Typically there are only a few drivers that really have a shot to win here at Martinsville Speedway, but you always have to consider the fact that these short track races are very unpredictable, and anything can happen with a late caution and gamble on pit road. Still, there’s a reason that Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin have a combined 13 wins here at “The Paperclip” while Tony Stewart has three, Kurt Busch has two, and no other driver has more than one. Martinsville is a track that requires a lot of talent, managing of equipment, and a great car. In other words, the cream rises to the top here.
After winning the pole on Friday, Joey Logano shot up to the favorite for Sunday’s STP 500 at +450. Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin are close behind at +500.
Race Day Betting Picks for the Martinsville STP 500
The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 10:30 am ET on April 3, 2016 and came from Bovada.
BET OF THE DAY: Carl Edwards (-105) over Kurt Busch – We’re still undefeated on our “Bet of the Day” selections this season, so let’s try to keep the streak alive. Kurt Busch (-125) is actually favored in this matchup, but we can’t–for the life of us–figure out why. Joe Gibbs Racing is the best (or 2nd-best) organization at this race track, and for whatever reason Stewart-Haas Racing simply struggles here–and it’s quite apparent today. You know SHR doesn’t quite have a track figured out when Kevin Harvick might struggle to finish top 5. Anyway, back to this matchup. Carl Edwards has finished between 12th and 17th in five of his last six Martinsville races while Kurt Busch has just two results better than 18th over that same span. Neither of these teams have found a lot of speed this weekend, but the #19 crew tends to be better at adjusting on their car during the race, while the #41 team needs to have speed right off the truck. Plus, Cousin Carl has a better pit crew, which will be a big advantage during the race.
BONUS BET OF THE DAY: Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Top 5 Finish (+180) – This is a late add but we’re all over this prop bet. See below our thoughts on Dale Earnhardt, Jr. today.
Joey Logano (+450) – Once he won the pole on Friday, there was no doubt that Joey Logano was going to be the favorite on Sunday. Remember, this #22 Ford won the pole for both Martinsville races in 2015 as well, leading 315 laps between the two. He finished 3rd in last year’s spring race and was well on his way to the win in the fall race until Matt Kenseth exacted his revenge. It was noted during Happy Hour on Saturday that this #22 team is running the same setup this weekend that they ran in that fall race and that alone should make the competition scared. Add in the fact that Logano has the #1 pit stall on Sunday and we think it’s going to take quite a bit to beat this #22 Ford–and it doesn’t look like many cars will be able to do that, at least heading into the race. We’re glad we grabbed Joey at +700 earlier this week (read here).
LONG SHOT BET OF THE DAY: Ryan Newman (+6800) – Typically we don’t like to waste our money with long shot plays here at Martinsville, but we’re willing to put a little bit on Ryan Newman this weekend for a variety of reasons. First, he has gone to victory lane here before–back in 2012–and Newman has finishes of 3rd and 7th in the last two fall events here. Also, “The Rocketman” really likes his car this weekend, so much so that the #31 team quit practicing early on Saturday. It’s not very often that something like that happens at a track like Martinsville. Finally, 68-to-1 odds are incredible for a previous winner, especially when you add in the fact that the #31 Chevrolet is fast and will start 5th.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (+1200) – There are six other drivers that are more favored than Dale Earnhardt, Jr. today. Apparently Vegas hasn’t been paying very much attention and was just looking at Junior’s middle-of-the-road practice speeds in Happy Hour. Don’t be fooled, though, this #88 Chevrolet is a great pick for the STP 500 today. Earnhardt is one of the most honest drivers when it comes to posting on social media, and after Happy Hour he said he was happy with the car and explained why they struggled a bit in that final practice (and how they’re going to fix it). Yes, Junior is going to start this year’s STP 500 from the 21st spot, but we’re not worried about that at all. Why? He has finished 4th, 1st, and 3rd over the last four Martinsville races while starting 22nd, 23rd, and 26th, respectively. We really believe Earnhardt will be a contender for the win in today’s race and being able to hit +1200 with a winner at Martinsville would be great.
