Last week at Phoenix, the NASCAR Sprint Cup race went just as expected with Kevin Harvick taking the checkered flag, although Carl Edwards almost ruined that party. Even though we were only able to lock Harvick in at 3-to-1 odds, a win is still a win, and going 3-for-4 to start the 2016 season is great in our opinion. Now we set our sights on Fontana, California, where the Auto Club 400 will be held on Sunday. Auto Club Speedway is rough, 2-mile race track that will have many racing grooves to choose from during the race. Typically the “rim riders” that are up against the wall carry the most speed through the corners, but if you can get your car to work around the bottom, that’s an option, too.
The Sprint Cup Series’ lone annual stop at Auto Club Speedway typically provides some of the best intermediate track racing of the season, and with the great racing we’ve already seen because of the new low downforce package in 2016, Sunday’s Auto Club 400 has the potential to not just be a good race, but a great one. Jimmie Johnson enters the race weekend as the favorite (at +450) with Harvick and Kyle Busch close behind at +500.
Early Betting Picks for Fontana (Auto Club)
The driver odds in this post are accurate as of 2:30 pm ET on March 16, 2016 and came from Bovada.
Kurt Busch (+1200) – We love this play heading into the race weekend, and we hopped all over it once the initial Auto Club 400 odds came out. Thus far through the first month of the season, Kurt Busch’s #41 Chevrolet has had more speed than almost all of the race cars in the Sprint Cup garage, and that should be the case once again in California this weekend. Now, the real question is when this team is finally going to put a full race together, as they’ve had the tendency to fade about mid-race on so far. If you flash back to the 2015 Fontana race, however, you’ll remember that Kurt Busch would have gone to victory lane if it wasn’t for the phantom debris caution. He ended up finishing 3rd last year, and that gives Kurt three straight top 5 finishes here at Auto Club Speedway. It’s hard not to consider the #41 Chevrolet one of the top cars heading into the race weekend (we have him top 3), and being able to get him at 12-to-1 odds right now is an incredible value. We look for Kurt Busch to go down to +600 or so on race day, so lock him in while you can.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (+1000) – This #88 team has been really solid ever since their misfortune at Daytona, and now we’re going to a race track that Dale Earnhardt, Jr. really enjoys–and one that he has found success at recently. Over the last four seasons, Junior has never finished worse than 12th in a Sprint Cup race at Fontana, and he has three finishes of 6th or better over that span, including a runner-up result in 2014. Going back to the Atlanta race a couple of weeks ago–which is another worn out, old race track–Earnhardt ran 2nd to teammate Jimmie Johnson. We like the value of Kurt Busch at 12-to-1 a lot more than Earnhardt, Jr. at 10-to-1, but the latter is worth a small play heading into the Auto Club 400 race weekend.
Joey Logano (+800) – This is another one of those bets that we’re not overly excited about, but how often are you going to get Joey Logano at 8-to-1 odds at an intermediate race track? Joey has never went to victory lane here in Fontana but he did post a career-best 3rd here in his first season with Penske Racing (2013). The Fords of Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski have been hard to judge through the first four races of 2016, but it was no fluke that they finished 1-2 a couple of weeks ago in Las Vegas. Keselowski won this race last season (thanks, in part, to NASCAR) and it wouldn’t surprise us one bit to see his Penske Racing teammate go to victory lane this year. Remember, Logano said that the #22 Ford is more of a long run car this season, and we could definitely see a bunch of those this weekend. The 2012 Fontana race had just one caution, although there have been a total of 25 yellow flags thrown at Auto Club Speedway races over the last three years.
