Looking back at Fontana, we were all set to cash another win with Kevin Harvick until the late caution came out. Situations like that happened so many times during the 2015 season that we’ve learned to just move on. Sometimes picking the best car simply doesn’t work out. Our Race Day “Bet of the Day” did cash, however, so it was nice to make some money there.
Now we’re at Martinsville Speedway for the STP 500, and it’s pretty easy to already narrow down the field to the few favorites that are going to be in contention on Sunday. This is a half-mile short track that has some unpredictability built into it, but we still tend to see the same drivers up front each time we stop here. Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers with 8 career wins at “The Paperclip” while Denny Hamlin has gone to victory lane on 5 separate occasions here.
Johnson is the favorite heading into Sunday’s STP 500 (+350) followed by Denny Hamlin at +550 and Kevin Harvick at +650.
Early Betting Picks for Martinsville
The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 7:30 am ET on March 31, 2016 and came from Bovada.
Kurt Busch (+1800) – We love these odds for Kurt Busch. The #41 team had an off-weekend at Fontana a couple of weeks ago, but most teams are bound to have those every once in a while. The fact of the matter is this: this #41 Chevrolet has been one of the fastest cars in the garage for four of the five Sprint Cup races this season, and we’re expecting Kurt to be very fast once again here at Martinsville on Sunday. He’s a two-time winner at the track known as “The Paperclip”, with the most recent coming in this race two years ago. That was the one where Busch got a bunch of damage early but was still able to wheel his car around and take the checkered flag. Now for the bad news: that has been Kurt’s only top 10 finish here at Martinsville in his last TWENTY starts. But what’s that old saying–‘streaks are made for breaking’? Something like that. Fun fact: in each of the last two seasons, Kurt has won in his sixth start, and the STP 500 on Sunday marks the sixth Sprint Cup race of 2016.
Denny Hamlin (+550) – We typically shy away from putting any money on the favorites this early in the week, but getting Denny Hamlin at 5.5-to-1 odds might end up being a steal when it’s all said and done. This is arguably the best track on the circuit for Denny Hamlin and he’s off to a very good start here in 2016 with three top 5s in the first five races. Oh, and did we mention that Hamlin is the defending winner of this race? He ran top 5 in both Martinsville races last season and the Joe Gibbs Racing cars might be even better right now than they were at their peak in 2015. If Hamlin qualifies his #11 Toyota near the front and looks good in practice this weekend, we’ll probably see his odds on Sunday get closer to Johnson’s +350 right now. If you’re putting money on Denny this week, now will probably be the time to do it so you get the most value.
Joey Logano (+700) – We see Joey Logano ending up in the +500 range on race day, so locking him in now at 7-to-1 odds isn’t the craziest idea in the world. Young Joey hasn’t gone to victory lane in a Sprint Cup race here at “The Paperclip” but he’s been knocking on the door for quite some time. Hell, he probably could have won both races here last season, and was well on his way to the win before Matt Kenseth dumped him. Logano has been the pole winner for the last two Martinsville races and has posted three top 5 finishes in the last four. Over that span, he has never had a driver rating under 112 and he has led a total of over 400 laps. No other active driver has even crossed the 300 laps led mark at Martinsville over the last two years. The Penske Fords aren’t as strong as the were at this time last season, but the #22 Ford should still be fast enough to have a shot at the STP 500 win here on Sunday. And don’t forget that Penske typically gets very good gas mileage our of their race cars, and we’ve seen races here come down to fuel mileage before…
