. Based on practice speeds and everything else, we think that really only Kyle Busch has a car that could compete with Harvick today. It’s going to take a mess up by this #4 team for that to happen, though, and our gut tells us Kevin Harvick is going to grab his second win of the 2016 season today. We haven’t felt this confident about the #4 Chevrolet since Phoenix.
BET OF THE DAY #2: Martin Truex, Jr. Top 5 Finish (+105) – We’re feeling pretty confident with our both our Fantasy NASCAR picks and our betting picks today at Dover, so you’re getting a second “Bet of the Day.” After this #78 team got their win taken away from them at Kansas last week thanks to a part failure on the tire, they have to be out looking for revenge this weekend at Dover. And if you look back at last season, this was right about the point of the year where Truex was about to grab the win at Pocono. We think a trip to victory lane is coming soon for this #78 team as well. There’s no doubt that there’s speed in this Toyota, as Truex looked very solid over the long run during Happy Hour on Saturday and had the 2nd-best ten-lap average right behind Kevin Harvick. Statistically, “The Monster Mile” has actually been Truex’s best track over the last two seasons, as he has an average finish of 7.5 over the last four races here. We have Martin ranked 3rd heading into today’s AAA 400 Drive for Autism, and if Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch run into trouble during the race, we just might see this #78 Toyota in victory lane.
Chevrolet Winning Manufacturer (EVEN) – Here’s a nice way to double up. We have Kevin Harvick ranked as the hands-down favorite going into today’s AAA 400 Drive for Autism. Kyle Busch’s Toyota might lead some laps today, but we honestly think it’s going to be a dominating effort by this #4 team. Don’t forget that they brought the same chassis that they raced last fall here with–leading 355 of the 400 laps en route to Harvick’s first win at “The Monster Mile.” We’re going all in on Kevin Harvick today. Any time he is fast off the truck and on the pole, the rest of the garage should be worried.
Chase Elliott Top 5 Finish (+375) – It takes a lot of talent to tame Miles the Monster in your first Sprint Cup race at Dover, but I think it’s been made pretty clear that Chase Elliott is in no way lacking in the talent department. It might be a tall order to expect a top 5 finish out of this rookie today, but we’re confident that he has the car to do so–and that’s half the battle. He also has a very experienced team that has had success here at Dover in the past. The #24 Chevrolet was one of the few cars that showed consistent speed through both practice sessions on Saturday, and during Happy Hour, Chase was 5th-fastest on both the overall speed chart as well as the ten-lap average chart. Looking at the last five Sprint Cup races overall, Chase has posted three top 5 finishes (including his 4th-place run at Bristol) and hasn’t ended up worse than 12th. He’s going to need to have a mistake-free race here at Dover on Sunday to even have a chance at a top 5, but we think he can do it, and it’s worth a small bet.
LATE ADD: As far as driver matchups go, we really didn’t see many that we loved. One that caught our eye and we’re putting a small bet on is Danica Patrick (+120) over Casey Mears.
